Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 132037 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 17(17) 21(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 120W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 1(27) X(27) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) X(24) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 132036 TCMEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SUN AUG 13 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.8N 117.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.2N 119.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.7N 120.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 124.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.7N 127.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 116.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 132036 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023 ...FERNANDA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 116.5W ABOUT 670 MI...1075 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 116.5 West. Fernanda is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Fernanda is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

...FERNANDA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 the center of Fernanda was located near 15.5, -116.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm wind gusts, large hail and a tornado threat are expected late this afternoon into tonight, especially across the south-central Plains and Ozarks. Other severe thunderstorms will persist into early evening across New England. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy is unchanged from the 1630z outlook (see previous discussion below). The only minor change in severe probabilities is across parts of southeast MN into extreme southwest WI and eastern IA where the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been expanded. This expansion is related to severe potential late tonight into early Monday morning associated with convection beneath the cold core of the upper shortwave trough and in the vicinity of the surface low. Damaging wind potential will continue this afternoon across the TN Valley as an ongoing MCS spreads east/southeast. Ref Severe Thunderstorm Watch 641 and forthcoming MCDs for short term severe trends. Additional isolated severe storms will continue the next several hours across parts of Maine and vicinity where Severe Thunderstorm Watch 640 is in effect until early 01z. Severe potential is expected to increase from late afternoon into this evening across the south-central Plains toward southern MO. See MCD 1982 for short term severe potential across parts of KS. Early day convection has modified and stabilized the low-levels across MO (per mesoanalysis and 18z SGF RAOB) and will likely delay convection until this evening as the airmass recovers and a low-level jet increases. Convection will then spread east/southeast from KS/OK along residual outflow/differential heating corridor posing an all-hazards risk. ..Leitman.. 08/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023/ ...South-Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid-South... The Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks continue to be considerably influenced by persistent convection/MCVs at midday, with only modestly broken cloud cover across much of the warm sector ahead of the primary front. But a gradual trend of thinning/less prevalent cloud cover is noted from the west across the south-central Plains, which should allow for moderate to locally strong destabilization into/around peak heating. Deep convection is expected to develop in multiple zones by late afternoon/sunset, including across the middle Missouri Valley/eastern South Dakota vicinity near the surface low, and otherwise near the south/southeastward-moving front across southeast Nebraska and portions of Kansas, as well as across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and western/northern Oklahoma. Some of this convection, as it evolves across eastern Kansas toward the Ozarks, will interface with residual differential heating and a weak residual boundary or two. Seasonally strong winds aloft will influence supercell-favorable hodographs, with large hail initially the primary hazard. Several clusters of storms should evolve by early evening, potentially including northern Oklahoma/southeast Kansas into the Ozarks, where a somewhat higher-probability for wind damage, along with some tornado potential, is expected to exist this evening, and possibly linger into the overnight. ...Tennessee Valley/southern Appalachians... On the northern fringe of the upper ridge and stronger capping aloft, a remnant cluster/MCV across far southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas at midday will likely influence additional downstream convective development and intensification this afternoon within a moderate to strongly unstable environment. Westerlies remain a bit stronger than typical mid-August scenarios, and this should influence the persistence and organization of the storms, with some semi-organized multicellular clusters possible. Wind damage will be the primary hazard regionally. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1981. ...New England... A Slight Risk has been introduced for expectations of a somewhat greater severe-weather potential today. Isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to further develop through early afternoon along and ahead of the surface cold front. A moderately unstable environment and with deep-layer shear around 30-35 kt will support some organized multicells capable of severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1980. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The forecast generally remains on track. Breezy conditions are expected behind the cold front in Texas. However, RH will generally remain above critical thresholds. Some locally elevated conditions are certainly possible. Dry thunderstorm activity remains possible overnight in northern California. Coverage still appears to be very low at this time. ..Wendt.. 08/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023/ ...Synopsis... High pressure over the Northwest is forecast to intensify as it moves inland over portions of WA and OR. Gusty north winds and hot surface conditions are expected to support local fire-weather concerns. A weak mid-level low and monsoon moisture will also lift north across CA, supporting the potential for dry thunderstorms late D2/Monday into early D3/Tuesday. ...Northwest... As the upper ridge continues to intensify and move inland, northerly flow is forecast to increase across portions of southwest WA and central OR. Bolstered by a thermally induced surface trough, surface gusts of 15-25 mph gusts are expected within the higher terrain. Poor overnight humidity recoveries from the dry northerly flow and hot afternoon temperatures will support surface RH values below 35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely given critically dry fuels. ...Northern CA... Monsoon moisture associated with the weak upper low is forecast to move into portions of northern CA late D2/Monday into early D3/Tuesday. Model soundings show PWAT values of 0.7 to 0.8 inches atop dry low levels. Weak buoyancy aloft may support isolated thunderstorms into the overnight hours, with the potential for lightning ignitions given the dry low-level air mass. However, significant uncertainty remains on storm coverage and the exact placement with relatively modest forcing for ascent. IsoDryT highlight will be withheld for now, but may be needed should greater confidence in dry storm coverage develop in subsequent forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131736
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernanda, located several hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Western East Pacific (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for continued development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is
forecast to cross into the Central Pacific basin late tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east
Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected
to form by midweek while the system moves west-northwestward,
roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of Kentucky and Tennessee, extending north and east to the Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper shortwave trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains will develop eastward, extending from the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid-South by Tuesday morning. This will bring an belt of enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow stretching across the Ohio Valley vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. At the surface, low pressure in the vicinity of eastern IA at the beginning of the period will track east to Lake Erie by 12z Tuesday. A cold front attendant to the low will shift east/southeast, extending from eastern IL to northern TX by late afternoon. This front will continue east/southeast through the overnight hours, becoming aligned along the central/southern Appalachians to south TX. A pre-frontal trough is forecast ahead of the main cold front and will become the main focus for strong/severe thunderstorm development (along with any outflow/MCVs associated with prior day's or ongoing morning convection) from KY/TN eastward. Another band of strong/severe thunderstorms attendant to the synoptic cold front and surface low are possible across parts of northern IL/far southern WI eastward across southern Lower MI/IN and northern/western OH from Monday morning into the early evening. ...OH/TN Valley vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic... Convection will likely be ongoing Monday morning across the Lower OH Valley in association with a lead shortwave impulse ahead of the main mid/upper trough. This cluster/MCS will spread east/northeast across WV/VA and southern PA through the afternoon and over the Delaware Valley during the evening. Outflow from morning convection may sag southward into Middle/eastern TN and become a focus for additional diurnal convection from the Cumberland Plateau eastward into the Carolinas. A warm front will be draped across northern MD into southern NJ. To the south of the warm front, southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints, contributing to 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE (locally higher possible across eastern KY into TN). Moderate to strong vertical shear and steep low-level lapse rates will support a damaging wind risk from eastern KY into WV and the Mid-Atlantic. Where low-level flow is expected to remain more southeasterly in the vicinity warm front in the Delmarva vicinity, a locally higher tornado risk is possible. Further south across TN into the Carolinas, large-scale ascent will be somewhat weaker. However, moderate to strong instability, steep low-level lapse rates and modest vertical shear will support a risk for damaging winds. The greatest concentration of severe gusts is expected across parts of Middle into eastern TN. ...Lake Michigan vicinity into western OH... Beneath the core of the main upper trough and surface low, a tongue of boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the 60s) will arc westward from eastern OH to far eastern IA and southern WI/MI. This will result in a narrow corridor of MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. Within this cold core setup, enhanced low-level shear along a warm front will lead to enlarged low-level hodographs, becoming elongated above 2 km. This could support a couple of brief tornadoes and/or strong gusts from stronger cells from late morning into the afternoon. If any organized strong/deeper updrafts can be maintained, isolated hail to near 1 inch also will be possible. ..Leitman.. 08/13/2023 Read more

MD 1972 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636... FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 1972 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Areas affected...southwestern Kansas...the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636... Valid 122219Z - 122315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636 continues. SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms may continue to slowly organize and become accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts across and northeast of the Liberal KS vicinity through 7-9 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Strongest convection has gradually consolidated near the western Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent within a zone of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, downstream of a weak upper impulse turning northeastward across the southern Rockies. Modest easterly to northeasterly near surface inflow of moist air characterized by mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg may maintain vigorous convective development during the next few hours, and it appears possible that an MCV may gradually form as activity propagates northeastward. As it does, strengthening rear inflow to its south through southeast may gradually be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts by early evening. ..Kerr.. 08/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 36920195 37490234 37850038 36959951 36310003 36140169 36920195 Read more

MD 1971 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL GA...INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AL
Mesoscale Discussion 1971 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0513 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Areas affected...south-central GA...into portions of southeast AL Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122213Z - 130015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms may pose an isolated risk for damaging gusts through this evening. DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, scattered thunderstorms across parts of central GA and eastern AL have shown occasional intensification and the potential for isolated damaging gusts. Ongoing within a strongly unstable (3000-4000 J/kg), but weakly sheared environment, storms are excepted to remain predominately multi-cellular. With less than 20 kt of deep-layer shear evident on the FFC VAD, storm organization potential does not appear high. Upscale growth doesn't appear overly likely either, given the weak background and surface flow. Thus, the severe wind risk should be tied to occasional downdraft pulses within the strongest of the ongoing multi-cell clusters. Driven by the buoyancy, isolated damaging gusts will remain possible through this evening as storm slowly propagate south by southeast. The severe risk should gradually diminish after sunset with the onset of nocturnal stabilization. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 33808304 33888274 33808261 33328225 32928228 32608233 32278252 31968279 31748305 31518348 30978444 30828505 30878515 30938543 31158561 31828570 32318558 32958480 33188436 33388404 33638350 33808304 Read more

WW 0638 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0638 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 638 SEVERE TSTM CT NJ NY PA CW 122210Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 638 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Northern New Jersey Southeast New York East central Pennsylvania Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday night from 610 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will persist through the evening, some of which will be supercells capable of producing occasional large hail and wind damage. Additional storms will spread into the area late this evening and early tonight, with a continued severe threat. An isolated tornado or two could also occur with favorable storm interactions. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Poughkeepsie NY to 35 miles west southwest of Newark NJ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...WW 634...WW 635...WW 636...WW 637... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1968 ..WEINMAN..08/12/23 ATTN...WFO...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-033-055-071-093-102-103-122240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER HAAKON JACKSON MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 637 SEVERE TSTM SD 122040Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western South Dakota * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Initially isolated thunderstorms near the Black Hills will gradually increase in coverage this evening as the storms develop eastward east of the Black Hills. Large hail will be possible with supercells through this evening. The risk for severe gusts will probably increase once storm coverage increases. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Rapid City SD to 80 miles south southwest of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...WW 634...WW 635...WW 636... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1970 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN PA...NORTHERN NJ AND FAR SOUTHERN NY STATE
Mesoscale Discussion 1970 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0438 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Areas affected...parts of eastern PA...northern NJ and far southern NY State Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 122138Z - 122345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms with the potential for damaging gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado are possible this afternoon through the early evening. Uncertainty on the severe risk is high, but a weather watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated thunderstorms ongoing across parts of far eastern PA, NJ and southern NY State. Thus far, these storms have remained isolated in coverage ahead of a large cluster of more robust storms over western PA and northeast OH. Despite limited synoptic forcing for ascent from the lagging upper trough, the environment ahead of these isolated storms appears favorable to support some risk for severe weather this evening. Surface temps in the low to mid 80s are supporting ~1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with area VADs showing 40-50 kt of effective shear. With a CAPE/shear parameter space favorable for supercells, damaging gusts, hail and perhaps a brief tornado appear possible if storms are able to maintain intensity. The primary uncertainty with regards to the severe threat is the expected storm coverage. Broad-scale ascent is weak and thus far storms have been only marginally organized, likely from lingering inhibition evident on the 20z ALY sounding. However, recent HRRR runs suggests additional storm development/organization is possible through the early evening with a focus across far southern NY state into portions of northern NJ and far eastern PA. While confidence in storm evolution and the severe threat is low, conditions will be monitored for a possible watch. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 40177641 40687634 41157528 41377481 41857451 42157433 42287362 42077335 41707327 41227345 40827370 40397411 39927446 39657481 39507502 39467533 39527569 39627604 39677617 40177641 Read more

WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WEINMAN..08/12/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...DDC...ABQ...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-099-122240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT PROWERS KSC025-055-057-067-069-075-081-083-093-119-129-175-187-189- 122240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FINNEY FORD GRANT GRAY HAMILTON HASKELL HODGEMAN KEARNY MEADE MORTON SEWARD STANTON STEVENS NMC059-122240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 636 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NM OK TX 122005Z - 130300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 636 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 305 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Southwest Kansas Far northeast New Mexico Oklahoma Panhandle Texas Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to develop and consolidate into a thunderstorm cluster moving generally west to east across the watch area. Severe gusts will be the primary threat with the stronger thunderstorm outflow. Large hail may accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles northwest of Clayton NM to 50 miles east southeast of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...WW 634...WW 635... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25020. ...Smith Read more

WW 0635 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE RMG TO 35 SW AVL TO 15 NNE TRI. ..WEINMAN..08/12/23 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RNK...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-057-085-105-117-119-137-139-147-187-227-241-257-281- 291-311-122240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CHEROKEE DAWSON ELBERT FORSYTH FRANKLIN HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WHITE NCC003-009-011-021-023-027-035-045-071-089-109-111-115-121-149- 161-175-189-199-122240- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER ASHE AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA CLEVELAND GASTON HENDERSON LINCOLN MCDOWELL MADISON MITCHELL POLK Read more

WW 635 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC TN 121840Z - 130000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 635 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Georgia Western North Carolina Upstate of South Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-developed thunderstorm cluster moving east across the middle and eastern portions of Tennessee will continue into the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Damaging gusts will be the primary hazard with the stronger cores through the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles north northwest of Bristol TN to 60 miles west southwest of Anderson SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 633...WW 634... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith Read more