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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible today over parts of the Southeast and Texas. A more concentrated corridor with a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should remain focused across parts of far southeast Alabama, southern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle through the afternoon. ...Southeast... Water-vapor satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough centered over portions of the Southeast late this morning. This trough will move eastward off the NC/SC Coast by this evening. An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms over southeast AL and southwest GA will develop east-southeastward along/near a surface warm front which will attempt to advance northeast from the Gulf Coast. This will result in the cluster becoming gradually separated from the low-amplitude wave. Still, some tornado threat should continue into the afternoon with this activity until the low-level flow slowly weakens and veers. Damaging winds will also be possible farther east into southern GA and north FL as at least modest destabilization and filtered daytime heating occur ahead of the ongoing cluster. In the wake of this activity, a couple of thunderstorms may redevelop along residual convective outflow or the northward-developing warm front during the late afternoon to early evening across eastern MS and southern/central AL. Minimal large-scale ascent results in low confidence in this scenario occurring. But, if convection becomes sustained, a strongly sheared and destabilizing warm sector may support severe hail and/or damaging winds. ...North/Central Texas... Moderate to strong buoyancy and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable supercell environment along/just ahead of a dryline late this afternoon and early evening over parts of north/central TX. Near-neutral mid-level heights with minor downstream ridging is expected across the dryline. This area will also be well removed from a deepening upper trough across the western CONUS. Low-level convergence along the dryline should remain weak, but could be relatively maximized in the early evening across central TX as the dryline starts to retreat. Some 12Z convection-allowing models suggest a thunderstorm or two may briefly develop. However, uncertainty remains high regarding a particular location. Any sustained supercell would pose a conditional risk of all severe hazards, but large hail is likely if a thunderstorm can form and be sustained. Given the uncertainty in whether any convection will initiate given the negligible large-scale ascent, will maintain low severe probabilities with this update. But, observational and short-term model trends will be closely monitored for a possible upgrade to Slight Risk at 20Z, if warranted. ...Illinois/Indiana... Gradual destabilization this afternoon will occur south of a quasi-stationary front that bisects MO to central IL and northern IN. However, a building mid-level ridge along with the expansion of a stout EML suggest the chance for surface-based development today is low. Still, modest lift to the cool side of the front may support a few stronger elevated updrafts this evening through tonight. A weak combination of buoyancy/shear and warm-advection-related ascent suggests that small hail should be the most likely hazard. ..Gleason/Lyons.. 04/03/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Apr 2 21:20:04 UTC 2023.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across central to northeast Texas this afternoon through about midnight CDT. Very large hail and several tornadoes are possible, a couple of which may be strong. ...20Z Update... Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage and intensity across parts of western north TX this afternoon as a shortwave trough ejects eastward over the southern Plains. Current expectations are for supercells to develop from both the ongoing activity, and with additional development this afternoon along an eastward-mixing dryline. Large to very large hail will be a concern with any supercell that can be sustained, as steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear foster robust updrafts and hail growth. A strong tornado also remains a possibility, particularly this evening across parts of north-central TX. As convection eventually grows upscale this evening, the damaging wind threat should likewise gradually increase. For more details on the near-term severe threat across central/north TX and southern OK, see Mesoscale Discussion 437 and recently issued Tornado Watch 110. Otherwise, the Marginal Risk has been expanded slightly eastward across parts of southern/central MS for late tonight into early Monday morning, where an isolated hail/wind threat may persist. ..Gleason.. 04/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023/ ...TX/OK/LA... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined and compact midlevel shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across NM/Southwest TX. This trough and its associated 60-70kt midlevel jet will track across TX this afternoon and evening, providing large scale ascent for a round of intense thunderstorms. Low-level moisture is returning northward quickly this morning, with dewpoints in the 60s expected as far north as the Red River. A combination of relatively strong surface heating, very steep midlevel lapse rates, and rapid cooling of midlevel temperatures will yield a corridor of afternoon MLCAPE values ~2000 J/kg along and east of the dryline. Current indications are that thunderstorms will form quickly by mid-afternoon along and east of the dryline over western North Texas and southwest OK as the upper trough arrives. These storms will likely intensify rapidly into supercells with a risk of very large hail and a tornado or two. This activity will increase in coverage as it spreads eastward along the northern edge of rapid moisture return toward the DFW metro area. Very large hail will remain a concern, but most model guidance also shows strengthening low-level wind fields and shear, promoting an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A strong tornado or two will be possible. By mid-evening, activity will likely congeal into an MCS tracking eastward into northeast TX and northwest LA. Damaging wind risk will increase, while the risk of hail and a tornado or two persists. There is uncertainty how far east this MCS will maintain a severe risk. Will not adjust the outlook areas at this time, but will re-evaluate the need for SLGT farther east in later updates. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Both the Elevated and Critical areas were expanded somewhat to account for the latest forecast guidance, but overall the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Monday strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest and Southern High Plains as a lee cyclone begins to develop with increasing surface pressure gradients across the Southern Plains. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the Southwest and Southern High Plains as this pattern brings windy and dry conditions. ...Southwest and Southern High Plains... Deep boundary layer mixing is expected Monday afternoon allowing relative humidity reductions to 5-15 percent across a broad region of the High Plains and into the Southwest. Southwesterly surface winds will be sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels across western Texas and Oklahoma into eastern Colorado and New Mexico have seen several periods of windy/dry conditions with ERCs forecast to be within 80-90th percentile for dryness supporting introduction of a Critical delineation. Fuels across the Southwest are beginning to become more supportive of fire spread but remain around or below the 60th percentile, precluding the need to include a larger area within the D2 Critical. Elevated to critical relative humidity and winds will remain possible across much of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0110 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0110 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 110 TORNADO OK TX 021945Z - 030400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 110 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma North and Central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to intensify along a dryline over western North Texas, while other intense storms form eastward across the watch. Very large hail will be possible with this activity, along with an increasing risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Ardmore OK to 25 miles south of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible across parts of the central Gulf Coast states, mainly through early Monday evening. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across portions of the southern Plains, and mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest vicinity, late Monday afternoon through Monday night. ...Synopsis... A pronounced western CONUS upper trough is forecast to amplify further on Monday as it digs over the Great Basin and Southwest. Strong surface lee cyclogenesis will occur in earnest over the central High Plains as large-scale ascent overspreads this region through the period. Low-level moisture emanating from the open Gulf of Mexico will stream northward Monday across parts of the southern/central Plains, lower/mid MS Valley, Southeast, and Midwest. A surface dryline will mix eastward through Monday afternoon over portions of central/eastern OK/TX. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South into the Southeast... A low-amplitude shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the Southeast and towards the East Coast Monday morning. Ascent associated with this feature and related low-level warm advection will likely aid thunderstorms that should be ongoing Monday morning over parts of MS into AL. At least weak destabilization should occur through Monday afternoon over parts of southern AL/GA and the FL Panhandle as daytime heating occurs and surface dewpoints increase into the mid to upper 60s along/south of a front. A mix of multicells and perhaps occasional supercell structures may persist and spread slowly east-southeastward across this area, as deep-layer shear should remain strong enough to support continued updraft organization. Isolated damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats with this activity, but sufficient low-level shear should be present along/near the front for some updraft rotation and perhaps a tornado or two. ...Southern Plains... Well ahead of the western CONUS upper trough, mid-level heights are forecast to remain neutral on Monday, or even rise slightly through the day. The surface dryline is expected to mix eastward across parts of central/eastern OK/TX by late Monday afternoon. Nebulous/weak large-scale ascent and a persistent low-level inversion associated with an EML/steepening mid-level lapse rates should inhibit convective development for much of the day. Latest (12Z) guidance shows generally little signal for thunderstorms to initiate along the dryline Monday afternoon/early evening. But, there still appears to be a conditional threat for a supercell to develop by peak afternoon heating. If a thunderstorm can form, it would exist in rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment to support both large hail and damaging winds. Have adjusted the Marginal Risk based on the consensus of the forecast position of the dryline, but confidence in convection occurring remains too low to include higher severe hail/wind probabilities. ...Central Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... Modest low-level moisture should return slowly northward across this region as a warm front gradually sharpens by Monday evening. Most guidance suggests that a cap will limit robust thunderstorm development through much of the day. But, increasing ascent attendant to a strengthening west-southwesterly low-level jet may aid convective initiation along/north of the front Monday evening and overnight. If thunderstorms can form, they would likely remain elevated and pose a threat for mainly isolated hail as they move eastward from parts of the mid MS Valley to the Midwest. ..Gleason.. 04/02/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... No changes were made. Morning guidance is not as bullish with wind speeds across southeast New Mexico and portions of West Texas. However, surface observations show a few locations with 20 mph winds as of 16Z. Therefore, this area will remain in the Critical delineation. ..Bentley.. 04/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will move across the Central and Southern High Plains on Sunday bringing increasing westerly winds aloft. Windy and very dry conditions are expected behind the dry line, where Elevated to Critical fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Eastern New Mexico, Southeastern Colorado, Oklahoma Panhandle, West Texas... Behind the dry line, strong westerly downslope flow and a deeply mixed boundary layer will allow relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent. Ensemble guidance highlights the highest confidence of overlap in the strongest winds and dry conditions across eastern New Mexico northward into Colorado and eastward into the Oklahoma Panhandle and western Texas. Fuels within this region are notably drying with lack of recent rainfall and several windy/dry periods. Critical fire weather conditions are expected with little change made to the previously forecast region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0108 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0108 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 108 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NJ NY CW 012115Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 515 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Western Massachusetts Northern New Jersey Southern and Eastern New York Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 515 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of storms will continue eastward across the region toward western New England, while additional/semi-isolated storms might also develop across southern New York. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Albany NY to 20 miles southwest of Islip NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...WW 106...WW 107... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0432 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 107... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE AND EASTERN MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0432 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Areas affected...parts of eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...Delaware and eastern Maryland and southern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107... Valid 012037Z - 012230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 107 continues. SUMMARY...Storms may rejuvenate along the front as it moves into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York, with additional develop possible ahead of the front from the Delmarva into New Jersey. Damaging winds are likely, with a risk of isolated tornadoes and large hail by early evening. DISCUSSION...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move rapidly east with the cold front, with a relative decrease in severe wind gusts compared to earlier in the day, due in part to limited moisture. East of the ongoing central PA/NY activity, temperatures continue to warm, with a recent trend of a few stations reporting rising dewpoints across southern NJ and far southeast PA. Satellite imagery shows increasing CU over parts of MD, though this activity is currently shallow. Over the next 1-2 hours, additional storms are expected to form from the Delmarva across far eastern PA and into NJ, as lift increases. Some storms may become supercells, and the tornado risk will also increase through early evening coincident with strengthening low-level shear and cooling aloft. Any increase in dewpoints will also increase the probability of a tornado. Activity may become linear as the cold front overtakes any activity ahead of it, with both damaging winds possible across southern NY and New England. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 04/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39247451 38807493 38497501 38207510 38057544 38047582 38447622 38787636 39067639 39647623 40677550 41357499 41457433 41357371 41147340 40807352 40587375 40187396 39717402 39477423 39247451 Read more

WW 0106 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CEW TO 30 ENE DHN TO 10 ESE ABY TO 40 ENE ABY TO 50 WSW VDI TO 15 SSW VDI TO 20 SE VDI TO 30 ENE VDI TO 30 N SAV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 ..LYONS..04/01/23 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 106 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC069-012140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON FLC059-063-012140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES JACKSON GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-029-049-051-065-069-071-075- 087-099-101-103-109-131-155-161-173-179-183-185-191-201-205-229- 253-267-275-277-299-305-321-012140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 106 SEVERE TSTM AL FL GA 011745Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Far Northern Florida Southern Georgia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Bands of storms, potentially including a few semi-discrete supercells, will intensify and continue east-southeastward across the region this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Dothan AL to 35 miles north northeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Northeast this evening. Isolated damaging winds will be the main threat across south Georgia this evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to southern New England this evening... The band of convection responsible for numerous wind damage reports and multiple measured severe gusts has temporarily weakened across central PA/NY. However, an increase in low-level moisture beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates across the Mid-Atlantic should result in an uptick in storm intensity this evening into eastern PA/NJ/southeast NY. A mix of line segments and embedded supercells are expected along the pre-frontal wind shift and outflow from ongoing convection, with the potential for damaging winds of 60-70 mph and a couple of tornadoes. ...Northeast Gulf coast to southeast GA this evening... A broken band of strong-severe storms is ongoing along the wind shift, near the southern fringe of the influence of the deep OH Valley midlevel trough. As forcing for ascent weakens gradually and with the onset of diurnal cooling, storm intensity should wane after 00z. In the interim, isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible with storm clusters/supercells, mainly across southeast and south central GA. ..Thompson.. 04/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023/ ...Northeast States... Parts of the region have been upgraded to a categorical Enhanced Risk. This is related to an initial concern for increasingly organized/fast-moving linear low-topped convection moving from eastern Ohio into western portions of Pennsylvania/New York early this afternoon. Although the immediately preceding air mass is not overly moist, ample insolation/heating via cloud-free skies in conjunction with a strong wind field and regionally observed steep lapse rates will support scenario for potentially widespread damaging winds aside from some hail. Farther east, richer boundary-layer moisture will persist closer to the coastal plain across the Delaware/Lower Hudson Valleys. While pervasive cloud cover persists at midday (roughly within 75-100 miles of the Atlantic Coast at 16z), steady clearing is expected this afternoon based on radar/satellite trends. Environment will support both a conditional supercell environment as well as persistence/potential rejuvenation of the upstream fast-moving convective line. If a few supercells materialize, tornadoes, hail, and damaging winds would all be possible, and damaging winds are otherwise probable with the inbound convective line roughly centered in the 21z-01z time frame for eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southern New York/NYC Metro vicinity. ...Southeast States... Deep-layer flow will gradually trend more westerly with time as the strong upper low advances east across the Ohio Valley. Pre-frontal convection currently extends from central Georgia to southern Alabama at midday, and this will continue to advance east-southeast through the day. While the primary large-scale forcing will spread well north of this region, deep-layer flow will be strong and organized clusters/short-line segments are expected. Damaging winds should be the primary concern, though some risk for a tornado or two exists as well. Read more

MD 0431 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106... FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME NORTHERN FLORIDA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0431 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Areas affected...southeastern Alabama...southern Georgia...far southwestern South Carolina and extreme northern Florida. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106... Valid 012004Z - 012130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 106 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for a few damaging gusts and a brief tornado will remain this afternoon with isolated thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...As of 1955 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a slow moving cold front across portions of southwestern SC, southern GA, and far southeastern AL. A few damaging wind reports have been received over the last few hours as storms have gradually moved south and east. The risk for damaging gusts may continue as sufficient buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MCLAPE) for strong updrafts exists across far southern GA into northern FL. Vertical shear also remains sufficient for organized short line segments and marginal supercell structures. However, surface flow has continued to veer and weaken with southward extent this afternoon. Recent HRRR forecasts and observational trends suggest the primary severe risk will remain with the more organized storms over southern GA and eventually northern FL. Given the potential for storms to persist in the unstable and moderately sheared environment, a risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado should continue for a few more hours. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 30808593 31008596 31378494 31768383 31978313 32378255 32528211 32618182 32668159 32618126 32488110 32288102 31928104 31368150 30948159 30668190 30538225 30538266 30608448 30638524 30658562 30808593 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Expanded the Elevated and Critical delineation northward across the Colorado Front Range where fuels have started to dry and winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected Sunday. In addition, expanded the Elevated area to the west across eastern Arizona and western New Mexico where fuels have started to dry and winds of 25 mph with single digit relative humidity is expected. Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Apr 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse will move across New Mexico and Texas on Sunday bringing increasing westerly flow aloft. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico and Western Texas... Winds will likely begin to mix early Sunday morning across portions of western Texas and eastern New Mexico as the shortwave approaches. Very dry conditions will already be in place with temperatures warming into the afternoon. Relative humidity reductions to around 10 percent (locally as low as 5-7 percent) will be possible with sustained winds around 15-20 mph (locally up to 25 mph). This in combination with ERCs approaching the 70-80th percentile after several days of drying support a Critical delineation across eastern New Mexico and western Texas from the Texas Panhandle south to Trans Pecos and eastward to Caprock. ...Central New Mexico and the Oklahoma Panhandle southward to the Rolling Plains of Texas... A broader region of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across areas near and south of the Albuquerque area as well as further east into the Oklahoma Panhandle and Rolling Plains of Texas. Winds within this region are less certain, though areas of sustained winds up to 15-20 mph will be possible with locally Critical fire weather concerns. Potential expansion of the Critical area may be needed in further updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0105 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW HLG TO 15 SSE HLG TO 20 WNW LBE TO 35 S DUJ TO 10 SSE DUJ TO 20 WSW BFD TO 10 WNW JHW TO 55 NNE ERI. ..JEWELL..04/01/23 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 105 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC003-009-013-029-037-051-055-063-069-073-117-121-011940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEGANY CATTARAUGUS CHAUTAUQUA ERIE GENESEE LIVINGSTON MONROE NIAGARA ONTARIO ORLEANS WAYNE WYOMING PAC021-023-033-047-051-059-083-105-111-129-011940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMBRIA CAMERON CLEARFIELD ELK FAYETTE GREENE MCKEAN POTTER SOMERSET WESTMORELAND LEZ040-041-061-011940- Read more

WW 0107 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0107 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 107 SEVERE TSTM NY PA 011825Z - 020000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving band of storms will pose mainly a damaging wind risk this afternoon. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of State College PA to 20 miles northeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 105...WW 106... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 26050. ...Guyer Read more