Aggregator

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 032037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 ...DORA A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 121.8W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 121.8 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible tonight. However, weakening is expected on Friday and Saturday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DORA A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Aug 3 the center of Dora was located near 14.4, -121.8 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 032036 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC THU AUG 03 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 121.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 121.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

MD 1822 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 581... FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1822 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Areas affected...central portions of Alabama and Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581... Valid 032024Z - 032230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 581 continues. SUMMARY...Risk for damaging wind gusts continues across WW 581, and will continue to expand southward with time into central portions of Alabama and Georgia. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an organized/nearly continuous band of strong/locally severe storms, extending west-to-east from northeastern Georgia to northwestern Alabama. The band is moving southeastward at 25 kt, with local gusts resulting in multiple areas of tree damage over the past hour. With gradual destabilization still underway, expect this band of storms to remain organized and continue moving southward over the next few hours. As storms encroach on the southwestern edge of the watch over the next hour or so, consideration of an areal WW extension -- or new WW issuance -- will become necessary. ..Goss.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33778832 33638722 33708573 33948408 34268314 33708237 31768322 31638601 31818796 33778832 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The primary change with this update was to add an Elevated area for parts of central Texas into southwest Oklahoma. While current indications are that sustained surface winds could be slightly weaker (around 10 mph with 15-20 mph gusts) than previous days, continued 100 deg afternoon temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates amid the gusty afternoon winds will still support elevated fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Farther west, only minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Monsoon moisture will continue to expand west on D2/Friday with scattered wet/dry thunderstorms and an inverted-v thermal profile across portions of eastern Oregon, northeast California and northwest Nevada. ERC values in this region are mostly in the 90th percentile across this region, supporting new lightning starts. Slow storm motion and the potential for wetting rain under some cores precludes the need for a SctDryT area despite scattered storm coverage. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Columbia Basin on Friday as a weak surface low develops across northeast Washington. Winds are expected to be around 10 to 15 mph with relative humidity around 15 to 20 percent. ERCs are in the 90th to 95th percentile in this region. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted, given the dry and breezy conditions amid dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z The primary change with this update was to add an Elevated area for parts of central Texas into southwest Oklahoma. While current indications are that sustained surface winds could be slightly weaker (around 10 mph with 15-20 mph gusts) than previous days, continued 100 deg afternoon temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates amid the gusty afternoon winds will still support elevated fire-weather conditions given very dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Farther west, only minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023/ ...Synopsis... Monsoon moisture will continue to expand west on D2/Friday with scattered wet/dry thunderstorms and an inverted-v thermal profile across portions of eastern Oregon, northeast California and northwest Nevada. ERC values in this region are mostly in the 90th percentile across this region, supporting new lightning starts. Slow storm motion and the potential for wetting rain under some cores precludes the need for a SctDryT area despite scattered storm coverage. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Columbia Basin on Friday as a weak surface low develops across northeast Washington. Winds are expected to be around 10 to 15 mph with relative humidity around 15 to 20 percent. ERCs are in the 90th to 95th percentile in this region. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted, given the dry and breezy conditions amid dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHWEST NY... ...SUMMARY... The most concentrated threat for severe gusts and large hail will be later this afternoon into early tonight across parts of the central Plains. ...Discussion... The only appreciable change made to the previous convective outlook was to adjust severe probabilities across parts of TN/AL/GA based on the evolution of the broken band of storms this afternoon over AL/GA. ..Smith.. 08/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023/ ...Central High Plains later this afternoon into tonight... A midlevel shortwave trough over northwest CO/southwest WY will begin to turn more eastward this afternoon/evening, with a belt of modestly enhanced midlevel flow expected to overspread the central High Plains this afternoon into early tonight. Residual boundary-layer dewpoints at or above 60 F in the post-frontal environment, along with daytime heating in cloud breaks, will drive moderate buoyancy this afternoon/evening from northeast CO eastward into northern KS. Diurnal convection is expected to first form by mid afternoon near or just east of the Front Range, and storms will subsequently spread eastward across east/northeast CO and southwest NE while gradually growing upscale through storm interactions. Isolated large hail will be possible the more discrete/initial storms that could have some supercell structures given modest hodograph length and effective bulk shear near 35 kt and midlevel lapse rates greater than 7 C/km. Damaging winds will become the primary threat this evening into early tonight, with a few swaths of 60-75+ mph winds possible. ...TN Valley this afternoon/evening... The remnants of an overnight MCS in MO has now progressed into southern middle TN and extreme northern AL, with a general weakening trend over the past few hours. Diurnal destabilization is ongoing to the south-southwest of the weakening storms from northeast MS across northern/central AL into northwest GA, but there is uncertainty regarding the future evolution of the ongoing storms. One possibility is for some intensification along the leading outflow as the convection moves toward northwest GA/northeast AL through early-mid afternoon, though the storms/outflow are not phased particularly well with the more unstable warm sector. Also, the stronger midlevel flow tends to lag the initial convection, and these concerns keep confidence low in the evolution of the afternoon storms (and any resultant wind damage threat). Aside from diurnal intensification, there will be the potential for late evening/early overnight storm formation in another west-northwest/east-southeast oriented band from TN into northern AL. Given the inherent uncertainty in the forecast and at least two possible storm scenarios, will only make minor changes to the ongoing outlook. ...NY to eastern Lower MI this afternoon into tonight... An embedded speed max is rotating east-southeastward over southern ON and will reach the Saint Lawrence Valley by late evening/early tonight. Some convection is ongoing in association with this shortwave trough and a surface cold front, and some low-level warming/moistening will occur ahead of the front from ON into northwest NY through this evening. The primary convective threat will likely to spread into northwest NY near or after sunset, but there will still be some potential for isolated damaging winds, especially if an storms evolve into an organized band prior to crossing into NY late this evening into tonight. Farther west into Lower MI, thunderstorm coverage is more in question, given that the stronger forcing for ascent will pass to the north of this area. Lapse rates/buoyancy and some modest enhancement to deep-layer vertical shear will conditionally favor the potential for isolated wind damage or some hail, but storm coverage is likely to remain rather isolated. Read more

Mandatory, nonessential water restrictions remained in place in Avoca and other towns in Pottawattamie County and the surrounding area since the end of May. Due to the high water demand, the Regional Rural Water Association’s water treatment plant has been running nonstop for the past 18 days without a moment of downtime for maintenance because people would run out of water if the plant were shut down. WOWT TV 6 (Omaha, Neb.), Aug 2, 2023

The Ogallala Aquifer beneath West Texas was being drawn down at a quick rate, due to drought and heat. Conservation was needed to protect the aquifer. KCBD (Lubbock, Texas), Aug 2, 2023

A burn ban was in effect for St. Tammany Parish for the next 14 days as extreme heat and drought increased the fire danger. WWL-TV (New Orleans, La.), Aug 3, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 3 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected
to develop from this feature during the next day or so, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system. A tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend as
it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but not
far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing hail and damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Northeast on Friday afternoon. Additional strong storms are possible along a broad arc from the central Plains to the Southeast. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the Northeast will feature moderate westerly flow moving through its base during the period. A flattened mid-level anticyclone over the southwest border states will remain while a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level flow extends from the central Rockies across the central Great Plains and towards the southern Appalachians. ...Northeast... A cold front will push through the region during the period. Along this boundary, showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning near the NY/Ontario border. Southerly low-level flow will maintain a fetch of 60s deg F dewpoints. Heating during the morning amidst cloud breaks will result in a moderately unstable airmass by midday into the early afternoon. A weak cap will erode and scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop in a broken band from PA north-northeast into New England by 17z. A mix of cells and linear structures will likely transition to mostly linear convection during the afternoon with widely scattered damaging gusts being the primary hazard. The thunderstorms will weaken by evening as they approach the coast. ...AR to Southern GA/Northern FL... Similar to Thursday morning, showers and thunderstorms will likely occur Friday morning from eastern MO southeastward into the TN Valley. Remnant outflow and a zone of differential heating related to this early day activity will be focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Very moist low levels will contribute to moderate to strong instability. It remains unclear if/where a thunderstorm cluster will form during the afternoon. Damaging gusts will be possible with the stronger storms. ...Central Plains... Not much change in forecast thinking at this point compared to the previous convective outlook. Moist, upslope low-level flow within moderately unstable environment will support thunderstorm development over western portions of the central High Plains by late afternoon. A weak boundary is forecast to develop southward across NE into KS with storm coverage increasing during the evening. Several thunderstorm clusters, initially posing a risk for hail and strong gusts, are expected to develop east/southeast and likely focus the majority of the isolated severe risk. ..Smith.. 08/03/2023 Read more

Des Moines Water Works employees raised the flashboards on the Raccoon River for the third consecutive year to increase the amount of water it can access as the river was 83% below its normal levels. The public is asked to voluntarily adhere to a watering schedule, based on one’s address. Des Moines Register (Iowa), Aug 2, 2023

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 2 22:19:20 UTC 2023.

MD 1815 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1815 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0509 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Areas affected...Portions of northern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 022209Z - 022345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A severe wind threat will persist for another 1 to 2 hours across northern Utah. DISCUSSION...A cluster/broken line of thunderstorms has produced severe wind gusts across portions of the southern Salt Lake Basin over the past 1 to 2 hours. These storms continue to move north into a region with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This should support a continued threat for damaging wind gusts into the evening across northern Utah. Expect these storms to weaken by mid to late evening as storms move out of the greater instability and the boundary layer begins to cool. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 08/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC... LAT...LON 40541200 40501273 40711317 41311332 41871293 41981121 41711101 40901110 40631126 40541200 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into the Northwest... A plume of monsoonal moisture will be in place across parts of the northern Great Basin into the Northwest on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. This midlevel moisture atop a warm/deeply mixed boundary layer will yield sufficient instability for high-based thunderstorms -- aided by a series of subtle/low-amplitude midlevel impulses and possible MCVs crossing the region. 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in central OR into northeast CA/northwest NV will favor isolated dry thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions on Days 3-4/Friday-Saturday. Deeper monsoonal moisture over eastern OR will promote a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms, with storms becoming increasingly wet into western ID. The primary concern with this activity is lightning strikes along the peripheries of rain cores. Strong/erratic outflow winds are possible with thunderstorms each day given the deep/dry sub-cloud layer. ...Central Texas... Slightly weaker sustained surface winds on Day 3/Friday (compared to previous days) could limit the fire-weather threat briefly over central TX. With that said, continued 100 deg afternoon temperatures and critically dry fuels will still support elevated fire-weather conditions. Thereafter, an increase in surface winds is possible on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday, leading to increasing fire-weather concerns. Currently, confidence in the development of critical conditions is too low to add probabilities, though highlights may eventually be needed. ...Southwest... Despite persistent thunderstorm activity across the Southwest over the last week, rainfall accumulations have generally been minimal with the exception of northwest AZ. By Day 3/Friday into next week, a warming/drying trend is expected across the Southwest, which combined with strengthening winds could result in increasing fire-weather concerns. Continued model differences on the overlap of strong winds/low RH over dry fuels casts uncertainty on where the fire-weather threat will be maximized, though probabilities/highlights could eventually be needed. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at 1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind. Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a continued south of due west track through the entire forecast period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids, but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The models respond to this less favorable environment by showing weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence than the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at 1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind. Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a continued south of due west track through the entire forecast period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids, but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The models respond to this less favorable environment by showing weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence than the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 20:50:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 21:32:09 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 20:50:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Aug 2023 21:32:09 GMT