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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 17 19:53:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S. today. ...20z Update... The 10 percent general thunderstorm area as been trimmed across GA and portions of north FL with the 20z update based on current location of the surface cold front. A few lightning flashes will remain possible across parts of north Florida into coastal North Carolina as the front shifts eastward through early evening. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023/ ...Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough, extending from the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Mid-South, will continue eastward and reach the western Atlantic late tonight and early Saturday. Although subsidence inversions/weak lapse rates were commonly noted in warm sector 12z observed soundings, a low potential for a few thunderstorms will persist today across eastern North Carolina and north Florida/southern Georgia near and ahead of a cold front. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z The Elevated area for fire weather conditions tomorrow (Saturday) has been expanded northeastward into portions of NW OK and central KS. While some guidance continues to depict minimum relative humidities around 20%, recent RAP/HRRR runs suggests that minima around 10-15% may materialize in the Elevated area. Despite these models' overmixing tendencies, this scenario appears plausible given the ejection of a subtle mid-level speed max and associated 20-30 mph surface winds. The expanded area encompasses the region where this flow will overspread ERCs around the 70th percentile (south of the current snowpack). Critical fire weather conditions are possible -- perhaps along the northern portion of the Elevated area -- but confidence in this scenario is low given model spread in minimum relative humidity forecasts, uncertainty regarding the impact of the melting snowpack on fuel dryness, and the possibility for broken mid-/upper-level clouds through the morning. ..Flournoy/Moore.. 02/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A cut-off low pressure system aloft will move slowly eastward toward the Baja Peninsula on Saturday. A shortwave trough is expected to move into parts of West Texas. This feature will promote some deepening of a lee trough in the southern High Plains. With a surface high in the Southeast maintaining intensity, southwesterly winds should increase from the southern High Plains into parts of the central Plains. Recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have kept fuel moisture above critical thresholds in most of these areas. Marginally drier fuels can be expected in parts of the Texas Panhandle. Winds of 15-25 mph are possible. RH, along with fuels, will be on the marginal side. Reductions to around 20% are possible by the afternoon. Low-end elevated fire weather concerns may develop where lower RH can overlap gusty winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast over the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Quiescent weather conditions are expected on Saturday. Low-amplitude midlevel shortwave perturbations will migrate west to east across central portions of the U.S. However, strong surface high pressure centered over the southern states and Gulf Coast vicinity will result in a dry airmass unfavorable for thunderstorm development. ..Leitman.. 02/17/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S. today. ...Discussion... A positive-tilt upper trough, extending from the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the Mid-South, will continue eastward and reach the western Atlantic late tonight and early Saturday. Although subsidence inversions/weak lapse rates were commonly noted in warm sector 12z observed soundings, a low potential for a few thunderstorms will persist today across eastern North Carolina and north Florida/southern Georgia near and ahead of a cold front. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 02/17/2023 Read more

MD 0167 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 38...40... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeastern Mississippi...into western Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 38...40... Valid 162020Z - 162115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 38, 40 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues and may intensify over the next 1-2 hours across portions of southern MS into western AL. DISCUSSION...As of 2015 UTC, hi-res radar imagery showed a loose cluster of supercells becoming better organized across Jasper, Jefferson Davis, Marion and Walthal counties, MS. Area VADs have shown consistently strong low-level wind profiles with 0-1km bulk shear around 25-30 kt. As these supercells have matured, low-level mesocyclones have trended stronger, suggesting tornado potential is increasing. This is further corroborated by a recent report of a tornado in Smith County, MS. A corridor of enhanced tornado potential may evolve over the next hour or two as supercells continue to track northeastward and reach maturity within the strongly sheared airmass. ..Lyons.. 02/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31159064 32068946 32558868 32718809 32328780 31238834 31128862 31078927 31049033 31159064 Read more

