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A pumpkin grower near Morton, Illinois was afraid that the soil would be too dry to plant his pumpkin seeds since it had been 50 days since rain had fallen. He chose to plant the seeds deeper to hopefully help the seeds access moisture. Recent rainfall moistened the soil, helping the new plants push up through the soil. The dry spell may have shaved 30% off of his typical corn yield. High Plains Public Radio (Garden City, Kan.), July 17, 2023

Corn near Seward, Nebraska was grayish rather than green at the end of June and only reached up to one’s ankle or calf instead of being as tall as a man. Early July rains helped the corn, allowing it to become greener and taller. High Plains Public Radio (Garden City, Kan.), July 17, 2023

WW 0510 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ARG TO 30 SSE PAH TO 35 ENE PAH. ..WEINMAN..07/18/23 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...PAH...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 510 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC093-182040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MISSISSIPPI KYC035-055-075-083-105-143-157-221-182040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALLOWAY CRITTENDEN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LYON MARSHALL TRIGG MOC069-155-182040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUNKLIN PEMISCOT Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. The threat for widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Please see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 07/18/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge across the West will amplify and extend into more of the Canadian Rockies on Wednesday. At the surface, the pressure pattern will generally become more diffuse in the West. Mid-level moisture will remain underneath the ridge in the Great Basin and Southwest. With the weak surface winds expected, only locally elevated fire weather concerns are expected. This will primarily occur in the Southwest and southern Great Basin where fuels are dry. Mixed wet/dry thunderstorms are again expected in part of the Great Basin. The greatest coverage of storms will likely occur over central/northern Nevada and northern Utah. Storm motions may be similar to perhaps slightly slower than on Tuesday. PWAT values, though, will remain near an inch. The overall threat for ignitions still appears too low for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Record numbers of cattle continued to be sold at the Kingdom City sale barn in central Missouri. Some producers were selling entire herds as drought persisted. The recent livestock sale was the third record sale in three months. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), July 18, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181740
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South-Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next few days as it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin. By late Friday, the system is forecast to
move over cooler waters, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail and damaging winds appear possible Wednesday from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur from the Ozarks into the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, along with the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will remain confined to parts of the Northwest, Southwest, and southern Plains on Wednesday. A mid/upper-level trough/low is forecast to move from central Canada and the northern Plains across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. A belt of enhanced (35-50+ kt) mid-level northwesterly flow should persist across these regions, and into parts of the mid MS and OH Valleys. A separate upper trough should progress over the eastern U.S. through the day. Multiple low-amplitude, convectively enhanced mid-level perturbations should advance generally east-southeastward within the west-northwesterly flow regime that will remain over much of the central/eastern CONUS. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ozarks... As the upper trough/low moves east-southeastward, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along and east/southeast of a cold front. Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass will foster the development of moderate to locally strong instability from parts of MN into southeastern SD, NE, and northwestern IA. Deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt will easily support supercells, with associated threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts. Isolated very large hail appears possible across parts of central/eastern NE and eastern MN/western WI with this activity. Based on consensus of latest guidance, have introduced a fairly broad Slight Risk to account for this supercell potential. The eastern extent of the severe risk should be modulated by the narrow zone of greater low-level moisture return. The southern extent of supercell potential into KS is rather uncertain, as large-scale ascent becomes increasingly modest into the central Plains. Still, there appears to be some risk for intense convection to develop/spread southeastward from NE into at least northern KS through Wednesday evening. Some potential also exists for a cluster of thunderstorms producing severe/damaging winds to spread from eastern CO into KS and perhaps eventually parts of MO Wednesday evening/night. ...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... At least isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Cloud cover and poor lapse rates may tend to limit the development of substantial instability until late Wednesday afternoon. Still, at least moderate instability should eventually develop and support robust updrafts. Better chances for strong to severe convection appear to exist along/east of a weak surface trough across eastern NC/VA/MD and vicinity. Occasional damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity, as deep-layer shear appears adequate for mainly multicells and small clusters. But, some hail may also occur with the strongest updrafts. Based on latest guidance, have expanded the Marginal Risk across this region to include more of eastern NC/SC and the Delmarva. ...Kentucky/Tennessee and Vicinity... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may be present at the start of the period across this region. This activity may pose at least an isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds, as deep-layer shear appears strong enough to support supercells. Most guidance shows a weakening trend to this morning convection. The potential for additional robust convective development in the wake of the morning thunderstorms is highly uncertain. But, some chance exists for renewed convection Wednesday afternoon/night along and south of a weak front. The environment will conditionally support a threat for all severe hazards, as enhanced northwesterly flow aloft appears sufficient for supercells. Have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk across KY/TN and vicinity to account for potentially multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms through the period. ..Gleason.. 07/18/2023 Read more

