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Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 702 WTPZ44 KNHC 182046 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Hilary remains a large and powerful major hurricane. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the northern portion of Hilary and found a higher minimum pressure than expected of 948 mb, 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt, and peak SFMR surface winds of 93 kt. However, the aircraft did not sample the southern half of the circulation, which currently has some of the deepest convection. Blending the available aircraft data and latest satellite intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 115 kt. Hilary continues to slowly bend to the right, and the initial motion is northwestward or 315/10 kt. A general north-northwest to north motion with a steady increase in forward speed is expected tonight and through the weekend as the system is steered by pronounced steering flow between a strong subtropical ridge over the south-central U.S. and a mid- to upper-level low off the central California coast. The models have trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has followed suit. Based on the latest forecast, the core of Hilary is expected to be very near the central portion of Baja California Saturday night and move inland over southern California by Sunday night. It should be noted that strong winds and heavy rains will occur well ahead of the center. Fluctuations in the hurricane's strength are expected through tonight, but Hilary is expected to begin weakening on Saturday as it moves over progressively cooler SSTs and into an environment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, partially due to the lower initial intensity, and a little higher than the HCCA and IVCN models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary will begin well in advance of the center, from the Baja California Peninsula into the Southwestern United States. Preparations for the impacts of flooding from rainfall should be completed as soon as possible, as heavy rain will increase ahead of the center on Saturday. In the Southwestern United States, flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is expected, with the potential for dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula Saturday night and are possible in the Hurricane Watch area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible by late Sunday in portions of southern California where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 4. Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and south California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 18.7N 112.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 182046 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) X(27) X(27) LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) X(27) X(27) S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 43(50) X(50) X(50) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 42(61) X(61) X(61) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) X(17) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 1( 1) 37(38) 52(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 46(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P ABREOJOS 34 X 5( 5) 58(63) 11(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 6 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 3 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LORETO 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 13 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 115W 34 49 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) 20N 115W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 25N 115W 34 1 29(30) 65(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 25N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 73(75) 3(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) 46(46) 3(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 182046 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2023 ...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 112.2W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM W OF SOCORRO ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning on the west coast of Baja California northward to Cabo San Quintin and upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning north of Loreto on the east coast of Baja California and north of Guaymas in mainland Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch has been extended westward from the Orange/Los Angeles County Line to Point Mugu. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San Quintin to Ensenada A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos southward * Baja California peninsula entire east coast * Mainland Mexico north of Guaymas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Guaymas * Baja California north of Ensenada to the California/Mexico border * California/Mexico border to Point Mugu * Catalina Island A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the southwestern U.S. should monitor the progress of Hilary. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 112.2 West. Hilary is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the north Saturday night and Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move close to the west coast of the Baja California peninsula over the weekend and reach southern California by Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Hilary is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely through tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Saturday, but Hilary will still be a hurricane when it approaches the west coast of the Baja California peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Hilary is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday before it reaches southern California. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hilary can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml. RAINFALL: Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts up to 10 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding, locally catastrophic, will be possible, especially in the northern portions of the peninsula. Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States through next Wednesday, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches, are expected across portions of southern California and southern Nevada. Dangerous to locally catastrophic flooding will be possible. Elsewhere across portions of the Western United States, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected, resulting in localized flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning Saturday night and are possible within the hurricane watch by early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area tonight, and are possible within the watch area in Mexico on Saturday and Sunday and in southern California beginning late Sunday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal flooding along the western Baja California peninsula of Mexico near where the center passes the coast in areas of onshore winds, or east of the center if Hilary makes landfall. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Hilary will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, the Baja California peninsula, and south California over the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...HILARY REMAINS A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING LIKELY OVER MUCH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 3:00 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 the center of Hilary was located near 18.7, -112.2 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 182045 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC FRI AUG 18 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.2W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 360SE 300SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 112.2W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 200SE 110SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.6N 114.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 190SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.4N 116.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 34.1N 117.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 39.3N 117.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 112.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A large-scale upper ridge will dominate the central and southern U.S. through the forecast period. Through the early part of the upcoming week, the remnants of Hilary will track northward across portions of the Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, potentially accompanied by soaking rainfall and a plummet in fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. To the west of the Cascades though, the eastward passage of Hilary may encourage dry, downslope easterly winds, where fuels are highly receptive to wildfire spread. Details of such a scenario are highly dependent on the placement and timing of Hilary remnants, hence no fire weather highlights have been introduced. However, several days of dry and windy conditions are possible across the central/southern High Plains into central Texas, where fuels have been steadily curing over the last couple of weeks. Multiple days of dry/windy conditions should prime fine fuels for some wildfire spread potential, especially Days 3-4/Sunday-Monday, where 40 percent Critical probabilities have been added. The probabilities were added across portions of Texas and the Central High Plains, where confidence is highest in the need for Elevated highlights by the Days 1-2 period. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...MONTANA...AND NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible, mainly from late afternoon to mid-evening across parts of Montana, the Desert Southwest, and New England. ...20Z Update... The general thunderstorm area has been trimmed across New England, but no changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas. Uncertainty remains regarding potential for substantial redevelopment of deep convection across New England, but isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out if any stronger storms can be sustained. Storms capable of producing localized severe gusts remain possible later this afternoon into this evening across parts of MT and the Southwest. See the previous discussion below for more information, and MCD 2013 regarding the near-term threat across Montana. ..Dean.. 08/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023/ ...MT... Despite lingering mid-level clouds tempering insolation to some extent, surface temperatures should still heat into the 90s across eastern MT by late afternoon. Large-scale ascent attendant to a shortwave trough tracking east from southern BC to the lee of the Canadian Rockies should largely hold north of the international border. But low-level speed convergence should increase this evening along a trailing surface cold front and this may aid in sustaining isolated thunderstorms off the higher terrain of southwest MT. While MLCAPE should remain meager (at or below 500 J/kg), very deeply mixed profiles east of the terrain will support a threat for isolated severe wind gusts. ...Desert Southwest.... Weak deep-layer shear will be the primary limiting factor to a more organized severe wind threat, with mainly 15-25 kt 500-mb southerlies between a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Plains and a cutoff low off the southern CA coast. Scattered thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain, aided by a high PW air mass emanating north from the Gulf of CA, will pose a threat for sporadic severe wind gusts as they spread/collide northward within the deeply mixed environment across the lower deserts. ...New England... In the wake of this morning's tornadic supercell, low-level winds have substantially veered and weakened ahead of a north to south-oriented cold front pushing east into western New England. With a wedge of greater insolation between it and cloud cover associated with the early-day convection that is now largely off the coast, MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg should redevelop over the next few hours and support deepening convection along the front. While adequate deep-layer shear will remain, the increasingly poor low-level wind fields should mitigate an organized damaging wind threat. Still, a few strong gusts remain possible until the front reaches the coast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z The main change to this outlook was to add an isolated dry thunderstorm area across portions of northern California into southern and central Oregon. The latest guidance consensus depicts an appreciable risk for at least a few dry thunderstorms, where fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 08/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... Along the southern periphery of an expansive midlevel anticyclone centered over the central Plains, moderate low/mid-level east-southeasterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central into west TX. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will support 15 mph sustained southeasterly surface winds. These winds, combined with 100+ deg surface temperatures and around 15 percent RH, will yield elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of central and west TX (where fuels are critically dry). Farther northwest, a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is possible across parts of southern OR, as a series of midlevel shortwave troughs cross the region. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles could limit rainfall accumulations, though slow storm motions and PW near 0.75 inches cast uncertainty on the dry thunderstorm threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilary, located less than 400 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves slowly toward the
west-northwest or northwest, generally parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Bucci

Houston Public Works has noted a slight increase in water main breaks with about 300 pending water leaks, compared to the norm of less than 100. Many of the leaks were occurring in parts of Houston with older infrastructure. Houston Public Media (Texas), Aug 14, 2023

Heat and drought were taking a toll on crops in Jones County. WITN-TV NBC 7 Greenville (N.C.), Aug 14, 2023

Gov. Greg. Abbott issued a disaster declaration Friday, Aug. 11, across parts of Texas due to the wildfires that began on July 24. The wildfires pose an imminent threat of widespread or severe damage, injury, or loss of life or property in multiple counties across Texas. KENS 5 (San Antonio, Texas), Aug 11, 2023

The Mississippi Headwaters Watershed entered the drought warning phase as defined by the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources Statewide Drought Plan. Consequently, residents of Edina were asked to voluntarily reduce their water use outdoors. During the drought warning phase, summer water use should be limited to 50% above January levels. Hometown Source (Eden Prairie, Minn.), Aug 16, 2023

Lake Proctor has fallen below 1,150.1 feet, entering stage four – Pro Rata Curtailment, the worst drought category for the Brazos River Authority’s Drought Contingency Plan. The Upper Leon River Municipal Water District and agricultural irrigators get water from the lake. Big Country Homepage (Abilene, Texas), Aug 16, 2023

No watches are valid as of Thu Aug 17 21:41:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Aug 17 21:41:01 UTC 2023.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2023 21:13:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 Aug 2023 21:29:47 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172056 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023 Hilary has an impressive appearance on satellite imagery. The eye, which is becoming better defined, is surrounded by very cold cloud tops in the CDO. There are numerous convective banding features, especially over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over all but the northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Recent objective Dvorak T-numbers support an intensity of about 95 kt, which is used for this advisory. The hurricane continues to move on a west-northwestward track with an initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Global models indicate that a mid-tropospheric ridge currently situated to the north of Hilary will shift eastward over the next few days while a cutoff low remains near the California coast. This should result in a steering pattern that will cause the system to gradually turn toward the northwest, north-northwest, and north with increasing forward speed during the next 72 hours. The official forecast track has not changed much from the past few advisory packages, and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus solutions. Since the forecast track is roughly paralleling the coastline north of the central Baja peninsula to the California border, it nearly impossible to know at this point if the center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before reaching the southwestern United States. Hilary is over very warm waters, near 30 deg C, with extremely low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to low-level atmospheric environment. Therefore additional intensification is highly likely for the next day or so. The various SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities of RI during the next day or so. The most likely indicated intensity increase is around 25 kt over the next 24 hours, which is also shown in the NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters and land interaction should result in some weakening. The official wind speed forecast remain near or above latest HCCA guidance. The surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a day 5 forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to maintain a forecast track over the southwestern United States. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is possible with the potential for significant impacts. 2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula and hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by late Friday where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could be issued for portions of this area on Friday. 4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 108.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 172055 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092023 2100 UTC THU AUG 17 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OXNARD CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 1(27) OXNARD CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) OXNARD CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SANTA CRUZ IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 1(24) SANTA CRUZ IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) SANTA CRUZ IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) LONG BEACH/LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) LONG BEACH/LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) LONG BEACH/LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) S CATALINA IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 1(38) S CATALINA IS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) S CATALINA IS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 46(49) 1(50) SAN DIEGO CA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) SAN DIEGO CA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) X(35) TIJUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) TIJUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 49(59) 1(60) ENSENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) ENSENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 13(32) X(32) IS GUADALUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) IS GUADALUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 86(87) 3(90) X(90) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 57(57) 3(60) X(60) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 2(32) X(32) P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 77(82) 1(83) X(83) P ABREOJOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) 1(48) X(48) P ABREOJOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26) X(26) LORETO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) X(28) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) P PENASCO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 2(25) X(25) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) 20N 110W 34 16 44(60) 5(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 110W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 67 32(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 71(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 24(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 34 2 10(12) 12(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 5( 5) 32(37) 9(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 70(89) X(89) X(89) 25N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 60(63) 1(64) X(64) 25N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) X(40) X(40) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH