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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...FAR WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected this afternoon and evening across parts Minnesota, Wisconsin, and western Upper Michigan. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 08/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/ ...MN/WI/Western Upper MI... Latest surface analysis shows a strong cold front surging southeastward across ND. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front, along with shallow vertical mixing below a capping inversion, have resulted in a corridor of low-mid 60s dewpoints across much of MN. Strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 2500 J/kg. The cap will likely focus thunderstorm development to immediately along or even slightly behind the cold front, but given the strong winds aloft and focused convergence, a few intense bowing structures are expected. Damaging winds and hail appear to be the main threats. Storms will likely persist a few hours after dark and track into parts of northern/central WI and western Upper MI before weakening. ...southern GA/SC/FL... A very moist/unstable air mass will be present again today ahead of a cold front sagging into the southeast states. Winds aloft and large scale forcing are weak, suggesting convection will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and water-loading will contribute to isolated instances of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLUMBIA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level high pressure is forecast to continue building as it shifts eastward over the southern Rockies/Plains through the forecast period. To the west, a Pacific trough will overspread the Northwest, increasing mid-level flow into the Northern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Monsoon moisture will also support shower and thunderstorm chances over southern parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... As the upper ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will turn westerly as a Pacific trough begins to approach. While initially modest, winds are forecast to gradually increase through the day. At the same time, a thermally induced surface pressure trough/weak lee cyclone will bolster low-level pressure gradients in the lee of the Cascades, through the Columbia Basin and into northern MT. This will result in downslope winds of 20-25 mph, along with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. Widespread elevated and critical conditions are likely over the Northwest and parts of the northern Rockies where fuels are quite dry. Confidence in critical conditions is highest across the western Columbia Basin where RH is forecast to be lower and winds slightly stronger. To the south, monsoon moisture will linger over parts of southern OR and northern CA, supporting scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATS climbing above 1 inch and only modest storm speeds. However, area fuels remain very dry and receptive to lightning ignitions. While storms will tend to be come more efficient with wetting rains through the day, sufficient coverage should exist for isolated dry strikes outside of heavier cores across parts of southern OR and far northern CA. ...Central Texas... As the upper ridge rebuilds, very hot temperatures are expected across parts of TX and the southern Plains. Winds are forecast to remain weak, but temperatures well over 100F and exceptionally dry fuels may support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Especially across central portions of the state, local winds may occasionally reach 10-15 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Fernanda, located well to
the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and has begun issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Hilary, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Hilary are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Hilary are issued under WMO header WTPZ24
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Trees at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chaska were turning color and dropping their leaves early in mid-August due to stress from drought and/or heat. More borer damage occurred on trees that might not have happened otherwise. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis) , Aug 15, 2023

The Lower Colorado River Authority entered Stage 2 drought response on Monday, Aug. 14, and asked all firm water customers (municipalities, water districts and industries) to curb their water use by 10% to 20% and to enact mandatory water restrictions. The combined storage in Lake Travis and Buchanan, the two water supply reservoirs in the Highland Lakes, dropped below 900,000 acre-feet over the weekend, putting them at 46% of capacity. Customers were urged to reduce landscape watering. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), Aug 15, 2023

The Lower Colorado River Authority announced that Highland Lakes water will not be available in 2023 for most of its agricultural customers in Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda counties. Severe drought continues in the Texas Hill Country, affecting inflows and levels in the region’s water supply reservoirs at Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis. Agricultural customers in the Gulf Coast, Lakeside and Pierce Ranch operations lost access to Highland Lakes water this year, due to drought intensity and duration and the amount of water in the lakes. The combined water storage in Lakes Buchanan and Travis on March 1 was 1.037 million acre-feet, about 52% of capacity. LCRA remains in Stage 1 of its Drought Contingency Plan for Firm Water Customers, which began in July 2022. The combined storage in Lakes Buchanan and Travis was 1.2 million acre-feet, below the trigger of 1.4 million acre-feet, and interruptible supplies were curtailed. LCRA requested its firm customers voluntarily reduce their water use by 5% in July 2022. KXAN-TV NBC 36 (Austin, Texas), March 2, 2023

The town of Fairbury declared a water emergency. Lawn watering is permitted on an even/odd schedule depending on address. NewsChannel Nebraska (Grand Island), Aug 15, 2023

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S RDU TO 20 SSE RZZ. ..KERR..08/15/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC065-083-101-163-191-195-152340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDGECOMBE HALIFAX JOHNSTON SAMPSON WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 649 SEVERE TSTM NC SC VA 151750Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Carolina Northern South Carolina South Central Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, with multiple clusters of severe storms possible. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Charlotte NC to 10 miles northeast of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

The Town of Strasburg declared a drought emergency condition due to the low level of the North Fork of the Shenandoah River, the main water source for the town. This is the first drought emergency since 2017. The river’s seven-day average flow had dropped to 70 cfs as of Aug. 9, which led to the drought emergency declaration. The aim is to reduce daily water demand by 10% to 15% through mandatory water restrictions. The level of the North Fork River in Strasburg Aug. 15 was 1.7 feet which is not far above the record low of 1.5 feet set in February of 1934. WHSV Online (Harrisonburg, Va.), Aug 15, 2023

MD 2003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern Alabama and southwest Georgia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152151Z - 152345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have produced occasional damaging gusts this afternoon and will likely remain capable of isolated wind damage into this evening. Given the lack of storm organization, a weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of a frontal zone across the FL Panhandle, southeast AL and southwest GA. Over the last couple of hours, occasional strong to severe gusts (59 mph at KMAI) have been noted with a few of these storms. A strongly unstable environment, with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE is supporting, and is expected to continue supporting, strong updrafts through this evening. However, with little vertical shear, storm organization has remained limited to pulse multi-cell clusters. The strong buoyancy and PWATs over 2 inches will support the risk for isolated wet microbursts with the strongest storms. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible into this evening before nocturnal stabilization begins to limit the potential for strong updrafts. Given the limited potential for storm organizational, and the lack of broader synoptic support, a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30858645 30968642 31348582 31618541 31948486 32048454 32078339 31948295 31818298 31328325 30768386 30488430 30358475 30298536 30438605 30628638 30698642 30858645 Read more

WW 0651 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0651 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 651 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 152145Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 651 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 545 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to progress generally east-northeastward toward eastern North Carolina through the evening, with the stronger storms capable of wind damage and possibly some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of Fayetteville NC to 35 miles north northeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649...WW 650... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE RZZ TO 35 SW DOV TO 20 N TTN. ..KERR..08/15/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-152240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-015-019-037-039-045-047-152240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-025-029-033-152240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 650 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NC NJ PA VA CW 151810Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Northeast North Carolina Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of the storms will become severe, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Trenton NJ to 15 miles east of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A weak upper low is expected to remain off the California coast perhaps into early next week. Model guidance continues to differ in terms of the evolution of the upper-level pattern late this week into the weekend. At some point, an upper trough in the Northwest is expected to phase with the weak upper low. High pressure at the surface will remain in the Plains through midweek. Thereafter, a cold front is forecast to push southward into parts of the southern Plains late this week. ...Northwest... Dry and windy conditions appear probable on Thursday and Friday from the east side of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin. Temperatures will be higher on Thursday than on Friday. This could lead to a small increase in RH on Friday. However, guidance still suggests both days will reach critically low values. Winds on Thursday will primarily be driven by the thermal pressure trough in the Basin. Mid-level winds will increase on Friday as the mid-level jet overspreads most of Washington. Critical fire weather potential will exist on both days, but the greater potential should exist on Friday given the greater expected coverage of 20-25 mph winds. Thunderstorms are expected to occur each day through the weekend in parts of Oregon. PWAT values will continue to increase and lead to wetting rainfall potential. There is some possibility that storms may be slightly drier on Friday in north-central/northeast Oregon with drier air working in from the south and strong mid-level winds moving in from the north. Coverage of dry thunderstorms should remain low, though lightning away from storm cores could still pose problems. ...Montana... With an upper-level trough approaching the Northwest, a surface low is expected to deepen in Alberta. There is some model disagreement as to the evolution of the surface low late this week, but enhanced downslope winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday in the lee of the northern Rockies. With temperatures expected to be higher on Thursday, greater confidence in critical fire weather exists. Cooler temperatures and the potential for a cold front to limit the duration of fire weather concerns leads to less confidence on Friday. ...Texas... Hot surface temperatures should return to the region by Thursday. The development of thermal pressure troughs may lead to some locally elevated conditions in the presence of extremely dry fuels. There may be some broader increase in surface winds on Friday as a large-scale surface trough develops into the southern Plains. Trends will need to be monitored, but wind speeds continue to look too weak for critical probabilities. In addition, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the surface trough with the extreme heat, but predictability is quite low. ..Wendt.. 08/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Aug 2023 20:47:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Aug 2023 21:23:07 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 152045 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fernanda Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 Fernanda seems to be resuming a weakening trend possibly due to moderate deep-layer shear and embedded dry air. Infrared satellite images indicate that the coverage of deep convection has decreased during the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB remain at 77 kt and 102 kt, respectively. CIMSS ADT and AiDT estimates are in the 90 kt to 99 kt range. Thus, the initial intensity is decreased to 90 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is now moving westward at 10 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. A weak mid-level ridge to the northwest of Fernanda is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next several days. The current NHC track forecast has been updated with minor adjustments. The official forecast track takes Fernanda over cooler waters, crossing the 26C isotherm in 18 to 24 hours. While the current moderate vertical wind shear is expected to diminish in about 12 hours, the hurricane will be encountering an increasingly dry and stable airmass. Therefore, Fernanda is forecast to quickly weaken over the next couple of days. Fernanda is now expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.3N 122.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.7N 129.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.9N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/0600Z 18.2N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z 18.4N 138.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z 18.4N 144.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1800Z 18.2N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Delgado/Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 152040 PWSEP2 HURRICANE FERNANDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC TUE AUG 15 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FERNANDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER DELGADO/BUCCI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 152040 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Fernanda Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Tue Aug 15 2023 ...FERNANDA RESUMES WEAKENING OVER OPEN WATERS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 122.8W ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fernanda was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 122.8 West. Fernanda is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a general westward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days. Fernanda is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday and weaken to a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Delgado/Bucci