MD 0166 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 39... FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA
Mesoscale Discussion 0166 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Areas affected...the Tennessee Valley area Concerning...Tornado Watch 39... Valid 162002Z - 162200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 39 continues. SUMMARY...Severe potential -- including local tornado risk -- is evident across WW 39. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that storms have increased in intensity across the area, coincident with gradual/modest destabilization -- indicated by RAP-based objective analysis and confirmed by 18Z BNA RAOB revealing roughly 300 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. While instability remains modest, very strong shear is indicated, with low-level south-southwesterly flow veering rapidly and increasing to 55 kt at roughly 1.5km per the BNA RAOB, resulting in intense low-level shear. Within the past hour, storms seem to have responded to the increasingly favorable overall environment, with rotating storms now indicated over eastern Humphreys County Tennessee (which will move into Dickson County shortly), and across McNairy County Tennessee and adjacent Tippah and Alcorn Counties in Mississippi. Expect severe weather potential -- including accompanying tornado risk -- to continue over the next couple of hours. ..Goss.. 02/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33848978 35838829 36658675 37098596 36898526 36338500 34378669 33698854 33848978 Read more

WW 0040 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E 7R4 TO 60 NNW PIB TO 30 SSW GWO. ..SMITH..02/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 32 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-063-091-093-095-101-103-105-117-090440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC007-015-031-035-043-051-061-065-067-073-077-079-083-089-091- 097-099-101-109-113-121-123-127-129-147-163-090440- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CARROLL COVINGTON FORREST GRENADA HOLMES JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES LAMAR LAWRENCE LEAKE LEFLORE MADISON MARION MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON PEARL RIVER PIKE RANKIN SCOTT SIMPSON SMITH Read more

WW 40 TORNADO AL MS 161950Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 40 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and southwest Alabama Extreme southeast Mississippi * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells will spread northeastward from Mississippi into Alabama through the remainder of the afternoon/evening, and additional storm development will be possible into central/southwest Alabama. The storm environment will favor a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong, along with damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Birmingham AL to 75 miles south southeast of Meridian MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 38...WW 39... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0039 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 39 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW UOX TO 40 S MKL TO 50 SW CKV TO 10 ENE CKV. ..GOSS..02/16/23 ATTN...WFO...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 39 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-059-077-079-083-089-103-162040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FRANKLIN LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MORGAN KYC003-009-053-057-141-169-171-213-227-162040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN CLINTON CUMBERLAND LOGAN METCALFE MONROE SIMPSON WARREN MSC003-009-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-139-141-145-161- 162040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 39 TORNADO AL KY MS TN 161800Z - 170100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 39 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama South central Kentucky Northern Mississippi Western and middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from NOON until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe storms will spread eastward across northern Mississippi/western and middle Tennessee into northern Alabama and south central Kentucky through the afternoon. The storm environment will support a threat of both supercells and bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Nashville TN to 30 miles south of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 38... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley. Isolated strong tornadoes are most likely over Mississippi, Alabama and middle Tennessee. Changes at 20Z include accounting for the cold front position, and reducing severe coverage across far northern areas such as western NY where temperatures will remain cool/stable boundary layer. In addition, severe wind probabilities were deceased to account for a mostly supercell storm mode. Otherwise, supercells remain possible with a threat of tornadoes across the MS/AL/TN portion of the warm sector where dewpoints continues to rise and effective SRH exceeds 200 m2/s2. 18Z soundings from the area indicate plentiful moisture but some disorganization in the wind profile between 850 and 700 mb (veer/back with height). However, scattered storms may continue to grow in coverage, with mesoscale factors resulting in locally favorable corridors later today. Large hail and damaging gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms. For more information see mesoscale discussion 165. ..Jewell.. 02/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... A 1010 mb elongated surface low, currently positioned over the central MS Valley, should progress across the OH Valley through the day as a longwave upper-level trough continues to overspread the eastern CONUS. A strong low-level jet will overspread the TN/OH Valleys, roughly coinciding with a warm, moist and overall buoyant airmass across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent in proximity to the low-level jet will supporting scattered to potentially widespread strong thunderstorms, several of which may be severe, particularly south of ongoing thunderstorms across the TN Valley. ...OH Valley... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern periphery of a gradually destabilizing warm sector, at the terminus of a 50 kt 850 mb jet. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection and increasing upper-support with the approaching mid-level trough will maintain the widespread nature of rain and thunderstorms through the afternoon, limiting diurnal heating and associated destabilization. As such, northern Category 1-2 (Slight-Enhanced) severe probabilities have been trimmed. Nonetheless, adequate low-level moisture, strong deep-layer ascent, and strong vertical shear profiles suggest that a conditional (low-end) damaging gust/tornado threat still exists as far north as the OH Valley, where Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities have been maintained. ...Middle TN into MS, AL, and far western GA... Relatively robust thunderstorm development has occurred well ahead of an approaching cold front in association with a confluence band along the LA/MS border area. Given ample diurnal heating, temperatures have warmed well into the 70s F, with upper 60s F dewpoint beginning to overspread central MS. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this relatively pristine warm sector, 1000 J/kg MLCAPE should become common across the southeast, with patchy areas of 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE possible. 50+ kts of westerly 500 mb flow currently overlaps a 30-40 kt low-level jet, with ample speed increases/veering with height supporting 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, which will support supercell development through the afternoon given the aforementioned thermodynamic profile. Modest low-level elongation and curvature of hodographs (evident in mesoanalysis and regional VADs) suggest that storms that organize in the near-term could become tornadic supercells. However, the low-level jet should gradually shift northward from the warm-sector today, which is expected to temper hodograph length/curvature, serving as the primary reason for withholding a moderate risk upgrade this outlook. Nonetheless, an appreciable risk for tornadoes (a couple of which may be strong) necessitates the maintenance of Category 3/Enhanced probabilities, and a narrow corridor of locally higher tornado potential may briefly occur somewhere across eastern MS into central AL this afternoon. Thereafter, storms should gradually weaken as they cross into GA as buoyancy decreases and low-level winds continue to veer. Read more

