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The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation sent out a letter to water agencies, saying that 2023 was not a critically dry year at present, meaning that agencies with senior water rights could have their water allotments increased compared to 2022. The bureau's determination that 2023 is not a "critical water year," is based on a forecast that at least 4 million acre-feet of water will flow into Lake Shasta from Oct. 1, 2022 to Sept. 30, 2023. The letter from the Bureau does note, "For the first half of February, precipitation has been well below average which may result in reduced full natural inflows to Shasta Lake on which this declaration is based. Therefore, please take all necessary preparatory actions should conditions change such that the 2023 Year is declared to be a Critical Year." Redding Record Searchlight (Calif.), Feb 20, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... Amplification of the upper flow field is expected across the U.S. Tuesday. This will occur as a low initially off the Baja coast is kicked eastward across northern Mexico toward the southern Plains, by an evolving trough now over the Gulf of Alaska that is expected to amplify and dig rapidly southward along the western NOAM coast. As this progression proceeds, and a large area of cyclonic flow evolves across the western half of the country, downstream ridging will amplify across the eastern states through latter stages of the period. Limited instability across the country will preclude any appreciable severe potential. Southerly flow evolving from the southern Plains and eventually into the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys will advect higher theta-e air northward atop a stable boundary layer, resulting in widespread precipitation and embedded lightning across this area. Farther west, widespread showers are expected as troughing evolves, with some lightning possible in a few areas including portions of the West Coast, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest. ..Goss.. 02/20/2023 Read more

Oklahoma wheat growth and development was delayed mainly due to drought, although cold temperatures also factor into it. Forage amounts were also down this year, so producers did not get to graze this fall. Much of Oklahoma’s wheat, especially that intended for forage, was seeded late and was dusted in, due to extreme drought. Oklahoma State University (Stillwater, Okla.), Feb. 20, 2023

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Tennessee Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... A low-amplitude upper flow regime will persist over the CONUS including split flow over the West. Low-level moistening will occur through tonight to the south of a front across the Ozarks and lower/middle Ohio River Valley. A modest increase in forcing for ascent and weak elevated buoyancy should yield some elevated thunderstorms after sunset, especially late this evening into the overnight from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 02/20/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cut-off low aloft will continue to make very slow progress eastward toward the Baja Peninsula today. Moderate zonal flow across the southern Rockies will continue. A cold front from the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma will stall. With some pressure gradient enhancement near the boundary, westerly winds across parts of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains could reach 15-25 mph. Fuels have been able to dry as conditions have been modestly dry and breezy recently. However, RH below critical thresholds remains questionable given high/mid-level clouds. Values near the boundary will likely fall to around 20% with some locally lower values. Farther south, RH will be higher. Locally elevated fire weather is possible in the Texas Panhandle into perhaps western Oklahoma. ..Wendt.. 02/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 19 20:46:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 19 20:46:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... No thunderstorms expected. ..Goss.. 02/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023/ ...Discussion... Conditions will remain unfavorable for thunderstorms. A few showers may develop across south Florida and/or near the Atlantic coast later today, but deeper convection capable of lightning is unlikely. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Latest guidance continues to show slight displacement of the driest conditions (across southeast CO and southwest KS), and the strongest winds (across west TX and portions of the TX Panhandle and western OK). Localized elevated conditions remain possible over parts of the TX Panhandle, but confidence in the spatial extent of the threat, as well as fuel status across the region, remains limited. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Moore.. 02/19/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023/ ...Synopsis... For Monday, moderately strong mid-level winds will continue across the southern Rockies as the cut-off low over Baja becomes more of an open wave moving east. The sagging cold front in the southern Plains will stall within the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma. Another lee low will eventually develop during the afternoon in southeast Colorado. The overall setup will be similar to what occurs on Sunday, though slightly shifted to the south. Surface winds of 15 to perhaps 25 mph in some locations will be possible in parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains. However, RH will once again be a major question. High and mid-level clouds are expected especially with southward extent. Afternoon RH of 20-25% is expected to be relatively common. There again may exist a small corridor in the central/northern Panhandle vicinity that will be on the edge of the greater cloud cover. RH near 15% is possible within that zone. As with Sunday, locally elevated fire weather concerns are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Monday. ...Discussion... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail across the entire U.S. Monday, as a deep polar vortex remains over northern portions of Hudson Bay through the period. Meanwhile, a separate/closed low -- progged to lie just off the southern California/northern Baja coast early -- is expected to drift eastward/southeastward through the period. As this low moves eastward, modest cooling aloft may combine with daytime heating to allow minimal CAPE development over portions of Arizona. Given this, associated ascent may be sufficient to support development of showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two during the afternoon Elsewhere, a disturbance within the broad cyclonic flow field aloft is progged to cross the Upper Midwest and later the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. QG ascent associated with the southern fringe of this feature may prove sufficient to allow isolated/elevated convective development across portions of the Middle/Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and vicinity, where some lightning potential remains evident. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected. ..Goss.. 02/19/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2023 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Conditions will remain unfavorable for thunderstorms. A few showers may develop across south Florida and/or near the Atlantic coast later today, but deeper convection capable of lightning is unlikely. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 02/19/2023 Read more

