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An uptick in brushfire-related calls has kept Hillsborough County firefighters busy as people disregarded the year-round ban on burning yard debris amid an unseasonably dry spell with severe drought in the county. WTVT-TV FOX 13 Tampa Bay (Fla.), March 30, 2023

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 30 21:29:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0385 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0385 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma to western Arkansas and far southwest Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302002Z - 302200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms are expected to slowly increase in coverage and intensity through the remainder of the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma into adjacent portions of western Arkansas and southwest Missouri. While a few large hailstones are possible, this threat should remain too limited for watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar mosaics have shown a gradual increase in convective cells over northern TX into southern OK over the past hour. Lightning associated with this activity has steadily trended upward within the past 30 minutes as cloud top temperatures cool in IR imagery. This suggests that more robust convective initiation is likely underway and/or is imminent as lift continues within a zone of strong warm advection between 850-700 mb. 18 UTC soundings from OUN and FWD show around 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE with effective bulk shear values around 30 knots. This environment is supportive of organized cells capable of severe hail, though recent reflectivity trends hint that thunderstorm clustering/storm interactions may modulate storm longevity and intensity to a degree - likely due to deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the zone of ascent. The expectation is for an increase in coverage of this activity as the zone of mid-level ascent shifts to the northeast into western AR and southwest MO this evening with a few strong to severe cells. Given the modest thermodynamic environment and limited potential for long-lived discrete convection, watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/30/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33589482 33519696 33599747 33789786 34149815 34629825 35109815 35409787 36989538 37199491 37229441 37149403 36809346 36399308 35649303 34979307 34679315 34229340 33979371 33829417 33589482 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over parts of the central and southern Great Plains. No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A robust upper wave is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery slowly shifting to the southeast across central/southern CA. Ahead of this wave, a broad swath of 50+ knot 500 mb flow is slowly overspreading the central/southern Rockies and the western Plains. A southerly low-level flow regime is noted across the Plains with a plume of 50+ F dewpoints advecting poleward through the southern Plains. This moisture will continue to move north through the period as a surface low deepens across parts of western KS/NE amid continued height falls and the approach of an upper-level jet streak late this afternoon into tonight. Broad isentropic ascent over the southern Plains and more focused ascent in the vicinity of the synoptic warm front and deepening surface low over the central Plains will support isolated to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Regional radar mosaics over the past few hours show a steady increase in stratiform clouds and precipitation across parts of southwest TX. This is indicative of a broad warm advection regime that is expected to spread northeast into northern TX, eastern OK, and adjacent areas of AR/MO later this afternoon/evening. While 12 UTC soundings from OUN and FWD show marginal mid-level lapse rates, differential warming in the 850-700 mb layer through the day will support increasing buoyancy adequate for deep convection. Effective shear will generally increase through the period and may support a few organized elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail across eastern OK into AR/MO. Further west across northwest TX and southwest OK, a diffuse lee trough/dryline is expected to sharpen through the day as the deepening cyclone over the central Plains aids in advecting high-quality moisture northward from south TX and southwest downslope flow increases out of eastern NM. Initially capped soundings across northwest TX may see adequate daytime heating through broken clouds to allow for mixed-layer parcels to reach their LFCs within a weak dryline circulation. While this threat is highly conditional, the thermodynamic and kinematic environment would be supportive of supercells with all associated hazards. ...Central Plains... Surface pressure falls on the order of 2-3 mb/3 hours are noted across NE/IA this morning in the vicinity of a weak surface low and diffuse warm frontal zone across south-central NE to central IA. Steep mid-level lapse rates noted in 12 UTC soundings across the High Plains will advect westward through the day. The combination of increasing moisture, steepening lapse rates, and increasing ascent along the warm front should be favorable for isolated to scattered elevated convection across central NE into southeast SD late this afternoon/evening. Elongating hodographs will feature sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection with an associated hail threat. Additional convection is expected to overspread much of the Mid-West during the overnight hours within a strengthening warm advection regime. Strong cells in this regime may produce small hail, but less favorable buoyancy/deep-layer shear with eastward extent and the potential for numerous storm interactions casts uncertainty into the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over parts of the central and southern Great Plains. No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A robust upper wave is evident in mid-morning water-vapor imagery slowly shifting to the southeast across central/southern CA. Ahead of this wave, a broad swath of 50+ knot 500 mb flow is slowly overspreading the central/southern Rockies and the western Plains. A southerly low-level flow regime is noted across the Plains with a plume of 50+ F dewpoints advecting poleward through the southern Plains. This moisture will continue to move north through the period as a surface low deepens across parts of western KS/NE amid continued height falls and the approach of an upper-level jet streak late this afternoon into tonight. Broad isentropic ascent over the southern Plains and more focused ascent in the vicinity of the synoptic warm front and deepening surface low over the central Plains will support isolated to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. ...Southern Plains... Regional radar mosaics over the past few hours show a steady increase in stratiform clouds and