WW 0038 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W HEZ TO 30 NNE HEZ TO 65 SSE GLH TO 15 SSW GWO TO 15 NNE GWO TO 20 NNE GWO. ..LYONS..02/16/23 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 38 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC029-162040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CONCORDIA MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-043-049-051- 061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079-085-087-089-091-097-099-101- 103-105-113-121-123-127-129-147-149-155-157-159-163-162040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE CLARKE CLAY COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN GRENADA HINDS HOLMES JASPER JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN LOWNDES MADISON Read more

WW 38 TORNADO LA MS 161555Z - 162300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 38 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Extreme northeast Louisiana Central and southern Mississippi * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 955 AM until 500 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells are expected to spread northeastward into central Mississippi through the afternoon, with the threat for a strong tornado or two, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and isolated large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles south southwest of Mc Comb MS to 35 miles east northeast of Greenwood MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 37... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No updates have been made to the outlook. Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected across the CONUS on Friday. ..Flournoy/Bentley.. 02/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns across the CONUS will be mitigated by lighter winds, recent precipitation, and cooler temperatures. Fuel moisture is largely above seasonal normals, expect within portions of western and south-central Texas, where less rainfall has allowed drying of fuels. Within this region, lighter winds under building high pressure will help keep the fire weather risk low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a large positive-tilt upper trough will move eastward across the eastern CONUS, with an upper ridge over the Four Corners states. Meanwhile, an upper low will drift south off the CA Coast. At the surface, low pressure will begin the day over NY, with a cold front extending south across the Piedmont and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This front will push rapidly eastward through the early afternoon, with dewpoints in the 50s F over the Mid Atlantic rising to the mid 60s F over northern FL. Low-level lapse rates will remain poor ahead of the front over most of the eastern seaboard, the exception being FL. Little if any surface-based instability is forecast to develop, and rapidly veering winds aloft will result in drying. Shear will be very strong near the front, and gusty winds may occur with the expected band of frontal precipitation and wind shift. But the lack of instability or heating will preclude any severe chances prior to the front moving offshore. Just a few lightning flashes will be possible from the FL Panhandle into eastern NC during the day, and perhaps briefly with weak elevated instability from NY into southern New England. ..Jewell.. 02/16/2023 Read more

WW 0037 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW GLH TO 60 ENE PBF TO 25 SW DYR TO 35 N HOP. ..GOSS..02/16/23 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC107-161740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PHILLIPS KYC035-047-177-219-221-161740- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN MUHLENBERG TODD TRIGG MSC009-027-033-093-107-119-137-143-161740- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN TATE TUNICA Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TN INTO MS AND AL... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley. Strong tornadoes are most likely over Mississippi, Alabama and middle Tennessee. ...Synopsis... A 1010 mb elongated surface low, currently positioned over the central MS Valley, should progress across the OH Valley through the day as a longwave upper-level trough continues to overspread the eastern CONUS. A strong low-level jet will overspread the TN/OH Valleys, roughly coinciding with a warm, moist and overall buoyant airmass across the Southeast. Deep-layer ascent in proximity to the low-level jet will supporting scattered to potentially widespread strong thunderstorms, several of which may be severe, particularly south of ongoing thunderstorms across the TN Valley. ...OH Valley... Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern periphery of a gradually destabilizing warm sector, at the terminus of a 50 kt 850 mb jet. Continued low-level warm-air and moisture advection and increasing upper-support with the approaching mid-level trough will maintain the widespread nature of rain and thunderstorms through the afternoon, limiting diurnal heating and associated destabilization. As such, northern Category 1-2 (Slight-Enhanced) severe probabilities have been trimmed. Nonetheless, adequate low-level moisture, strong deep-layer ascent, and strong vertical shear profiles suggest that a conditional (low-end) damaging gust/tornado threat still exists as far north as the OH Valley, where Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities have been maintained. ...Middle TN into MS, AL, and far western GA... Relatively robust thunderstorm development has occurred well ahead of an approaching cold front in association with a confluence band along the LA/MS border area. Given ample diurnal heating, temperatures have warmed well into the 70s F, with upper 60s F dewpoint beginning to overspread central MS. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this relatively pristine warm sector, 1000 J/kg MLCAPE should become common across the southeast, with patchy areas of 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE possible. 50+ kts of westerly 500 mb flow currently overlaps a 30-40 kt low-level jet, with ample speed increases/veering with height supporting 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, which will support supercell development through the afternoon given the aforementioned thermodynamic profile. Modest low-level elongation and curvature of hodographs (evident in mesoanalysis and regional VADs) suggest that storms that organize in the near-term could become tornadic supercells. However, the low-level jet should gradually shift northward from the warm-sector today, which is expected to temper hodograph length/curvature, serving as the primary reason for withholding a moderate risk upgrade this outlook. Nonetheless, an appreciable risk for tornadoes (a couple of which may be strong) necessitates the maintenance of Category 3/Enhanced probabilities, and a narrow corridor of locally higher tornado potential may briefly occur somewhere across eastern MS into central AL this afternoon. Thereafter, storms should gradually weaken as they cross into GA as buoyancy decreases and low-level winds continue to veer. ..Squitieri/Lyons.. 02/16/2023 Read more

Kansas’ hard red wheat has struggled amid dry conditions this winter. As of mid-February, the crop was dormant. Some wheat in western Kansas has not yet germinated for lack of moisture. AgUpdate (Tekamah, Neb.), Feb 15, 2023

A cattle rancher in Molina in Colorado’s Mesa County stated that he can usually grow all of the hay he needs with some left over to sell some years. Hay production was down in 2021 as it was a very dry year. High feed and hay costs forced him to whittle down his herd by 20%. Hay that sold for $100 per ton four years ago was currently selling for close to $300 per ton, putting it out of reach for many livestock producers. Aspen Public Radio (Colo.), Feb 15, 2023