Flows from Iron Gate Dam into the Klamath River were reduced by about 11%, according to the Bureau of Reclamation, as years of drought affect water supplies in the region. Water flows will be managed through April 1, while seeking technical input received through weekly Tribal Nation and stakeholder meetings. KATU-TV ABC 2 Portland (Ore.), Feb 15, 2023

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 18 20:52:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 18 20:52:02 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through early Sunday. ...20z Update... No changes needed. ..Guyer.. 02/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023/ ...Discussion... Relatively dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. Some convection may occur in vicinity of the Florida Straits near a stalling front, but that convection should tend to remain shallow with limited lightning flash potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Drier and more deeply mixed model solutions continue to hint at the potential for elevated wind/RH conditions across portions of southeast CO into adjacent areas of KS, OK, TX, and NM. Although the snow pack across southeast CO continues to erode, parcel trajectories emanating from this region may see muted diurnal RH reductions. This idea is supported by a low probability for elevated conditions in recent ensemble guidance across much of the central High Plains. Localized elevated conditions remain possible on the periphery of the snow pack and further south across eastern NM, the TX Panhandle and into western OK where low-level trajectories will likely emanate out of central NM (though extensive cloud cover remains a limiting factor for afternoon RH minimums). ..Moore.. 02/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0135 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... Moderate zonal flow aloft will develop across parts of the central and southern Rockies on Sunday. Off the southern California coast, a cut-off low will edge closer to the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will sag southward into the southern Plains through the day. For most of the day, the pressure gradient will be modest. A subtle shortwave trough moving into the central Rockies later in the period will help to deepen a surface low in the High Plains. Models show large variability in terms of afternoon RH reductions from West Texas into western Oklahoma/Kansas. However, it is probable that at least a narrow band of RH around 20% will develop as westerly downslope winds increase in the vicinity of the boundary. Fuels will likely be somewhat drier in many locations given the dry and windy conditions on Saturday. Winds, however, are not expected to be overly strong and may only reach 15-20 mph. Farther south, in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, similar winds are expected, but higher RH will occur as well due to greater cloud cover. At this time, elevated fire weather concerns appear as though they will be localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal mid/upper-level flow will spread across the southern tier of the U.S. as a midlevel upper trough develops eastward from the northern Rockies toward the Midwest. Surface high pressure over the Southeast will maintain a mostly dry boundary-layer. By the end of the period, weak surface troughing over the High Plains will result in some modest moistening on southerly low-level return flow across coastal and eastern TX. However, little instability, and weak forcing for ascent, will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Leitman.. 02/18/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1009 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2023 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast through early Sunday. ...Discussion... Relatively dry/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms across the CONUS. Some convection may occur in vicinity of the Florida Straits near a stalling front, but that convection should tend to remain shallow with limited lightning flash potential. ..Guyer/Weinman.. 02/18/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 17 19:53:02 UTC 2023.