Aggregator

No watches are valid as of Tue May 2 21:32:01 UTC 2023.

MD 0668 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO WEST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0668 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern NM into west TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 022030Z - 022300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may gradually increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon, with both severe winds and hail possible. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly increasing along and just east of the Sacramento/Guadalupe Mountains in southern NM and the Davis Mountains in west TX. This is occurring as a weak shortwave trough moves over this region, and modest low-level upslope flow continues. The current activity is rather high based, given the presence of generally 30s surface dewpoints and a very well mixed boundary layer where surface heating has occurred. As this convection spreads east-northeastward over the next couple of hours, these thunderstorms will gradually intercept modestly greater low-level moisture characterized by mid 40s to mid 50s surface dewpoints present across far eastern NM into west TX. Some intensification of this convection may occur as it intercepts the greater instability across west TX. Still, deep-layer shear remains rather modest, around 20-30 kt, due to the low-amplitude nature of the shortwave trough and weak low-level mass response. Multicell clusters will probably be the dominant mode with any convection that can persist with eastward extent. Given the steep low/mid-level lapse rates and inverted-v type soundings, severe wind gusts should be the main threat, but some hail may also occur with the more robust updrafts. Overall convective organization and intensity may remain somewhat marginal/isolated late this afternoon and evening, and the need for a watch is unclear. Regardless, observational trends will be closely monitored. ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 31300293 31580328 32020350 33770349 34260324 34350275 34330219 34090186 33710174 33110166 32060169 31480212 31280249 31300293 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across the Southwest on Wednesday. A sub-tropical shortwave trough is forecast to migrate out of northern Mexico into the Southwest through the day. This will lead to broad, but modest, pressure falls across the Four Corners and southern High Plains. In response, southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph from the international border into the Four Corners and eastern Great Basin. Downslope warming and drying will support areas of 15-20% RH coincident with breezy winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across much of the region, but the fire concern will be focused primarily across southeast AZ into southwest and central NM where ERCs have reached the 80-90th percentile amid a prolonged (30-day) period of negligible rainfall. ...Georgia into South Carolina... Another day of dry and breezy weather is expected as a Great Lakes low continues to meander northeast. Gradient winds will likely be weaker compared to today (Tuesday), but most solutions hint at winds near 15 mph during peak heating when RH values will likely be around 25-30%. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but the overall fire threat will be conditional on fuel status by Wednesday afternoon. Widespread drying/curing of fine fuels is expected today, and may be sufficient for highlights in subsequent updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z The current Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook is on track with no changes needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0216 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across the Southwest on Wednesday. A sub-tropical shortwave trough is forecast to migrate out of northern Mexico into the Southwest through the day. This will lead to broad, but modest, pressure falls across the Four Corners and southern High Plains. In response, southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph from the international border into the Four Corners and eastern Great Basin. Downslope warming and drying will support areas of 15-20% RH coincident with breezy winds. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across much of the region, but the fire concern will be focused primarily across southeast AZ into southwest and central NM where ERCs have reached the 80-90th percentile amid a prolonged (30-day) period of negligible rainfall. ...Georgia into South Carolina... Another day of dry and breezy weather is expected as a Great Lakes low continues to meander northeast. Gradient winds will likely be weaker compared to today (Tuesday), but most solutions hint at winds near 15 mph during peak heating when RH values will likely be around 25-30%. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but the overall fire threat will be conditional on fuel status by Wednesday afternoon. Widespread drying/curing of fine fuels is expected today, and may be sufficient for highlights in subsequent updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail will be possible through evening across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Aside from minor changes to the 10 percent general thunder line, no changes have been made to the ongoing outlook with the 20z update. Isolated thunderstorms are developing near the higher terrain of southwest TX into southern NM as of 1930z. This activity is developing within a drier, weakly unstable airmass. However, as convection shifts east toward modestly better moisture/instability, increasing potential for severe wind/hail is expected through evening. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/ ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... The persistent omega block persists over the CONUS, with a deep low over the Great Lakes/Northeast, a ridge over the Rockies, and another midlevel low over northern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture extends from the northern CA low southeastward toward west TX, within the deformation zone between the two deep lows. Subtle speed maxima are moving northeastward from northern Mexico toward the southern High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases from the southeast (in response to weak lee troughing). In the immediate wake of morning clouds, strong surface heating and modest increases in low-level moisture will contribute to destabilization this afternoon, when MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg. The 12z MAF/EPZ soundings suggest that the warmest elevated mixed layer plume is already over TX, with cooler upstream temperatures. Thus, afternoon surface temperatures into the mid 80s should be sufficient to mix through the base of the elevated mixed layer, reducing convective inhibition and supporting scattered thunderstorm development across eastern NM/west TX along the lee trough. The weak-moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rate profiles, in combination with rather modest deep-layer shear and relatively straight hodographs, will support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some splitting supercells. The primary severe threat will be a few severe outflow gusts with the high-based storms, though isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with transient supercell structures and/or favorable storm mergers/interactions. The severe-weather threat will peak late afternoon and slowly diminish by late evening, though slightly elevated storms could persist overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail will be possible through evening across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. ...Southern High Plains... Aside from minor changes to the 10 percent general thunder line, no changes have been made to the ongoing outlook with the 20z update. Isolated thunderstorms are developing near the higher terrain of southwest TX into southern NM as of 1930z. This activity is developing within a drier, weakly unstable airmass. However, as convection shifts east toward modestly better moisture/instability, increasing potential for severe wind/hail is expected through evening. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/ ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... The persistent omega block persists over the CONUS, with a deep low over the Great Lakes/Northeast, a ridge over the Rockies, and another midlevel low over northern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture extends from the northern CA low southeastward toward west TX, within the deformation zone between the two deep lows. Subtle speed maxima are moving northeastward from northern Mexico toward the southern High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases from the southeast (in response to weak lee troughing). In the immediate wake of morning clouds, strong surface heating and modest increases in low-level moisture will contribute to destabilization this afternoon, when MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg. The 12z MAF/EPZ soundings suggest that the warmest elevated mixed layer plume is already over TX, with cooler upstream temperatures. Thus, afternoon surface temperatures into the mid 80s should be sufficient to mix through the base of the elevated mixed layer, reducing convective inhibition and supporting scattered thunderstorm development across eastern NM/west TX along the lee trough. The weak-moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rate profiles, in combination with rather modest deep-layer shear and relatively straight hodographs, will support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some splitting supercells. The primary severe threat will be a few severe outflow gusts with the high-based storms, though isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with transient supercell structures and/or favorable storm mergers/interactions. The severe-weather threat will peak late afternoon and slowly diminish by late evening, though slightly elevated storms could persist overnight. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and large hail are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the central and southern High Plains. ...Southern/Central High Plains... An upper ridge will be centered over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Wednesday. Various weak impulses related to remnants of Day 1/Tuesday convection will be shifting east across KS/OK early in the period. Thereafter, forcing for ascent will remain nebulous until late in the period when a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject into the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity after 03z. This later impulse will be ill-timed for diurnal convection. Modest boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to low 60s F) is forecast from southwest TX northward through the OK/TX Panhandles and into far eastern CO/western KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg, with much of the instability focused above 700 mb atop a weak EML. Deep-layer flow also will remain fairly weak beneath the upper ridge, though favorable veering with height will be sufficient for effective shear values near 30 kt. Strong heating and low-level convergence should be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development by afternoon. Shear will be marginally favorable for transient supercells and clusters. Elongated hodographs above 2-3 km coupled with favorable thermodynamic profiles suggest large hail will be possible with any sustained semi-discrete convection. Steep low-level lapse rates also may support isolated strong downburst winds. Modestly enlarged low-level hodographs and around 100 J/kg 0-3km MLCAPE typically would indicate some potential for a tornado. However, given modest boundary-layer moisture and weak 0-1 km shear, the tornado threat is expected to remain minimal. ...Oregon/Washington... Modest heating/destabilization will again support thunderstorm development across parts of the interior Northwest on Wednesday. Guidance still suggests that a midlevel shortwave trough embedded within the broader cyclonic flow may be favorably timed for storm development during the late afternoon/evening across western/northern OR into southern WA. Some uncertainty regarding low-level moisture, and hence degree of destabilization, is evident in forecast surface dewpoints. The operational NAM remains more aggressive with boundary-layer dewpoints compared to most other guidance. While some low severe potential may develop (mainly for hail), current expectation is for a few strong storms capable of mainly small, sub-severe hail. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS TO FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of strong gusts and large hail are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening across the central and southern High Plains. ...Southern/Central High Plains... An upper ridge will be centered over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains on Wednesday. Various weak impulses related to remnants of Day 1/Tuesday convection will be shifting east across KS/OK early in the period. Thereafter, forcing for ascent will remain nebulous until late in the period when a shortwave impulse is forecast to eject into the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity after 03z. This later impulse will be ill-timed for diurnal convection. Modest boundary-layer moisture (surface dewpoints from the mid 50s to low 60s F) is forecast from southwest TX northward through the OK/TX Panhandles and into far eastern CO/western KS. Steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg, with much of the instability focused above 700 mb atop a weak EML. Deep-layer flow also will remain fairly weak beneath the upper ridge, though favorable veering with height will be sufficient for effective shear values near 30 kt. Strong heating and low-level convergence should be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm development by afternoon. Shear will be marginally favorable for transient supercells and clusters. Elongated hodographs above 2-3 km coupled with favorable thermodynamic profiles suggest large hail will be possible with any sustained semi-discrete convection. Steep low-level lapse rates also may support isolated strong downburst winds. Modestly enlarged low-level hodographs and around 100 J/kg 0-3km MLCAPE typically would indicate some potential for a tornado. However, given modest boundary-layer moisture and weak 0-1 km shear, the tornado threat is expected to remain minimal. ...Oregon/Washington... Modest heating/destabilization will again support thunderstorm development across parts of the interior Northwest on Wednesday. Guidance still suggests that a midlevel shortwave trough embedded within the broader cyclonic flow may be favorably timed for storm development during the late afternoon/evening across western/northern OR into southern WA. Some uncertainty regarding low-level moisture, and hence degree of destabilization, is evident in forecast surface dewpoints. The operational NAM remains more aggressive with boundary-layer dewpoints compared to most other guidance. While some low severe potential may develop (mainly for hail), current expectation is for a few strong storms capable of mainly small, sub-severe hail. ..Leitman.. 05/02/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes are needed to the current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... ...Minnesota to Iowa... Elevated fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across parts of Minnesota into northern Iowa. Early-morning satellite and surface observations continue to show a stacked upper and surface low over the lower Great Lakes region. This system will continue to gradually shift east today, but will maintain breezy northerly gradient winds across the upper MS Valley. Previous 24-hour observations across MN show a slight drying trend with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 20s. Recent model solutions have had a slight moist-bias during this period, and continue the slow drying trend into this afternoon. Consequently, afternoon RH values will likely fall below yesterday's observed RH minimums. Gradient winds between 15-25 mph are expected with frequent gusts up to 35 mph. Little rainfall over the past week, coupled with curing from hot, dry, windy conditions yesterday, has allowed ERCs to approach the 90th percentile for some locations. Refinements to the risk area have been made across IA to reflect where local fuel reports indicate spring green up has sufficiently mitigated fuel receptiveness. ...Southeast NM into southwest TX... 00 UTC soundings from MAF and EPZ show steep mid-level lapse rates with dry, well-mixed boundary layers and PWAT values near 0.5 inch. This thermodynamic profile is expected to largely remain in place through the afternoon as ascent associated with an sub-tropical shortwave trough overspreads the region. A few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over the region where ERC values are in excess of the 80th percentile. Additional thunderstorms are expected in the periphery of the risk area, but latest ensemble guidance suggests the probability of wetting rainfall is higher. ...Georgia into South Carolina... Westerly gradient winds on the southern periphery of the Great Lakes low are forecast to be sustained around 15 mph (gusting to 20-30 mph) from GA eastward to the Carolina coast. A dry continental air mass moving into the region, coupled with diurnal warming, will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5 inch over the past 48-72 hours cast uncertainty onto the coverage of receptive fuels. As such, the fire concern will primarily be focused on local areas where dead grasses and other fine fuels have sufficiently dried over the past 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z No changes are needed to the current Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... ...Minnesota to Iowa... Elevated fire weather concerns are expected this afternoon across parts of Minnesota into northern Iowa. Early-morning satellite and surface observations continue to show a stacked upper and surface low over the lower Great Lakes region. This system will continue to gradually shift east today, but will maintain breezy northerly gradient winds across the upper MS Valley. Previous 24-hour observations across MN show a slight drying trend with dewpoints falling into the low to mid 20s. Recent model solutions have had a slight moist-bias during this period, and continue the slow drying trend into this afternoon. Consequently, afternoon RH values will likely fall below yesterday's observed RH minimums. Gradient winds between 15-25 mph are expected with frequent gusts up to 35 mph. Little rainfall over the past week, coupled with curing from hot, dry, windy conditions yesterday, has allowed ERCs to approach the 90th percentile for some locations. Refinements to the risk area have been made across IA to reflect where local fuel reports indicate spring green up has sufficiently mitigated fuel receptiveness. ...Southeast NM into southwest TX... 00 UTC soundings from MAF and EPZ show steep mid-level lapse rates with dry, well-mixed boundary layers and PWAT values near 0.5 inch. This thermodynamic profile is expected to largely remain in place through the afternoon as ascent associated with an sub-tropical shortwave trough overspreads the region. A few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible over the region where ERC values are in excess of the 80th percentile. Additional thunderstorms are expected in the periphery of the risk area, but latest ensemble guidance suggests the probability of wetting rainfall is higher. ...Georgia into South Carolina... Westerly gradient winds on the southern periphery of the Great Lakes low are forecast to be sustained around 15 mph (gusting to 20-30 mph) from GA eastward to the Carolina coast. A dry continental air mass moving into the region, coupled with diurnal warming, will support RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear probable, but widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.5 inch over the past 48-72 hours cast uncertainty onto the coverage of receptive fuels. As such, the fire concern will primarily be focused on local areas where dead grasses and other fine fuels have sufficiently dried over the past 24-48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Tue May 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TX AND SOUTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorm gusts and isolated large hail will be possible this afternoon/evening across eastern New Mexico and west Texas. ...Southern High Plains this afternoon/evening... The persistent omega block persists over the CONUS, with a deep low over the Great Lakes/Northeast, a ridge over the Rockies, and another midlevel low over northern CA. A plume of midlevel moisture extends from the northern CA low southeastward toward west TX, within the deformation zone between the two deep lows. Subtle speed maxima are moving northeastward from northern Mexico toward the southern High Plains, as low-level moisture gradually increases from the southeast (in response to weak lee troughing). In the immediate wake of morning clouds, strong surface heating and modest increases in low-level moisture will contribute to destabilization this afternoon, when MLCAPE will approach 1000 J/kg. The 12z MAF/EPZ soundings suggest that the warmest elevated mixed layer plume is already over TX, with cooler upstream temperatures. Thus, afternoon surface temperatures into the mid 80s should be sufficient to mix through the base of the elevated mixed layer, reducing convective inhibition and supporting scattered thunderstorm development across eastern NM/west TX along the lee trough. The weak-moderate buoyancy and steep lapse rate profiles, in combination with rather modest deep-layer shear and relatively straight hodographs, will support a mix of multicell clusters and perhaps some splitting supercells. The primary severe threat will be a few severe outflow gusts with the high-based storms, though isolated/marginally severe hail may occur with transient supercell structures and/or favorable storm mergers/interactions. The severe-weather threat will peak late afternoon and slowly diminish by late evening, though slightly elevated storms could persist overnight. ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 05/02/2023 Read more

The Papillion Fire Department shared tips on fire safety as drought gripped much of Nebraska, increasing the fire danger. A recent wildfire forced the closure of Highway 370 in Papillion. The fire department has also fought more fires than usual for this point in the year. KMTV 3 News Now (Omaha, Neb.), April 11, 2023

Human remains found in July and August 2022 at Lake Mead were determined to belong to a Las Vegas man who went missing while fishing in July 1998. The low level of the lake exposed more shoreline near the Boulder Beach swimming area. Another set of remains found behind Hoover Dam was identified and belong to a North Las Vegas man who drowned in April 1974. The body in the barrel that was found in May 2022 near a popular swimming and boating area has not yet been identified. The clothing, however, appears to date to the mid-1970s to early 1980s. The Associated Press (Las Vegas), April 27, 2023

Rio Grande Valley farmers were concerned about having enough moisture in the ground to get the cotton crop sprouted. There seemed to be just enough moisture, but then farmers were stressed, knowing that the crop needed more moisture to keep going. ValleyCentral.com (Harlingen, Texas), April 27, 2023

The driest April on record for parts of central Kansas has farmers hauling water and using last year’s hay. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), April 21, 2023

The Division of Wildlife Resources recommended a statewide total of 71,600 deer tags this year, a decrease of 2% from last year. Years of dry conditions in Utah have hurt mule deer numbers, which have stayed below state wildlife officials’ population targets. The extremely heavy snowpack of this past winter killed many deer and left others worse for wear. Fawns, in particular, did not survive well in parts of the state, but did well in desert areas. The Salt Lake Tribune (Utah), May 1, 2023 The Utah Division of Wildlife Resources recommends a decrease in the number of general-season deer hunting permits for a fifth straight year, but is seeking public feedback on this and other hunting recommendations. Some of the factors that adversely affect the deer population are poor or limited habitat, predators and harsh weather, such as drought or excessive snowfall like the state has had this winter. The proposal is for a decrease of 4,800 permits in Northern Utah (about 20% fewer than last year) and a decrease of 1,000 permits in Northeast Utah (about 11% fewer than last year). Increases are proposed for central, southern and southeastern Utah. KSTU-FOX 13 (Salt Lake City, Utah), April 4, 2023

Many Cowley County farmers are hoping for additional rain before the wheat harvest as precipitation has been scarce. One farmer said that his neighbor’s wheat field was sprayed because insurance would not cover cutting costs. Another neighbor sold all of his cattle for lack of grass and water. KWCH 12 (Wichita, Kan.), April 30, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon May 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current Elevated region across southwest MN and portions of IA within the D2 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below for more information. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A mix of dry and wet scattered thunderstorms will be possible across southeastern New Mexico. Gradual moistening is expected through the afternoon, with afternoon relative humidity approaching 30-40 percent. This, in combination with slower storm motions around 15 mph, will allow for measurable precipitation chances to increase through the afternoon. Relative humidity around 20 percent will be most likely across southeastern New Mexico in the early afternoon as thunderstorms develop with very dry sub-cloud conditions. A period of isolated dry thunderstorms will be possible within this region. ERCs in this region are approaching the 90th percentile. As such, this region has been included in isolated dry thunder. ..Thornton.. 05/01/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Mon May 01 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across southwest MN into parts of IA. North/northwesterly gradient winds are expected to linger across the region into Tuesday, and the persistent northerly flow will usher in a dry air mass from the Canadian Prairies. Ensemble and deterministic guidance shows a reasonable signal for 15-25% RH across this region with sustained winds between 15-20 mph. Although the axis of stronger mid-level winds will shift east through the day, gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible. Fine grasses across the region are expected to undergo curing today (Monday) given the warm, dry, and windy forecast, which should support the fire weather concern on Tuesday. Across the Southwest and Great Basin, another day of breezy southerly winds is expected, but an influx of moisture from the Gulf of California should limit RH reductions compared to today/Monday. Consequently, only localized fire weather concerns are anticipated, mainly across southern AZ to southwest NM where fuels are driest. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon May 1 19:56:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon May 1 19:56:02 UTC 2023.