Sangamon County has received some rain recently, but the rain did not benefit everyone. One farmer in the county reported that his crop condition had not improved. He expected to harvest 70% of a normal corn crop and about 60% of normal from his soybeans. WICS-TV (Springfield, Ill.), July 18, 2023

Residents in Blanco were in a water emergency after a water main break on Friday, July 14. All unnecessary water use was to cease under the Stage 6 water restrictions. By the morning of July 15, all of the city water tanks were full, but the emergency restrictions were to remain in effect through at least noon on July 17. Prior to the break, the mayor described the water supply as being vulnerable in mid-June as the city’s water plant was not operating, and the local river was too low for them to draw water from it. CBS News (New York), July 17, 2023

WW 0507 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0507 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 507 SEVERE TSTM AR MO MS TN 172145Z - 180500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 507 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central, northern and eastern Arkansas Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western Tennessee * Effective this Monday afternoon from 445 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of strong-severe thunderstorms should move out of the main body of Missouri and into a large reservoir of favorable instability and moisture across the Mid-South, offering sporadic severe gusts and large hail. Some lateral expansion and new development across AR and/or TN also may occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Russellville AR to 45 miles east southeast of Jackson TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 503...WW 504...WW 505...WW 506... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 33030. ...Edwards Read more

WW 0505 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 505 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/17/23 ATTN...WFO...ILX...PAH...IND...IWX...ILN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 505 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-033-035-041-045-047-049-055-065-079-081- 101-115-139-145-147-159-173-183-185-191-193-172240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DOUGLAS EDGAR EDWARDS EFFINGHAM FRANKLIN HAMILTON JASPER JEFFERSON LAWRENCE MACON MOULTRIE PERRY PIATT RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION WABASH WAYNE WHITE INC005-009-011-013-015-021-023-027-029-031-035-041-045-047-051- 053-055-057-059-063-065-067-071-075-079-081-083-093-095-097-101- 105-107-109-119-121-125-129-133-135-137-139-145-153-157-159-161- 165-167-171-177-172240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE Read more

WW 505 SEVERE TSTM IL IN 172030Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 505 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 430 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and eastern Illinois Central and southern Indiana * Effective this Monday afternoon from 430 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move east-southeast across the watch area through this evening with a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles southwest of Mattoon IL to 40 miles southeast of Muncie IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 503...WW 504... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0504 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 504 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..07/17/23 ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...LSX...PAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 504 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-027-051-119-121-133-135-157-163-189-172240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON KSC011-021-037-107-121-172240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LINN MIAMI MOC009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-031-035-037-039-043-051- 053-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-083-085-091-093-097-099-101- 105-109-119-123-125-131-135-139-141-145-149-151-153-157-159-161- 167-169-179-181-183-185-186-187-189-201-203-207-209-213-215-217- 219-221-223-225-229-510-172240- Read more

WW 504 SEVERE TSTM KS MO 171830Z - 180200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 504 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme eastern Kansas Southern and central Missouri * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeast across the watch area through this evening. Large hail, possibly very large, and damaging winds are the primary severe hazards. A tornado or two will also be possible. With time, storms are expected to merge into clusters with and pose a more substantial damaging wind threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Joplin MO to 65 miles east southeast of Vichy MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 503... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0506 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 506 SEVERE TSTM KS OK 172055Z - 180400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southcentral Kansas Northwest and northcentral Oklahoma * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small complex of intense severe thunderstorms will move southeast across the watch area through this evening with a risk for isolated very large hail up to 4 inches in diameter, and significant damaging winds. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 40 miles south southwest of Enid OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 503...WW 504...WW 505... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 32020. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0503 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 503 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1597 ..GLEASON..07/17/23 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TSA...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 503 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-099-125-191-205-172140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY SUMNER WILSON OKC001-021-035-037-041-047-053-071-081-083-097-101-103-105-111- 113-115-117-119-131-143-145-147-172140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE GARFIELD GRANT KAY LINCOLN LOGAN MAYES MUSKOGEE NOBLE NOWATA OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA PAWNEE PAYNE ROGERS TULSA WAGONER WASHINGTON Read more