precipitation across parts of southwest TX. This is indicative of a broad warm advection regime that is expected to spread northeast into northern TX, eastern OK, and adjacent areas of AR/MO later this afternoon/evening. While 12 UTC soundings from OUN and FWD show marginal mid-level lapse rates, differential warming in the 850-700 mb layer through the day will support increasing buoyancy adequate for deep convection. Effective shear will generally increase through the period and may support a few organized elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail across eastern OK into AR/MO. Further west across northwest TX and southwest OK, a diffuse lee trough/dryline is expected to sharpen through the day as the deepening cyclone over the central Plains aids in advecting high-quality moisture northward from south TX and southwest downslope flow increases out of eastern NM. Initially capped soundings across northwest TX may see adequate daytime heating through broken clouds to allow for mixed-layer parcels to reach their LFCs within a weak dryline circulation. While this threat is highly conditional, the thermodynamic and kinematic environment would be supportive of supercells with all associated hazards. ...Central Plains... Surface pressure falls on the order of 2-3 mb/3 hours are noted across NE/IA this morning in the vicinity of a weak surface low and diffuse warm frontal zone across south-central NE to central IA. Steep mid-level lapse rates noted in 12 UTC soundings across the High Plains will advect westward through the day. The combination of increasing moisture, steepening lapse rates, and increasing ascent along the warm front should be favorable for isolated to scattered elevated convection across central NE into southeast SD late this afternoon/evening. Elongating hodographs will feature sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection with an associated hail threat. Additional convection is expected to overspread much of the Mid-West during the overnight hours within a strengthening warm advection regime. Strong cells in this regime may produce small hail, but less favorable buoyancy/deep-layer shear with eastward extent and the potential for numerous storm interactions casts uncertainty into the severe threat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are still expected tomorrow (Friday) afternoon and evening over portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Expansions to the Critical area were made in southwest KS, central NM, and central and West TX. Critical meteorological conditions are likely across northeastern OK and southeastern KS, but confidence in supportive fuels -- due to possible convective precipitation later today and tonight amidst already sub-critical levels -- precludes an extension of the Critical area in this update. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough, initially over the central/southern High Plains, will track east-northeastward into the Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity through the period, while a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow overspreads the central/southern High Plains. At the same time, a related cold front will move eastward from the central Plains into the eastern CONUS. Within the post-frontal environment, an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Behind the eastward-advancing cold front, mostly clear skies and strong downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across the region. Related deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with a tight surface pressure gradient, will support an expansive area of 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will favor widespread high-end critical conditions across much of the central/southern High Plains during the afternoon/early evening hours. And, the potential for extremely critical meteorological conditions is evident, especially from portions of southeastern CO into the TX/OK Panhandles. With that said, the current state of fuels does not appear to support an Extremely Critical area at this time. Farther east into north-central/northeastern OK and southeastern KS, critical meteorological conditions are possible; however, accumulating rainfall over already marginal fuels on Day 1/Thursday casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. Therefore, Elevated highlights remain in place for these areas, though Critical highlights could be needed if rainfall is less than anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are still expected tomorrow (Friday) afternoon and evening over portions of the Central/Southern Plains. Expansions to the Critical area were made in southwest KS, central NM, and central and West TX. Critical meteorological conditions are likely across northeastern OK and southeastern KS, but confidence in supportive fuels -- due to possible convective precipitation later today and tonight amidst already sub-critical levels -- precludes an extension of the Critical area in this update. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough, initially over the central/southern High Plains, will track east-northeastward into the Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity through the period, while a belt of strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow overspreads the central/southern High Plains. At the same time, a related cold front will move eastward from the central Plains into the eastern CONUS. Within the post-frontal environment, an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of the central and southern High Plains during the afternoon/early evening. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Behind the eastward-advancing cold front, mostly clear skies and strong downslope flow will yield 10-15 percent RH across the region. Related deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, combined with a tight surface pressure gradient, will support an expansive area of 25-35 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph). These conditions will favor widespread high-end critical conditions across much of the central/southern High Plains during the afternoon/early evening hours. And, the potential for extremely critical meteorological conditions is evident, especially from portions of southeastern CO into the TX/OK Panhandles. With that said, the current state of fuels does not appear to support an Extremely Critical area at this time. Farther east into north-central/northeastern OK and southeastern KS, critical meteorological conditions are possible; however, accumulating rainfall over already marginal fuels on Day 1/Thursday casts uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. Therefore, Elevated highlights remain in place for these areas, though Critical highlights could be needed if rainfall is less than anticipated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley. In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI... Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and sporadic hail. Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early Saturday morning. ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys... A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy with eastward extent. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected. ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South... ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley. In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI... Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and sporadic hail. Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early Saturday morning. ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys... A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy with eastward extent. ..Dean.. 03/30/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track regarding widespread critical fire-weather conditions developing today over portions of the central/southern High Plains. Only minor adjustments were made to the northeastern and southern peripheries of the Elevated/Critical areas. Mid-/upper-level clouds currently overspread portions of southeast NM. This cloud cover is expected to gradually clear and shift eastward, boosting diurnal heating and boundary-layer mixing to support critical conditions. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper-level trough accompanied by strong deep-layer southwesterly winds will overspread the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a surface cyclone will rapidly deepen near northeastern CO, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens across the central/southern High Plains during the afternoon. By the evening hours, the surface cyclone will continue east-northeastward, while an attendant Pacific cold front overspreads the High Plains. This large-scale pattern will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across much of the central/southern High Plains during the afternoon/evening hours. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying amid efficient diurnal heating will yield deep boundary-layer mixing and an expansive area of single-digit to lower teens RH. At the same time, southwesterly surface winds will rapidly strengthen in response to the tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone. 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds are expected over most of the central/southern High Plains, and deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 50 mph. These conditions will support the potential for rapid spread of any wildfires that develop. Over parts of eastern NM into southeastern CO, a corridor of 30+ mph sustained surface winds and single-digit RH could lead to extremely critical meteorological conditions; however, current indications are that fuels do not support Extremely Critical highlights. During the evening/overnight hours, strong westerly surface winds will overspread the risk area behind the Pacific cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The 2022 summer drought in Arkansas limited wild blackberry and wild cherry production, particularly in the northern part of the state, where drought was more intense. Arkansas' black bears normally eat the fruit, but had to find other food. The following winter, the bears' low reproductive rate at 45 percent of normal affected the same area, suggesting that the reduced food supply affected the subsequent reproductive rate. KARK (Little Rock, Ark.), March 29, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 29 21:07:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0383 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0383 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0405 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania and New York Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 292105Z - 300100Z SUMMARY...Snow squalls will be possible through the evening hours across northern Pennsylvania and central/western New York as a cold front pushes across the region. DISCUSSION...A cold front tracking eastward across the lower Great Lakes region is beginning to move into portions of OH, PA, and western NY. While temperatures ahead of this front remain the upper 40s and low 50s, surface observations behind the front show temperatures quickly falling into the low 30s with moderate to heavy snow, visibility reductions between 1/2 to 1/4 mile, and strong wind gusts between 35-45 mph. Strong pressure rises behind the front are also noted west of the Buffalo, NY region, suggesting that the strongest frontal surge will occur across the western NY area for the next several hours. Snow squall conditions are expected to persist immediately behind this front as it continues east across northern PA and much of NY through the evening hours, and may extend as far east as the New England region during the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 03/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 43247904 43907787 44957596 45147523 45137434 44907383 44397364 43517393 42657463 42017577 41527727 41347881 41377973 41768014 42318011 42627993 43247904 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation has thus far limited buoyancy over much of CA and the West Coast. Low topped storms may still develop over the central Valley later this afternoon, but confidence in severe potential remains low. Thunder has been trimmed farther north across OR and far northern CA where lingering cloud cover and weakening large-scale lift will limit thunder potential. In the lee of the Great Lakes, a band of low topped convective snow showers along the cold front will move into the northeastern US from southern Canada this evening. Snow squall conditions may develop along with a few lightning flashes. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track with minimal changes. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 03/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023/ ...South Florida... Scattered thunderstorms should develop along both sea breezes during the late afternoon and may converge over the Everglades by early evening. Relatively modest low-level moisture and weaknesses in mid-level lapse rates per 12Z observed Miami/Key West soundings should hold MLCAPE below 1000 J/kg. A couple of the strongest updrafts may produce gusty winds and small hail across the southern portion of the Florida Peninsula. ...Lee of the Lower Great Lakes... A shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes will take on a negative tilt as it progresses across the Saint Lawrence Valley through Thursday morning. This will result in cyclogenesis over Quebec with a sharpening cold front trailing across southern Ontario, and pushing east in New York/Pennsylvania during the late afternoon and evening. Buoyancy will be minimal (MLCAPE <=100 J/kg) ahead of the front owing to surface dew points in the 20s. But the strengthening large-scale ascent should support a high-based, low-topped band of convection along the front. Increasing low-level flow behind the front will be mixed to the surface and yield gusty winds. Graupel and even a snow squall will be possible as temperatures tumble. ...Central/Southern California... The closed upper low off the coastal of northern California this morning will spread south-southeastward toward the central California coast through tonight. A few stronger low-topped thunderstorms could occur near the north-central Coast this afternoon and/or across the central Valley late this afternoon, pending cloud breaks/modest destabilization. For southern California, it still appears that severe-weather potential will remain low given the limited low-level moisture influx and weak destabilization inland. Read more

The Guadalupe and Comal rivers were flowing more slowly, due to drought, but still offered great fishing, camping and tubing. WOAI NBC 4 San Antonio (Texas), March 28, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track regarding high-end critical fire-weather conditions developing over portions of the central/southern High Plains tomorrow (Friday) afternoon and evening. The Critical area has been expanded to the southwest to account for anticipated strong surface winds amidst relative humidities around 10 percent or lower. The potential for extremely critical meteorological surface conditions to materialize continues along a corridor from northeastern NM arcing south-southwestward through the El Paso Metro and vicinity. However, forecast fuel conditions in the region do not support an Extremely Critical area on Friday afternoon. Please see the previous discussion for more information. ..Flournoy/Squitieri.. 03/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper-level trough accompanied by strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. During the afternoon hours, a related surface cyclone will rapidly deepen near northeastern CO, while a dryline extends southward across the central/southern High Plains. Into the evening/overnight hours, the surface cyclone will continue eastward across the central Plains, while an attendant Pacific cold front overspreads the central/southern High Plains. This pattern will yield an expansive area of high-end critical conditions over portions of the southern/central High Plains. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Behind the dryline over the southern/central High Plains, deep boundary-layer mixing aided by strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will yield an expansive area of single-digit to lower teens RH. While forecast soundings indicate the potential for lingering high clouds over parts of west TX, the strong downslope flow should easily compensate for this. At the same time, a rapidly tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface low will support widespread 20-30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. And, the deep boundary-layer mixing into strong flow aloft will favor gusts upwards of 50 mph. These conditions will support high-end critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon/evening hours. Over parts of eastern NM, sustained surface winds in excess of 30 mph could lead to extremely critical meteorological conditions; however, the current state of fuels does not support such highlights at this time. During the evening/overnight hours, a westerly wind shift can be expected behind the Pacific cold front, with winds remaining strong/gusty in the wake of the front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Brevard County has issued a burn ban due to dry ground and the lack of rain. The neighboring counties of Orange, Osceola and Seminole also have restrictions on outdoor burning. WMFE-FM 90.7 (Orlando, Fla.), March 29, 2023

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and central Plains Thursday evening and overnight. ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow is expected across much of the CONUS as an active flow regime continues. An anomalously deep upper-level cyclone over the West Coast is forecast to shift eastward across the Southwest as it transitions toward an open wave through Thursday. A lee cyclone over eastern CO should deepen as lift from the trough and an 80-90 kt jet streak overspreads the southern/central Rockies and High Plains. To the east, shortwave ridging over the Southeast will support broad southerly return flow across the center of the country. A warm front will rapidly lift poleward extending into KS/NE by the end of the period. Weak destabilization and strong shear near and south of the front may support isolated severe thunderstorms ahead of the deepening surface cyclone across the central and southern Great Plains Thursday evening into the overnight hours. ...Southern Plains... As the upper trough begins to eject eastward out of the Southwest over the Rockies and High Plains, large-scale ascent from the advancing polar jet streak/trough is forecast to generally lag behind the returning warm sector farther east. Despite rapid northward advection of upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints, perhaps as far north as KS/OK by 00z, considerable inhibition is expected during the daylight hours across much of the southern Plains. This should generally suppress surface based thunderstorms until after sunset, though a conditional risk for a supercell will remain possible primarily across southwestern OK. A few elevated cells may develop with a small southern stream perturbation passing over portions of eastern OK with a risk for hail and or wind. Gradually increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the advancing Pacific front/dryline may allow for isolated thunderstorms to develop near the Red River in south-central/southeastern OK and track east northeastward overnight. While likely somewhat stable in the low levels, increasing vertical shear supportive of organized storms, including supercells, may promote a risk for isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Central Plains and Midwest... Farther north, large-scale forcing will arrive earlier in the diurnal cycle across portions of eastern NE/SD into the upper Midwest, but the low-levels will remain mostly stable at the tip of the moist plume rapidly advecting north. As a result, limited buoyancy (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE) is expected despite steeper mid-level lapse rates beneath the cold core of the trough. Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop late in the afternoon from eastern NE into southern SD capable of some severe hail given favorable shear profiles for supercells. As the main trough continues eastward, low-level mass response from the deepening surface low should allow for more widespread thunderstorms to develop after dark. Elevated thunderstorms should develop in an arc near the core of the low-level jet from western IA, toward southwestern MN. Severe hail may develop north of the warm front through the overnight and into early Friday Morning. Additional elevated thunderstorms are possible farther east over portions of northern and central IL, but confidence in severe potential here is lower owing to weaker forcing and more limited lapse rates aloft. ..Lyons/Jewell.. 03/29/2023 Read more