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MD 1571 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 1571 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwestern Kansas...southeastern Colorado...northeastern New Mexico...and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 052229Z - 052330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are ongoing this afternoon across portions of southwestern Kansas, southeastern Colorado, northeastern New Mexico, and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. A watch appears unlikely, however trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...Storms are ongoing to the south of a stationary boundary draped across west-central Kansas and east-central Colorado. South of the boundary, moist southeasterly flow and strong surface heating have resulted in moderate to strong instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) with steep low-level lapse rates. Flow aloft is fairly weak, which yields about 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, so the multicell character of convection with occasional transient supercells are expected to continue. The supercell updrafts may pose a risk for large hail this evening, given the favorable thermodynamic environment along with straight-line hodographs. Additionally, the strongest clusters of storms may produce severe gusts given the steep low-level lapse rates before the diurnal increase in convective inhibition later this evening. A watch seems unlikely at this time, but trends will be monitored. ..Supinie/Gleason.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34920384 34850498 35010549 35600547 36670516 37810418 38450247 38570100 38049977 37609957 36759959 36050065 35190305 34920384 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0488 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0488 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 488 SEVERE TSTM SD 052240Z - 060700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 440 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A small but intense thunderstorm cluster will spread east-southeastward across western South Dakota this evening into the early overnight hours. Scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with the cluster. Peak gusts may reach up to 70-80 mph on an isolated basis. Occasional severe hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles south southwest of Buffalo SD to 10 miles east northeast of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE BIL TO 65 ENE BIL TO 70 W MLS TO 85 E LWT TO 50 ENE LWT. ..SPC..07/05/25 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...UNR...RIW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC003-005-011-017-021-025-033-055-069-071-075-079-087-103-105- 109-052340- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIG HORN BLAINE CARTER CUSTER DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PETROLEUM PHILLIPS POWDER RIVER PRAIRIE ROSEBUD TREASURE VALLEY WIBAUX WYC005-011-019-033-045-052340- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMPBELL CROOK JOHNSON SHERIDAN WESTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 1569 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487... FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1569 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Montana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487... Valid 052014Z - 052215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds is increasing across southeast Montana downstream of an organized MCS. DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, a cluster of thunderstorms has grown upscale into an organized MCS with a history of producing severe winds (a 55 knot gust was recently noted at KBIL/Billings, MT). Ahead of the MCS, temperatures continue to warm into the upper 70s and low 80s within a diffuse baroclinic zone extending from southeast MT to the southeast into the Black Hills region. Winds within this baroclinic zone are slowly veering to the southeast, resulting in a modest increase in low-level moisture transport immediately downstream of the approaching squall line. Consequently, buoyancy values have begun to increase across southeast MT with recent RAP/mesoanalysis estimates showing MLCAPE values of around 1000 J/kg. The recent development of shallow cumulus within this region supports this idea of increasing moisture content/buoyancy ahead of the squall line. As such, the expectation is that this line may see further intensification in the coming hours, and will continue to pose a severe wind threat downstream with localized gusts upwards of 60-80 mph possible. With time, a rightward turn to the southeast is possible as the line approaches the eastern MT border and storm propagation becomes increasingly influenced by the diffuse baroclinic zone. ..Moore.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... LAT...LON 45310832 45610830 45850840 46080848 46240862 46320857 46760664 46840578 46830488 46720449 46610433 46220418 45820417 45450425 45220440 45110468 45040516 45120591 45250680 45280743 45250786 45180816 45240831 45310832 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... As next week arrives, a subtropical ridge is expected to be in place over the Southwest and Southern Plains, while quasi-zonal flow impacts much of the northern CONUS. A mid to upper-level cyclone off the northern CA coast is expected to open and move onshore early Day 5/Wednesday morning, and then fill as it traverses the northern Rockies and phases with a long-wave trough over northwestern Canada. The ridge over the Southwest is expected to remain in place through the extended period, with modest westerlies crossing the Rockies and northern Great Plains. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Some increase in mid-level flow is still anticipated to accompany the aforementioned cyclone from northern CA into the Great Basin. Hot and dry conditions under the ridge will precede the approach of this feature, likely resulting in even more receptive fuels across the region by Day 4/Tuesday. Although there's some disagreement within the extended model guidance and ensembles with regards to wind speed, confidence remains high enough to continue with low critical probabilities across southeastern and eastern NV considering a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. In addition to hot, dry, and windy conditions across the Great Basin, a small area of isolated dry thunderstorms appears possible near and east of the southern Cascades of OR Day 4/Tuesday. Brief mid to upper-level ascent associated with the opening closed low should impact this region. However, confidence is not high enough to introduce another area of low probabilities for lightning at this time. ..Barnes.. 07/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 20:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT