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MD 0682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR NORTHEAST CO...NE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NE...NORTHWEST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Areas affected...far northeast CO...NE Panhandle and southwest NE...northwest KS Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 052054Z - 052300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop over northeast CO/NE Panhandle and spread east while intensifying. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely need to be considered in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows developing thunderstorms near the NE/WY border and other deepening convection is noted over northeast CO near I-76. The northern rim of richer low-level moisture has reached I-70 in central KS with 60 deg F dewpoints at several observation sites. A drier but more deeply mixed boundary layer is located over northwest KS into southwest NE and the NE Panhandle. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s near the NE/CO/KS border with mid 70s far north over the NE Sandhills. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE ranges from 500-1500 J/kg across the central High Plains. An increase in buoyancy is progged over northwest KS (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) on the northern rim of richer moisture as it advects into the area during the evening. Forecast guidance suggests effective shear generally in the 30-45 kt range which will support storm organization. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will favor at least isolated to widely scattered instances of large to very large hail (max hail diameters 2.0 to 2.75 inches) with mature supercells. Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts of 60-75 mph are possible, especially as cold pools consolidate during the evening and some upscale growth occurs coincident with a strengthening of the LLJ. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 41820372 42460339 42770257 42430148 41019954 40149935 39269981 38910111 39260218 41070347 41820372 Read more

WW 187 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 052055Z - 060300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 187 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Fri May 5 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southern Oklahoma Central and North Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify, initially across central/western North Texas through late afternoon and early evening. This includes the potential for supercells capable of large hail. Storms could eventually cluster by early evening as they persist eastward toward the I-35 corridor. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Sherman TX to 40 miles west southwest of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25020. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0681 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0681 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Areas affected...central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051942Z - 052145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to form over the next few hours across central Texas, with a threat of severe hail and a few severe gusts. DISCUSSION...A CU field continues to expand over parts of the Edwards Plateau, with additional towering CU extending east/northeast toward Denton. Strong heating over the elevated terrain has led to an uncapped air mass, with modest destabilization currently as dewpoints have mixed. Coincidentally, all of this convection happens to be colocated with the 850 mb theta-e ridge. With time, and despite only weak convergence, a few storms will likely emerge out of the coalescing CU field, with a threat of locally damaging hail or severe gusts. Mid to high level winds are not particularly strong, suggesting multicell storm mode with sporadic strong cores and updrafts propagating in various directions, with downdrafts aided by the well-mixed boundary layer. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 31230013 31860022 32749991 32979957 33179740 32979720 32569686 31949687 31299703 30699725 30389760 30489900 30739971 31230013 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely across central Texas and in the central Great Plains, centered on 4 to 10 PM CDT. Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. ...20z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over Louisiana has been trimmed based on location of ongoing convection and trends in short-term forecast guidance. Otherwise, the only other changes have been to trim the 10 percent general thunderstorm line across parts of OK/southeast KS/southwest MO/far northwest AR. Strong capping should preclude thunderstorm development in these areas through the remainder of the period. ..Leitman.. 05/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023/ ...Central/North Texas... A moist/moderately unstable environment is expected near/east of the north/south-oriented dryline this afternoon. Ample insolation/mixing near the dry line should contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon particularly across central Texas near/west of I-35. Despite weak low-level flow, 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support a few slow-moving supercells with mid-level rotation capable of producing very large hail. Although convective inhibition will nocturnally increase, there is some potential that a cluster of storms could persist for a time this evening across central Texas, with damaging winds a possibility. ...Central High Plains... On the east/south periphery of the Great Basin-centered upper trough, a shortwave trough/speed max over the southern Rockies this morning should reach and increasingly influence the central High Plains by late afternoon and evening. Deepening of a lee trough will occur through peak heating, with modest low-level moisture advecting west-northwestward across the region. Initial high-based thunderstorm development is expected across far eastern Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle and northeast Colorado, with storms expected to intensify as the move into somewhat richer low-level moisture and greater buoyancy, including supercells amidst 40+ kt effective shear. Large hail should be the most common hazard, but a locally damaging wind gust and/or low tornado potential will exist as well. The severe threat could persist eastward into central Nebraska/north-central Kansas early in the overnight. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... The remnants of an overnight/early morning convective cluster continue to spread offshore into the northern Gulf of Mexico generally to the south of Mobile. Dual weak mid-level perturbations/MCV will continue to spread eastward away from a northwest/southeast-oriented convectively reinforced warm front and zone of differential heating. Nevertheless, storm redevelopment, such as what may already being occurring across the ArkLaMiss vicinity, is expected at least on a widely scattered sense as outflow modifies and the boundary warms/destabilizes. Isolated instances of severe hail and/ow wind will be possible this afternoon through early evening as storms spread southeastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely across central Texas and in the central Great Plains, centered on 4 to 10 PM CDT. Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. ...20z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over Louisiana has been trimmed based on location of ongoing convection and trends in short-term forecast guidance. Otherwise, the only other changes have been to trim the 10 percent general thunderstorm line across parts of OK/southeast KS/southwest MO/far northwest AR. Strong capping should preclude thunderstorm development in these areas through the remainder of the period. ..Leitman.. 05/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023/ ...Central/North Texas... A moist/moderately unstable environment is expected near/east of the north/south-oriented dryline this afternoon. Ample insolation/mixing near the dry line should contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon particularly across central Texas near/west of I-35. Despite weak low-level flow, 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support a few slow-moving supercells with mid-level rotation capable of producing very large hail. Although convective inhibition will nocturnally increase, there is some potential that a cluster of storms could persist for a time this evening across central Texas, with damaging winds a possibility. ...Central High Plains... On the east/south periphery of the Great Basin-centered upper trough, a shortwave trough/speed max over the southern Rockies this morning should reach and increasingly influence the central High Plains by late afternoon and evening. Deepening of a lee trough will occur through peak heating, with modest low-level moisture advecting west-northwestward across the region. Initial high-based thunderstorm development is expected across far eastern Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle and northeast Colorado, with storms expected to intensify as the move into somewhat richer low-level moisture and greater buoyancy, including supercells amidst 40+ kt effective shear. Large hail should be the most common hazard, but a locally damaging wind gust and/or low tornado potential will exist as well. The severe threat could persist eastward into central Nebraska/north-central Kansas early in the overnight. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... The remnants of an overnight/early morning convective cluster continue to spread offshore into the northern Gulf of Mexico generally to the south of Mobile. Dual weak mid-level perturbations/MCV will continue to spread eastward away from a northwest/southeast-oriented convectively reinforced warm front and zone of differential heating. Nevertheless, storm redevelopment, such as what may already being occurring across the ArkLaMiss vicinity, is expected at least on a widely scattered sense as outflow modifies and the boundary warms/destabilizes. Isolated instances of severe hail and/ow wind will be possible this afternoon through early evening as storms spread southeastward. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are most likely across central Texas and in the central Great Plains, centered on 4 to 10 PM CDT. Large hail and locally damaging winds are possible. ...20z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing outlook. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) over Louisiana has been trimmed based on location of ongoing convection and trends in short-term forecast guidance. Otherwise, the only other changes have been to trim the 10 percent general thunderstorm line across parts of OK/southeast KS/southwest MO/far northwest AR. Strong capping should preclude thunderstorm development in these areas through the remainder of the period. ..Leitman.. 05/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023/ ...Central/North Texas... A moist/moderately unstable environment is expected near/east of the north/south-oriented dryline this afternoon. Ample insolation/mixing near the dry line should contribute to isolated thunderstorm development by late afternoon particularly across central Texas near/west of I-35. Despite weak low-level flow, 30-40 kt effective bulk shear will support a few slow-moving supercells with mid-level rotation capable of producing very large hail. Although convective inhibition will nocturnally increase, there is some potential that a cluster of storms could persist for a time this evening across central Texas, with damaging winds a possibility. ...Central High Plains... On the east/south periphery of the Great Basin-centered upper trough, a shortwave trough/speed max over the southern Rockies this morning should reach and increasingly influence the central High Plains by late afternoon and evening. Deepening of a lee trough will occur through peak heating, with modest low-level moisture advecting west-northwestward across the region. Initial high-based thunderstorm development is expected across far eastern Wyoming/Nebraska Panhandle and northeast Colorado, with storms expected to intensify as the move into somewhat richer low-level moisture and greater buoyancy, including supercells amidst 40+ kt effective shear. Large hail should be the most common hazard, but a locally damaging wind gust and/or low tornado potential will exist as well. The severe threat could persist eastward into central Nebraska/north-central Kansas early in the overnight. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... The remnants of an overnight/early morning convective cluster continue to spread offshore into the northern Gulf of Mexico generally to the south of Mobile. Dual weak mid-level perturbations/MCV will continue to spread eastward away from a northwest/southeast-oriented convectively reinforced warm front and zone of differential heating. Nevertheless, storm redevelopment, such as what may already being occurring across the ArkLaMiss vicinity, is expected at least on a widely scattered sense as outflow modifies and the boundary warms/destabilizes. Isolated instances of severe hail and/ow wind will be possible this afternoon through early evening as storms spread southeastward. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, the broad trough over the western US is forecast to weaken as it shifts north and east through the start of the weekend. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will slacken over portions of the Southwest and High Plains. However, enough lingering flow will likely exist behind a lee trough/dryline to support gusty winds through Saturday afternoon. A few hours of elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...New Mexico into portions of far southeastern Colorado... As large-scale ascent weakens with the broadening of the upper trough, the surface lee low over the central Plains is also expected to slowly fill through the day. While weaker than the day before, gusty southwest flow of 15-20 mph and higher gusts are still expected over portions of NM and CO Saturday. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures behind the lee trough should still support RH values below 15%. A few hours of elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given dry fuels. The most likely corridor for sustained critical conditions is over portions of central and eastern NM where the strongest winds and lowest RH overlap through much of the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, the broad trough over the western US is forecast to weaken as it shifts north and east through the start of the weekend. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will slacken over portions of the Southwest and High Plains. However, enough lingering flow will likely exist behind a lee trough/dryline to support gusty winds through Saturday afternoon. A few hours of elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...New Mexico into portions of far southeastern Colorado... As large-scale ascent weakens with the broadening of the upper trough, the surface lee low over the central Plains is also expected to slowly fill through the day. While weaker than the day before, gusty southwest flow of 15-20 mph and higher gusts are still expected over portions of NM and CO Saturday. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures behind the lee trough should still support RH values below 15%. A few hours of elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given dry fuels. The most likely corridor for sustained critical conditions is over portions of central and eastern NM where the strongest winds and lowest RH overlap through much of the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 05/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Fri May 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... In the mid-levels, the broad trough over the western US is forecast to weaken as it shifts north and east through the start of the weekend. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will slacken over portions of the Southwest and High Plains. However, enough lingering flow will likely exist behind a lee trough/dryline to support gusty winds through Saturday afternoon. A few hours of elevated and critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...New Mexico into portions of far southeastern Colorado... As large-scale ascent weakens with the broadening of the upper trough, the surface lee low over the central Plains is also expected to slowly fill through the day. While weaker than the day before, gusty southwest flow of 15-20 mph and higher gusts are still expected over portions of NM and CO Saturday. Dry downslope flow and warm temperatures behind the lee trough should still support RH values below 15%. A few hours of elevated and critical fire-weather conditions appear likely given dry fuels. The most likely corridor for sustained critical conditions is over portions of central and eastern NM where the strongest winds and lowest RH overlap through much of the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday morning and afternoon. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail and damaging gusts are possible from southern Oklahoma into central Texas Saturday afternoon into early evening. A more limited risk for strong gusts and hail is possible across southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana through Saturday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Saturday. This will bring a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow over the region. A more subtle shortwave impulse is forecast to migrates northeast across TX/OK during the afternoon/evening. Another impulse, likely associated with Day 1 convection over TX is forecast to spread east beneath an upper ridge over the Lower MS Valley. These features will focus thunderstorm potential on Saturday from the Upper Midwest through the MS Valley and across OK/TX. ...OK/TX... A surface dryline is forecast to extend south/southwest from southeast KS into central OK and west-central TX. Midlevel capping will likely suppress thunderstorm develop across northern OK into far eastern KS and western MO as this area will remain between the influence of wave ejecting further north toward the Upper Midwest, and the subtle wave migrating across TX. Strong heating along the dryline amid upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) during the afternoon. Increasing midlevel moisture and subtle forcing from the midlevel shortwave impulse and from the dryline circulation should be sufficient to erode capping by peak heating. Isolated to scatter thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain somewhat modest, but vertically veering profiles will result in around 40 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting initial supercells. Elongated hodographs above 2-3 km and lapse rates around 8-9 C/km suggest large to very large hail (greater than 2 inches) will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates may also support strong outflow winds. The eastward extent of the threat will be limited by strengthening inhibition after loss of daytime heating given a lack of stronger ascent and warmer temperatures aloft. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity... Large-scale ascent will be focused across eastern NE/SD into MN/WI by afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough migrates northeast. This influence of this shortwave will be limited with southward extent across the Mid-MS Valley. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity west of the MS River. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will transport rich Gulf moisture northward into southeast IA and much of IL. Some elevated morning convection posing a risk for marginally severe hail is possible in this warm advection regime in the vicinity of east-central MO/west-central IL. This activity could persist along the moisture/instability gradient into western KY during the afternoon. Some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity though uncertainty in this scenario remains high. Additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from southeast IA southward along the MS River appears more conditional given strong capping and nebulous large-scale ascent. If isolated convection develops and can become sustained, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Further north into eastern SD and the Upper Midwest, convection is likely to develop near a surface low over central/eastern SD and eastward along the warm front extending across southern MN into southwest WI. Cooler temperatures and more modest boundary-layer moisture this far north will limit instability. However, steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km will aid in weak destabilization by late afternoon into the evening. Clusters of storms, potentially elevated with storm motion to the cool side of the warm front, may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds. ...Lower MS Valley... Residual outflow from Day 1 convection and at least modest ascent associated with and eastward progressing impulse will provide support for thunderstorms on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F and warming into the 80s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability. Capping above 850 mb will result in a somewhat uncertain/conditional risk, but most forecast guidance suggests at least a few storm will develop during the afternoon. Modest shear and rather weak deep-layer flow will likely limit longevity of intense/well-organized convection. Nevertheless, some risk of strong gusts and marginal hail could accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 05/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday morning and afternoon. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail and damaging gusts are possible from southern Oklahoma into central Texas Saturday afternoon into early evening. A more limited risk for strong gusts and hail is possible across southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana through Saturday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Saturday. This will bring a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow over the region. A more subtle shortwave impulse is forecast to migrates northeast across TX/OK during the afternoon/evening. Another impulse, likely associated with Day 1 convection over TX is forecast to spread east beneath an upper ridge over the Lower MS Valley. These features will focus thunderstorm potential on Saturday from the Upper Midwest through the MS Valley and across OK/TX. ...OK/TX... A surface dryline is forecast to extend south/southwest from southeast KS into central OK and west-central TX. Midlevel capping will likely suppress thunderstorm develop across northern OK into far eastern KS and western MO as this area will remain between the influence of wave ejecting further north toward the Upper Midwest, and the subtle wave migrating across TX. Strong heating along the dryline amid upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) during the afternoon. Increasing midlevel moisture and subtle forcing from the midlevel shortwave impulse and from the dryline circulation should be sufficient to erode capping by peak heating. Isolated to scatter thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain somewhat modest, but vertically veering profiles will result in around 40 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting initial supercells. Elongated hodographs above 2-3 km and lapse rates around 8-9 C/km suggest large to very large hail (greater than 2 inches) will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates may also support strong outflow winds. The eastward extent of the threat will be limited by strengthening inhibition after loss of daytime heating given a lack of stronger ascent and warmer temperatures aloft. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity... Large-scale ascent will be focused across eastern NE/SD into MN/WI by afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough migrates northeast. This influence of this shortwave will be limited with southward extent across the Mid-MS Valley. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity west of the MS River. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will transport rich Gulf moisture northward into southeast IA and much of IL. Some elevated morning convection posing a risk for marginally severe hail is possible in this warm advection regime in the vicinity of east-central MO/west-central IL. This activity could persist along the moisture/instability gradient into western KY during the afternoon. Some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity though uncertainty in this scenario remains high. Additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from southeast IA southward along the MS River appears more conditional given strong capping and nebulous large-scale ascent. If isolated convection develops and can become sustained, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Further north into eastern SD and the Upper Midwest, convection is likely to develop near a surface low over central/eastern SD and eastward along the warm front extending across southern MN into southwest WI. Cooler temperatures and more modest boundary-layer moisture this far north will limit instability. However, steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km will aid in weak destabilization by late afternoon into the evening. Clusters of storms, potentially elevated with storm motion to the cool side of the warm front, may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds. ...Lower MS Valley... Residual outflow from Day 1 convection and at least modest ascent associated with and eastward progressing impulse will provide support for thunderstorms on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F and warming into the 80s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability. Capping above 850 mb will result in a somewhat uncertain/conditional risk, but most forecast guidance suggests at least a few storm will develop during the afternoon. Modest shear and rather weak deep-layer flow will likely limit longevity of intense/well-organized convection. Nevertheless, some risk of strong gusts and marginal hail could accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 05/05/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday morning and afternoon. Additional severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail and damaging gusts are possible from southern Oklahoma into central Texas Saturday afternoon into early evening. A more limited risk for strong gusts and hail is possible across southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana through Saturday afternoon. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will shift northeast across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest on Saturday. This will bring a belt of enhanced southwesterly flow over the region. A more subtle shortwave impulse is forecast to migrates northeast across TX/OK during the afternoon/evening. Another impulse, likely associated with Day 1 convection over TX is forecast to spread east beneath an upper ridge over the Lower MS Valley. These features will focus thunderstorm potential on Saturday from the Upper Midwest through the MS Valley and across OK/TX. ...OK/TX... A surface dryline is forecast to extend south/southwest from southeast KS into central OK and west-central TX. Midlevel capping will likely suppress thunderstorm develop across northern OK into far eastern KS and western MO as this area will remain between the influence of wave ejecting further north toward the Upper Midwest, and the subtle wave migrating across TX. Strong heating along the dryline amid upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints and very steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to strong destabilization (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE) during the afternoon. Increasing midlevel moisture and subtle forcing from the midlevel shortwave impulse and from the dryline circulation should be sufficient to erode capping by peak heating. Isolated to scatter thunderstorms are expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer flow will remain somewhat modest, but vertically veering profiles will result in around 40 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting initial supercells. Elongated hodographs above 2-3 km and lapse rates around 8-9 C/km suggest large to very large hail (greater than 2 inches) will be possible. Steep low-level lapse rates may also support strong outflow winds. The eastward extent of the threat will be limited by strengthening inhibition after loss of daytime heating given a lack of stronger ascent and warmer temperatures aloft. ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity... Large-scale ascent will be focused across eastern NE/SD into MN/WI by afternoon/evening as the shortwave trough migrates northeast. This influence of this shortwave will be limited with southward extent across the Mid-MS Valley. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity west of the MS River. Nevertheless, southerly low-level flow will transport rich Gulf moisture northward into southeast IA and much of IL. Some elevated morning convection posing a risk for marginally severe hail is possible in this warm advection regime in the vicinity of east-central MO/west-central IL. This activity could persist along the moisture/instability gradient into western KY during the afternoon. Some wind/hail risk could accompany this activity though uncertainty in this scenario remains high. Additional thunderstorm development during the afternoon from southeast IA southward along the MS River appears more conditional given strong capping and nebulous large-scale ascent. If isolated convection develops and can become sustained, large hail and damaging gusts will be possible. ...Upper Midwest vicinity... Further north into eastern SD and the Upper Midwest, convection is likely to develop near a surface low over central/eastern SD and eastward along the warm front extending across southern MN into southwest WI. Cooler temperatures and more modest boundary-layer moisture this far north will limit instability. However, steep midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km will aid in weak destabilization by late afternoon into the evening. Clusters of storms, potentially elevated with storm motion to the cool side of the warm front, may pose a risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds. ...Lower MS Valley... Residual outflow from Day 1 convection and at least modest ascent associated with and eastward progressing impulse will provide support for thunderstorms on Saturday. Surface dewpoints in the low 70s F and warming into the 80s beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability. Capping above 850 mb will result in a somewhat uncertain/conditional risk, but most forecast guidance suggests at least a few storm will develop during the afternoon. Modest shear and rather weak deep-layer flow will likely limit longevity of intense/well-organized convection. Nevertheless, some risk of strong gusts and marginal hail could accompany this activity. ..Leitman.. 05/05/2023 Read more

The level of Lake Mead may rise between an additional 5 to 25 feet by the end of the year, with the increase likely close to 18 feet. The higher water level will offer better access to water for wildlife, which will probably increase survival rates for most animals and fish, too. The Willow Beach Fish Hatchery closed in 2022 when the water fell below its intake valve. The water level has risen up to the valve again, which is about 1,050 feet in elevation, but the Nevada Department of Wildlife is replacing the old valve and will reopen the hatchery in 2024. KSNV-TV NBC (Las Vegas, Nev.), May 2, 2023

A Rocking ham County farmer irrigated strawberries and other crops and really appreciated the rain that fell over the weekend and eased the dryness somewhat. WHSV-TV (Harrisonburg, Va.), May 4, 2023

Pasture growth in central Missouri has been slower than usual, due to cool, dry weather. A livestock producer anticipates needing to purchase hay later in the season to cover his forage needs. A livestock producer and farmer in southwest Missouri claimed that spring has been like last year in terms of weather and dry pastures. Grass growth was lagging, and without rain soon, pastures will wither and not grow back. The cool season hay will not grow well once the weather warms. Ponds were extremely low. Cattle were being culled, and more culling may be in the offing if there isn’t significant hay growth. Feeder calves will likely be taken to market in the next 30 days. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), May 4, 2023

WW 0185 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 185 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..05/04/23 ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 185 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-033-057-065-067-085-137-141-042240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER COTTON HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON LOVE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-075-077-097-101-155-197-269-275-337-485-487-042240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CHILDRESS CLAY COOKE COTTLE FOARD HARDEMAN KING KNOX MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 185 TORNADO OK TX 041955Z - 050200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Thu May 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest and south central Oklahoma Northwest into north central Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A couple of supercells are expected to develop this afternoon and move eastward near the Red River through this evening. The storm environment will favor large hail of 2 to 2.5 inches in diameter as the primary threat, though a couple of tornadoes will also be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south of Childress TX to 25 miles south of Ardmore OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this through this evening from southwest Oklahoma into northwest and central Texas. ...Synopsis... Only minor adjustments have been made to the Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area across northwest TX/southwest OK. These changes are based on current position of the dryline and an outflow boundary, and trends in visible satellite/surface observations. Overall forecast thinking remains unchanged from the previous outlook. For short term severe potential across northwest TX and far southwest OK, see MCD 673 and Tornado Watch 185. For short term severe potential further south along the dryline across west-central TX, see MCD 674. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023/ ...TX/OK area this afternoon/evening... Within the subtropical jet, embedded perturbations will eject east-northeastward from northern Mexico to the southern Plains through tonight. The strength and orientation of the midlevel flow supports modest lee cyclogenesis across extreme southeast CO, and resultant southerly low-level flow and moisture advection (mid-upper 60s dewpoints) across TX. A broad swath of mid-high clouds covers much of TX/OK this morning, with embedded/elevated convection ongoing in small clusters from the TX South Plains to southern/central OK. The cloud plume will slow surface heating in central/north TX, while the morning rainfall will tend to reinforce the baroclinic zone near the Red River through this afternoon. The stronger surface heating/mixing will occur with clearing of the mid-high clouds from the west by mid afternoon across west central into northwest TX. Low-level moisture advection will be rather modest (low 60s dewpoints) into the zone of stronger surface heating, with somewhat modest buoyancy expected by May standards in the southern Plains (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg). Supercells will be most probable late this afternoon/evening where the warmer temperatures and steeper low-level lapse rates impinge on the northwest edge of the somewhat richer low-level moisture, near and east of the dryline/warm front intersection. Large hail (some of which be 2 inch diameter or a little larger) will be the main concern, though the stronger storms could produce isolated damaging winds. If a supercell can move along the baroclinic zone near or just south of the Red River this evening, the somewhat enhanced low-level shear and moisture will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Farther south, a few supercells will be possible from the Del Burros northeastward into the Edwards Plateau along the sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Relatively straight hodographs and MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg will favor large hail as the primary severe threat, some of which could be larger than 2 inches in diameter. ...Northern Rockies/Great Basin this afternoon/evening... Pockets of surface heating, and a band of ascent around the northeast periphery of the Great Basin midlevel low, will support scattered thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy and southeasterly deep-layer shear could be sufficient for a isolated storms with strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this through this evening from southwest Oklahoma into northwest and central Texas. ...Synopsis... Only minor adjustments have been made to the Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area across northwest TX/southwest OK. These changes are based on current position of the dryline and an outflow boundary, and trends in visible satellite/surface observations. Overall forecast thinking remains unchanged from the previous outlook. For short term severe potential across northwest TX and far southwest OK, see MCD 673 and Tornado Watch 185. For short term severe potential further south along the dryline across west-central TX, see MCD 674. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023/ ...TX/OK area this afternoon/evening... Within the subtropical jet, embedded perturbations will eject east-northeastward from northern Mexico to the southern Plains through tonight. The strength and orientation of the midlevel flow supports modest lee cyclogenesis across extreme southeast CO, and resultant southerly low-level flow and moisture advection (mid-upper 60s dewpoints) across TX. A broad swath of mid-high clouds covers much of TX/OK this morning, with embedded/elevated convection ongoing in small clusters from the TX South Plains to southern/central OK. The cloud plume will slow surface heating in central/north TX, while the morning rainfall will tend to reinforce the baroclinic zone near the Red River through this afternoon. The stronger surface heating/mixing will occur with clearing of the mid-high clouds from the west by mid afternoon across west central into northwest TX. Low-level moisture advection will be rather modest (low 60s dewpoints) into the zone of stronger surface heating, with somewhat modest buoyancy expected by May standards in the southern Plains (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg). Supercells will be most probable late this afternoon/evening where the warmer temperatures and steeper low-level lapse rates impinge on the northwest edge of the somewhat richer low-level moisture, near and east of the dryline/warm front intersection. Large hail (some of which be 2 inch diameter or a little larger) will be the main concern, though the stronger storms could produce isolated damaging winds. If a supercell can move along the baroclinic zone near or just south of the Red River this evening, the somewhat enhanced low-level shear and moisture will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Farther south, a few supercells will be possible from the Del Burros northeastward into the Edwards Plateau along the sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Relatively straight hodographs and MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg will favor large hail as the primary severe threat, some of which could be larger than 2 inches in diameter. ...Northern Rockies/Great Basin this afternoon/evening... Pockets of surface heating, and a band of ascent around the northeast periphery of the Great Basin midlevel low, will support scattered thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy and southeasterly deep-layer shear could be sufficient for a isolated storms with strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu May 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible this through this evening from southwest Oklahoma into northwest and central Texas. ...Synopsis... Only minor adjustments have been made to the Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) area across northwest TX/southwest OK. These changes are based on current position of the dryline and an outflow boundary, and trends in visible satellite/surface observations. Overall forecast thinking remains unchanged from the previous outlook. For short term severe potential across northwest TX and far southwest OK, see MCD 673 and Tornado Watch 185. For short term severe potential further south along the dryline across west-central TX, see MCD 674. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Thu May 04 2023/ ...TX/OK area this afternoon/evening... Within the subtropical jet, embedded perturbations will eject east-northeastward from northern Mexico to the southern Plains through tonight. The strength and orientation of the midlevel flow supports modest lee cyclogenesis across extreme southeast CO, and resultant southerly low-level flow and moisture advection (mid-upper 60s dewpoints) across TX. A broad swath of mid-high clouds covers much of TX/OK this morning, with embedded/elevated convection ongoing in small clusters from the TX South Plains to southern/central OK. The cloud plume will slow surface heating in central/north TX, while the morning rainfall will tend to reinforce the baroclinic zone near the Red River through this afternoon. The stronger surface heating/mixing will occur with clearing of the mid-high clouds from the west by mid afternoon across west central into northwest TX. Low-level moisture advection will be rather modest (low 60s dewpoints) into the zone of stronger surface heating, with somewhat modest buoyancy expected by May standards in the southern Plains (MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg). Supercells will be most probable late this afternoon/evening where the warmer temperatures and steeper low-level lapse rates impinge on the northwest edge of the somewhat richer low-level moisture, near and east of the dryline/warm front intersection. Large hail (some of which be 2 inch diameter or a little larger) will be the main concern, though the stronger storms could produce isolated damaging winds. If a supercell can move along the baroclinic zone near or just south of the Red River this evening, the somewhat enhanced low-level shear and moisture will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. Farther south, a few supercells will be possible from the Del Burros northeastward into the Edwards Plateau along the sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Relatively straight hodographs and MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg will favor large hail as the primary severe threat, some of which could be larger than 2 inches in diameter. ...Northern Rockies/Great Basin this afternoon/evening... Pockets of surface heating, and a band of ascent around the northeast periphery of the Great Basin midlevel low, will support scattered thunderstorms across the northern Rockies this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy and southeasterly deep-layer shear could be sufficient for a isolated storms with strong/damaging outflow gusts and marginally severe hail. Read more