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MD 1679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Areas affected...western Wisconsin and Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 222036Z - 222230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of large hail may continue through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm activity across Minnesota and Wisconsin have produced scattered reports of 0.50"-1.25" hail, along with one report of 2.5 inch hail near Marcell, MN. Convection is further aided by a mid-level impulse digging southward across Minnesota at this time. RAP sounding analysis indicates largely straight hodographs with steep low-level lapse rates and unstable conditions through the profile. MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg overlaps deep layer shear around 30-35 kts. Discrete convection has been able to produce larger hail within this environment. Forcing for ascent remains somewhat weak, though moisture convergence is evident from surface objective analysis and surface observations. Uncertainty if discrete storm mode will continue and duration/coverage of the large hail threat. Instances of sub-severe hail and hail up to 1-1.5 will be possible. Trends will continue to be monitored but a watch is unlikely to be issued at this time. ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD... LAT...LON 44379096 44239102 43899172 43809258 43729337 43719403 43779495 43829552 43829606 44099621 44419633 45019605 46239555 46859556 47359558 48109504 48059356 47749298 47109277 46479275 46169227 46009175 45689092 45299056 44379096 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds remain possible into this evening across parts of the central Plains. Storms capable of isolated damaging gusts may persist into this evening across parts of the Southeast, and develop by early evening over parts of Arizona. ...20Z Update... The Slight Risk has been trimmed slightly across parts of AL/GA, in the immediate wake of storms sagging southward toward the Gulf Coast. The Marginal Risk has been expanded across parts of northern MN, southwest MN into southeast SD, and north-central NE, where developing cumulus and storm initiation has been recently observed within a somewhat favorable (but weakly forced) environment, with hail and localized damaging gusts the primary threats. A small part of the Marginal Risk has been trimmed across far northeast MN/northwest WI, where substantial redevelopment appears likely in the wake of earlier convection. Otherwise, no major changes have been made. Storms capable of locally damaging winds will remain possible through the afternoon across parts of the Southeast, and may develop by early this evening across parts of Arizona. Storms capable of hail and localized severe gusts may increase in coverage late this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, with a more isolated threat into the upper Midwest. See the previous discussion below for more information. See MCD 1677 for more information regarding the threat across parts of the central Plains. ..Dean.. 07/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023/ ...KS Vicinity... Morning visible satellite imagery shows clear skies over most of KS, where strong heating will combine with dewpoints in the mid 60s to yield afternoon MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg. Large scale forcing is subtle in this region, with weak mid-level height rises and diffuse surface boundaries expected to influence storm potential. Nevertheless, most 12z CAM solutions continue to show potential for widely scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon. Deep northwest flow aloft will provide sufficient vertical shear for rotating updrafts capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...Gulf Coast Region... A weak surface boundary extends from southern MS eastward into southern GA today. The air mass along and south of the boundary is very moist and unstable. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect this region through the afternoon. The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies lies along the boundary, and will likely result in at least isolated instances of damaging wind gusts. Please refer to MCD #1675 for further details. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Southern California... Updated Hi-res model guidance has trended stronger with the aforementioned shortwave rotating around the west side of the upper-level ridge. Area model soundings show dry low-levels, with deep inverted V structures, and sufficient CAPE for thunderstorms across portions of the southern California mountains and deserts. The stronger shortwave, and presence of increasing monsoon moisture lend higher confidence in dry thunderstorm coverage being slightly higher than previously forecast. Storms are most likely across portions of the High deserts and eastern most Transverse Ranges. More localized storms are possible farther west across the Ventura and Peninsular Ranges, but uncertainty increases toward the coast. With the greater confidence in isolated storm coverage, dry fuels and lightning, an IsoDryT area has been added for portions of southern CA. ...Northern Great Basin into southern/western ID... In addition to gusty winds and lower humidity, isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of northeastern NV, into far eastern OR and southern ID D2/Sun evening into early D3/Mon. With a deep and dry mixed layer present on area forecast soundings, little wetting rain potential is expected with any storms able to develop. The highest confidence in storm coverage is across portions of eastern ID where less receptive fuels are present. However, very isolated dry storms are possible, with some potential for lightning ignitions within receptive fuels, across portions of far southeast OR and southwestern ID. ..Lyons.. 07/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will start to shift east on Sunday which will allow some stronger mid-level flow to overspread the Northwest and the northern Great Basin. Downslope flow in the lee of the Sierra and deep mixing across northern Nevada/southern Oregon will allow winds to increase to 15 to 20 mph during the afternoon amid single-digit relative humidity. Some enhancement of the flow is possible across southern Nevada on Sunday as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves northward around the western edge of the anticyclone. This shortwave trough is currently across central New Mexico and may undergo some convective enhancement during the D1/Saturday period. Due to the influence of Day 1 convection on the strength of this trough, will not add an Elevated area at this time. Some elevated conditions are possible in the Snake River Plain on Sunday as stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region and low pressure develops in the northern Great Basin. However, fuels in the area remain only marginally dry. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is not warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF ARIZONA...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind will be possible across parts of Georgia and the Carolinas on Sunday. Thunderstorms with isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are also possible mainly Sunday evening over portions of Arizona. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region is forecast to build into a larger portion of the central/southern Plains on Sunday, as an upper trough over the eastern CONUS gradually weakens and shifts eastward. At the surface, a weakening cold front will likely be draped somewhere from south-central TX northeastward into southern parts of LA/MS/AL, central/southern GA, and the eastern Carolinas. A weak surface low may develop over the northern High Plains and move southeastward along a surface trough. ...Parts of Georgia and the Carolinas... Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front across parts of the Southeast. The most favorable overlap of instability, stronger flow aloft, and storm coverage is expected from parts of Georgia into the Carolinas, immediately in advance of the main upper trough. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon, with deep-layer shear sufficient for a few modestly organized cells/clusters capable of localized damaging gusts and small to perhaps marginally severe hail. Isolated strong storms may also develop farther west near the southern Appalachians, within a drier but modestly unstable regime. Coverage of the severe threat appears too low for probabilities at this time, but some threat for isolated damaging gusts could evolve in this area as well. ...Arizona... Very strong heating and increasing PW will support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development during the late afternoon near the Mogollon Rim, and potentially into the lower deserts across AZ. Isolated microbursts will be possible with the initial development. 15-20 kt of easterly midlevel flow along the southern periphery of the ridge may support a few outflow-driven, westward-moving clusters capable of at least localized severe gusts into Sunday evening. Some threat could reach as far as the lower CO River Valley before weakening. ...Central/northern Plains into the Midwest... A broad portion of the central/northern Plains and Midwest will reside in a regime characterized by northwesterly mid/upper-level flow, modest low-level moisture, relatively steep low/midlevel lapse rates, and generally weak large-scale ascent. Very isolated storm development will be possible within this regime, with sufficient instability and deep-layer to support a conditional supercell risk. Severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of this area, if confidence increases in the location and coverage of potential development. ..Dean.. 07/22/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221722
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E, located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2023 14:35:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 22 Jul 2023 15:29:31 GMT

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221435 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 The depression has been devoid of deep convection near its center since yesterday as it continues to deal with strong west-southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air. What little convection remains is well displaced from the center. The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB was that the system is too weak to classify. Given the satellite trends, the depression has degenerated into a remnant low with an intensity set at 25 kt. The remnant low is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. This general motion should continue due to the steering flow from a low- to mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system. Gradual weakening will continue over the next 24 hours, before the system opens up into a trough tomorrow. This is the final NHC advisory for this system. For additional information on the remnant low, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.0N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 23/0000Z 17.4N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/1200Z 17.6N 133.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023 378 FOPZ14 KNHC 221434 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023 260 WTPZ24 KNHC 221434 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042023 1500 UTC SAT JUL 22 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 129.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 129.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.4N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.6N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 129.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BROWN

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 259 WTPZ34 KNHC 221434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042023 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2023 ...DEPRESSION WEAKENS INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 129.4W ABOUT 1330 MI...2135 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 129.4 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnant low is expected to continue weakening and open up into a trough tomorrow. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown

...DEPRESSION WEAKENS INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FOR THIS SYSTEM... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 the center of Four-E was located near 17.0, -129.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

The city of Tomball entered a Stage 1 drought and recommended residents follow voluntary water conservation measures. Community Impact – Houston (Texas), July 19, 2023

The city of Tomball entered a Stage 1 drought and recommended residents follow voluntary water conservation measures. Community Impact – Houston (Texas), July 19, 2023

Low river and lake levels were causing problems for boaters in southern Minnesota. More propellers were being damaged in shallow waters, leading to more business for boat repair shops. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis), July 17, 2023

The Arizona Game and Fish Department provides water for wildlife by using heavy-duty water trucks and helicopters to replenish water catchments. The Washington Post (D.C.), July 21, 2023

Ponds in Missouri were low and drying up further as drought conditions worsened across the state. Producers were hauling water to livestock. Brownfield Ag News (Jefferson City, Mo.), July 20, 2023

Intense drought conditions in Missouri were forcing cattle producers to sell more livestock than they normally would because pastures were drying up. Some were selling entire herds as the dry conditions meant that cattle needed their diets supplemented with hay and other grains earlier than normal. Some cattle producers never stopped feeding hay from the past winter. Flatland (Kansas City, Mo.), July 20, 2023

Grasshopper numbers were higher than usual this summer across much of Eastern Oregon. The grasshoppers reduced the yield from grass hay fields somewhat. They ate the grass as it grew, and stripped leaves from the alfalfa, leaving only stems. A rancher in the Keating Valley wore safety goggles while riding a four-wheeler to protect her eyes from the many grasshoppers. Capital Press (Salem, Ore.), July 21, 2023

Christmas tree seedlings were struggling and dying for lack of moisture. Newly planted seedlings on a tree farm in Linn County were dying. After the 2013 drought, a seasoned Christmas tree grower in Buchanan County learned to mulch and water each of his thousands of trees to help them withstand future droughts. Radio Iowa (Des Moines, Iowa), July 21, 2023

Below normal rainfall over much of Minnesota led the state Department of Natural Resources to place six watersheds in a Drought Watch Response Phase. The watersheds include the Mississippi Headwaters, Western Superior, Croix, Rainy River, Upper Mississippi-Black-Root and Upper Mississippi-Maquoketa-Plum. Four other watersheds--Des Moines River, Missouri-Little Sioux, Missouri-Big Sioux, Red River--remained in various drought response phases since the summer of 2022. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (St. Paul, Minn.), June 15, 2023