MD 1602 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1602 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Arizona Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 172045Z - 172245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are possible through the afternoon. A watch is not expected given the localized/sporadic nature of the severe risk. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along the Mogollon Rim and far south-central AZ this afternoon, where temperatures have warmed into the 105-110 F range amid upper 50s dewpoints. The resulting deep boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates -- characterized by an inverted-V thermodynamic profile -- will support dry microburts with severe-outflow potential with any stronger updrafts that develop. Weak deep-layer shear should generally limit updraft longevity/organization, and the overall coverage of severe storms is expected to remain too minimal for a watch. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/17/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR... LAT...LON 31271116 31421164 31641217 31971236 32761244 33801246 34211236 34361207 34391165 34181103 33791041 33060985 31690944 31300954 31280990 31271116 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND FROM EASTERN WYOMING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and damaging wind gusts are mainly expected from the Black Hills southeastward into Nebraska tonight, and across portions of the Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley today. Shifted the slight/marginal risk farther north across the Ohio Valley to account for current location of the cold front and the threat for additional strong to severe thunderstorms. See MCD 1598 and 1599 for additional information. Expanded the marginal risk farther north into central Arizona. Thunderstorms are developing along the Gila Range with enough convective coverage for a potential cluster/cold pool to develop. The HRRR has trended toward this solution with the potential for some stronger wind gusts in a westward moving cluster this evening. Final change was expansion of the significant hail area across Missouri, into far western Illinois, and more of Kansas. The 18Z KSGF RAOB supports the potential for significant hail with nearly 4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40 knots of effective shear. Storm mode will be the primary question as recent radar trends show significant upscale growth across central Missouri. This could mitigate the significant hail threat in that region and increase the potential for a concentrated severe wind swath. However, confidence is low how this cluster may evolve. Elsewhere, no changes were necessary. See MCD 1597 for information about northeast Oklahoma. ..Bentley.. 07/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2023/ ...Central/southern Plains east Ozarks and Ohio Valley... Moderately strong northwest/west mid-level flow will persist from the central/southern Plains east to the OH Valley through tonight. Heating of a moist air mass ahead of a nearly stationary front, combined with a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a rather large region of strong to locally extreme instability in the presence of substantial deep-layer shear supportive of organized storms. Ongoing severe storm cluster over southeast KS will likely continue moving south-southeast into an environment characterized by 40-50 kts of shear and MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/jg. Damaging winds and potentially very large hail will be possible with this complex as it moves across northeast OK. Additional thunderstorm development is likely across the Ozarks vicinity along remnant outflow boundaries this afternoon, ultimately resulting in additional clusters or line segments moving southeast/south through this evening. Damaging winds will be the primary severe threat, and with large (isolated very large) hail with the more discrete/intense updrafts. Across the OH Valley, clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop as clearing/heating occurs in the wake of morning storms. Effective shear of 30-40 kts will support both supercell and multicell clusters persisting through the late afternoon and early evening with severe wind/hail potential. ...Eastern Wyoming/Black Hills/Nebraska... A sharpening lee trough ahead of the northern Rockies upper trough will result in moist low-level upslope flow into the Black Hills/eastern Wyoming and southeast Montana vicinity. The proximity of the upper ridge may somewhat temper the extent of deeper convection, however at least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening in a moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment, with storms increasing in coverage toward/after sunset. Steep lapse rates and long straight hodographs will support large to locally very large (greater than 2 inch diameter) hail. As the low-level jet strengthens during the evening, upscale development into a bowing MCS is possible as convection tracks southeastward across western/southern South Dakota and Nebraska. Damaging gusts, potentially significant, may accompany this MCS during the evening and overnight hours, and a Significant Wind area has been added with this outlook. ...Northern Great Basin and Central/Eastern Montana... Moderate to strong west-southwest mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region ahead of the northern Rockies upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moistening will support MLCAPE around 500-1250 J/kg. Well-mixed boundary layers will result in mostly high-based, low-precipitation convection capable of sporadic strong dry microburst winds from far northeast Nevada/northern Utah into central Montana. With eastward extent into parts of eastern Montana, deeper boundary-layer moisture will result in the potential for isolated strong gusts as well as hail. ...Southern AZ... Diurnal heating of a moist environment (PW 1.5 inches) will contribute to afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon, and dry mid-levels with 15-20 kts of easterly flow will result in a risk for gusty/damaging winds as storms move west through evening. Read more