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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z Added an Elevated area for the Snake River Valley where winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent are expected tomorrow. Fine fuels have started to dry in the region and will be increasingly susceptible to large fire, especially after dry and breezy conditions today. Also added an Elevated area across much of southern and eastern Wyoming. Winds of 20 to 30 mph with some gusts to 35 mph are expected across Wyoming tomorrow. Fuels in this area are not excessively dry, but given the high-end critical meteorological conditions, felt an Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere no changes were needed. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Two regions of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Wednesday. Across portions of northern Montana, post frontal northerly flow will overlap drying fuels and relative humidity reductions to around 15-25 percent. Though fuels within this region are drying, they remain too moist to support inclusion of a Critical region at this time. Across the southern US, a tropical system impacting the Gulf of Mexico will bring an increase in northerly gradients across portions of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Areas across eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi have seen prolonged heat and drought conditions, which has resulted in explosive fire behavior under more marginal meteorological conditions due to extremely critically dry fuels. Some questions remains how recent rainfall and any potential additional rainfall in the coming 24 hours will change the status of fuels. Given potential for sustained winds around 10-15 mph and relative humidity as low as 20 percent, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook with a slight extension further south in Texas/Louisiana. This area will need to be monitored for Critical highlights in future outlook updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z Added an Elevated area for the Snake River Valley where winds of 20 to 25 mph and relative humidity of 15 to 20 percent are expected tomorrow. Fine fuels have started to dry in the region and will be increasingly susceptible to large fire, especially after dry and breezy conditions today. Also added an Elevated area across much of southern and eastern Wyoming. Winds of 20 to 30 mph with some gusts to 35 mph are expected across Wyoming tomorrow. Fuels in this area are not excessively dry, but given the high-end critical meteorological conditions, felt an Elevated delineation is warranted. Elsewhere no changes were needed. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 08/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Two regions of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible on Wednesday. Across portions of northern Montana, post frontal northerly flow will overlap drying fuels and relative humidity reductions to around 15-25 percent. Though fuels within this region are drying, they remain too moist to support inclusion of a Critical region at this time. Across the southern US, a tropical system impacting the Gulf of Mexico will bring an increase in northerly gradients across portions of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Areas across eastern Texas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi have seen prolonged heat and drought conditions, which has resulted in explosive fire behavior under more marginal meteorological conditions due to extremely critically dry fuels. Some questions remains how recent rainfall and any potential additional rainfall in the coming 24 hours will change the status of fuels. Given potential for sustained winds around 10-15 mph and relative humidity as low as 20 percent, an Elevated delineation was maintained with this outlook with a slight extension further south in Texas/Louisiana. This area will need to be monitored for Critical highlights in future outlook updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291723
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Aug 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Irwin, located more than 1200 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The city of Sequim declared a drought emergency, and residents were urged to voluntarily conserve water. The Washington Department of Ecology declared a drought emergency in late July for watersheds including the Dungeness River basin, which supplies Sequim with water via wells. Low stream flows jeopardize operations at fish hatcheries and salmon migration, so fishery and irrigation managers were coordinating to optimize stream flows to aid pink salmon presently migrating up the Dungeness River to spawn. My Clallam County (Port Angeles, Wash.), Aug 25, 2023

Drought in Canada led to a decline in the goose population, which will result in fewer geese, or “honkers,” for Torrington’s 2Shot Goose Hunt in early December. Canada’s potholes and small ponds where ducks and geese breed went dry this spring, leading to lower numbers of ducks and geese. In some places, the Canada goose population was up to 42% lower. In the Rocky Mountain region, counts were down about 25%. Cowboy State Daily (Lander, Wyo.), Aug 28, 2023

Wildfires continued to burn in the southwest part of Louisiana. The blaze in Vernon Parish blackened nearly 4,000 acres of forest and was 40% contained. KALB-TV (Alexandria, La.), Aug 28, 2023

The Tiger Island Fire in Beauregard Parish charred at least 33,000 acres and was 50% contained. A special firefighting team arrived to help battle the flames. KALB-TV (Alexandria, La.), Aug 28, 2023

Business has been down 20% for an inner tube and kayak rental service with a couple of locations in eastern Iowa. Rivers were low due to little precipitation, and low river levels meant that renters sometimes damaged equipment by popping tubes and scraping the kayaks. The low water levels may have resulted in a financial loss of $4,000-$5,000. Sand Lake in Iowa City was too low to even have a season renting equipment. KCRG Online (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), Aug 29, 2023

More than 450 fires have blackened parts of Louisiana as record-breaking heat and severe drought conditions gripped the state. The Tiger Island Fire, the largest wildfire in the state’s history, grew from about 15,000 acres on Friday, Aug. 25 to more than 33,000 acres Sunday and was just 50% contained. Two lives have been lost in fires in St. Tammany and Washington parishes. Louisiana, one of the wettest states in the country, averages 771 wildfires a year, according to 10-year average data from the Louisiana Agriculture and Forestry Department. The state has averaged 21 wildfires per day over the past several weeks. The Washington Post (D.C.), Aug 29, 2023 Hundreds of wildfires were burning in Louisiana amid intense heat and drought. The Tiger Island Fire in Beauregard Parish in western Louisiana led to evacuation orders and blackened more than 10,000 acres, or approximately 16 square miles. The flames reached 300 feet in height. A statewide burn ban that took effect in early August remained in place. Firefighters were exhausted from battling blazes and pleaded with the public to observe the burn ban. The Associated Press (Baton Rouge, La.), Aug 23, 2023

Mineral Wells was in Stage Two water restrictions and was days away from entering Stage Three restrictions when water usage should be cut by 30%. Lake Palo Pinto was at 35% capacity on Aug. 29. Water from the Brazos River was being pumped into the lake to increase supply, but treating the water was costly and time-consuming. Special equipment required to treat the water was delayed. WFAA (Dallas, Texas), Aug 29, 2023 Drought conditions in the Mineral Wells area have the region on track to hit stage 3 drought restrictions this summer. The Mineral Wells city manager also secured another significant source of raw water for the district, which serves customers in Palo Pinto and Parker counties. The district will purchase Brazos River water, which would be blended with water from Lake Palo Pinto. Weatherford Democrat (Texas), May 23, 2023 Lake Palo Pinto dropped below the trigger level for Stage II of Mineral Wells’ drought contingency plan. Starting April 1, all outdoor water use is prohibited except for animals. The aim is to curb total water use by 25%. Weatherford Democrat (Texas), March 24, 2023

Drought has caused the ground in St. Martinville to shift and crack and break waterlines. City maintenance crews shut off the water citywide to repair the leaks. The city was under a boil order until further notice. KATC (Lafayette, La.), Aug 28, 2023

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 28 21:42:02 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 28 21:42:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Tropical storm (soon to be hurricane) Idalia will move into the Southeast on Wednesday bringing strong winds and heavy rain to much of Georgia and Florida, into the Carolinas. On the western periphery of this tropical system, dry northerly winds may result in some elevated to critical fire conditions in drought stricken regions from central Texas to western Mississippi. An amplifying mid-level trough will cross Montana on Wednesday with a surface low and cold front also traversing the state. In the wake of this cold front, dry and breezy westerly flow is expected across northern and eastern Montana. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected in a similar region on Thursday, but rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday may result in some wetting rain and limit fire weather concerns, at least for some portions of north-central and eastern Montana. Several days of dry and breezy conditions are expected from Nevada to Wyoming beneath moderate mid-level flow and a deeply mixed airmass. However, fuels across this region do not support significant fire spread due to recent precipitation. ..Bentley.. 08/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2023 20:32:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Aug 2023 21:35:41 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 282031 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023 Deep convection has been fading away, and Irwin is getting closer to becoming a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite imagery suggests mid-level dry air is wrapping around much of circulation and an area of decaying convection remains over the northern portion of storm. The initial intensity remains at 35 kt based on recent ASCAT passes. Irwin has yet to make its much anticipated westward turn and is still moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. Still, model guidance insists the cyclone will go to the west shortly and remains tightly clustered. The general westward motion, with a increase in forward speed, is expected to continue through the forecast period. The latest track forecast has shifted to the north and lies between the previous forecast and the simple consensus aids. The storm appears to be in the process of weakening. The extent of tropical-storm-force winds in the northeast quadrant has decreased significantly based on the satellite-derived surface wind data. Sea surface temperatures and mid-level relative humidities are expected to decrease along the forecast track and Irwin is expect weaken further in the next day or so. The storm is still forecast to become a remnant low within 48 hours, though this could happen sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.6N 124.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.0N 126.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 19.0N 129.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 18.9N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 19.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z 19.2N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 19.3N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z 19.2N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2023 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 282030 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 29 X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 282030 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102023 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 28 2023 ...IRWIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 124.2W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 124.2 West. Irwin is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected shortly and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so and Irwin is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...IRWIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS... As of 11:00 AM HST Mon Aug 28 the center of Irwin was located near 18.6, -124.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2023 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 282030 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102023 2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.2W AT 28/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.2W AT 28/2100Z AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.8W FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.0N 126.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.9N 131.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.0N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 19.2N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 19.3N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 19.2N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 124.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI