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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 486

2 months ago

WW 486 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 041900Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 486 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota Northeastern South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon along a cold front arcing across northern MN, eastern ND, and north-central SD. Strong buoyancy is in place ahead of this front, fostering the potential for robust updrafts. Vertical shear is modest across much of the area, which could limit storm organization and promote a quick transition to a mostly linear mode. The only exception is across north-central/northeast MN where vertical shear should remain strong enough to support stronger, more organized storm structures. Damaging gusts are the primary risk, but isolated large to very large hail is also possible, particularly over north-central/northeast MN. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles south of Jamestown ND to 25 miles north northeast of Ely MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Mosier Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Pacific Map

2 months ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 042315
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, partly
associated with a tropical wave, is centered a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is
anticipated during the next few days, and a tropical depression is
expected to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Hagen

NHC Webmaster