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MD 1832 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1832 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Areas affected...portions of northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 042004Z - 042230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is gradually increasing across portions of northern MO. Damaging gusts are the main threat though a tornado or two, as well as an instance of large hail, are also possible. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...The remnants of an MCV continue to track eastward along the northeast KS/northwest MO border area, with clearing skies and backed surface winds preceding the MCV. Surface temperatures are rising into the low to mid 80s amid mid to upper 70s F dewpoints, contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid eroding MLCINH. With continued heating and further destabilization, an eventual increase in convective coverage and intensity should take place across northern MO this afternoon. 19Z mesoanalysis/1936Z EAX VAD profile shows elongated low-level hodographs, with the latest mesoanalysis also showing modest 0-3 km CAPE and vertical near-surface vorticity overlapping near the MCV center. As such, storms that manage to organize this afternoon should mature into multicells or perhaps supercells capable of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, along with an instance of large hail. Given the slower trends in increasing storm coverage and intensity, the timing for the need of a WW issuance remains uncertain. However, a WW issuance may ultimately be needed this afternoon, whenever a appreciable increase in convective trends is noted. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 08/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX... LAT...LON 39289513 39909482 40119434 40229340 40129268 39749218 39319226 39029267 38879330 38909394 38959464 39059498 39289513 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Northeast, Missouri, and the central into the southern High Plains later today through early tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the wind probabilities within the Mid-South/Southeast to account for observations and stabilization behind ongoing convection. The remainder of the outlook is unchanged. ..Wendt.. 08/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough continues to slowly progress across the Northeast as an upper ridge remains in place across the southern CONUS, with multiple mid-level perturbations cresting the upper ridge over the Central Plains. Though some cloud cover and showers/thunderstorms persist across the Northeast, adequate clearing through the remainder of the morning should efficiently heat the boundary layer beneath cooler mid-level temperatures and stronger flow aloft to promote strong to potentially severe thunderstorms through the afternoon. Meanwhile, residual clouds, showers, and thunderstorms should clear across the MO Valley into the Southeast today, with surface heating contributing to adequate buoyancy to support strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. These storms should initiate with the passage of the aforementioned mid-level impulses cresting the upper ridge. Lastly, upslope low-level flow will support the development of strong to potentially severe thunderstorms across the central into the southern High Plains later this afternoon and evening. ...Northeast... Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms are expected to initiate across the Hudson Valley late this morning into early afternoon ahead of a surface lee trough as surface heating continues across the Northeast. 16Z mesoanalysis shows modest (i.e. 6-6.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates overspreading the Hudson Valley. Nonetheless, -14 to -15 C 500 mb temperatures and 70+ kts of 300 mb flow (in association with an approaching upper-level jet streak) will promote adequate instability (given mid 60s F surface dewpoints) and deep-layer shear to support a severe threat this afternoon. Multicells and transient supercell structures are expected, with large hail and damaging gusts the main concerns. By late afternoon, storms should congeal into one or more clusters. If this occurs, then damaging gusts will become the primary threat. ...MO Valley into the Southeast... Ongoing clouds and precipitation should gradually clear through the afternoon to support increasing buoyancy (perhaps over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) as 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads 70+ F surface dewpoints. The approach of an MCV from the remains of an earlier MCS will support convective initiation later this afternoon around and just east of the KC Metropolitan area. Elongated and curved hodographs (especially in the low-levels) will encourage multicell and supercell structures initially. While damaging gusts are the main threat, locally backed low-level winds ahead of the MCV track may encourage a localized tornado threat for a few hours. However, storms should merge into one or more MCSs later this afternoon, with severe gusts the primary concern. Across the southeast, thunderstorm clusters should develop along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge. Given rich low-level moisture and strong buoyancy (with the 16Z mesoanalysis already showing up to 5000 J/kg SBCAPE in place), water-loaded downdrafts may accompany the stronger storm cores, and at least isolated damaging gusts are possible later this afternoon. ...Central into the Southern High Plains... Upslope flow induced by a surface lee trough, along with diurnal heating, will support the development of at least isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon, from western SD to the TX Panhandle. A plume of 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates will advect over the central High Plains in tandem with the ejection of a subtle 700 mb impulse. 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and an increase in deep-layer shear will result, with modestly lengthening hodographs (and 40 kts of effective bulk shear) expected. Multicells and supercells are expected to be the initial storm modes, with both severe hail wind the primary threats. By evening though, weak low-level shear should encourage outflow and subsequent cold pool mergers, with severe gusts then becoming the dominant severe threat. A few outflow-dominant thunderstorms may also develop along the surface trough across portions of the southern High Plains by afternoon peak heating. These storms will develop atop a dry, mixed boundary layer, with a couple of severe gusts possible. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z No changes are needed to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 08/04/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will continue for Saturday across the southern Plains and parts of the Southwest/Four Corners. Isolated dry thunderstorms are also expected across parts of the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great Basin. ...Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance shows good agreement in the gradual ejection of the northern Rockies upper low into the Plains through the day Saturday. Lee troughing, coupled with thermally-driven pressure falls, should yield a modest surface low over the western OK/northwest TX where temperatures are expected to climb into the 100-105 F range. Ensemble guidance suggests the probability of sustained 15+ mph winds is generally low across central TX where fuels are currently most critical. A stronger pressure gradient near the surface low may support 15 mph winds (and hence the greatest fire weather concern) across northwest TX/southwest OK during peak heating. However, this region may also see afternoon thunderstorms per latest forecast soundings and ensemble QPF probabilities, which casts uncertainty into the duration and coverage of the fire weather threat. While elevated concerns appear most likely at this time, the potential for critical conditions will be monitored considering the critical nature of the fuels. ...Arizona into New Mexico... The aforementioned surface low over the Panhandles region will also augment westerly flow across northern AZ into northern NM. Sustained winds near 15-20 mph coupled with 15-20% RH appear likely based on both deterministic solutions and ensemble probabilities. While elevated conditions appear most probable, drier/windier solutions hint at the potential for critical conditions. Scattered pockets of wetting rain over the past 7 days complicate fuel status to some degree, but at least low-end fire weather concerns appear likely. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A slow-moving upper trough is expected to linger over the Pacific Northwest through the day Saturday. An influx of mid-level Pacific moisture and lift associated with this feature will result in another day of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Forecast soundings continue to show PWAT values near 0.6 to 0.75 inches with deep, well-mixed boundary layers conducive for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms from northwest NV into OR and adjacent areas of northern CA. Dry thunderstorms are also possible across parts of eastern UT and western CO, but recent rainfall appears to have mitigated fuel status based on recent fuel guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0584 Status Updates
040- STATUS REPORT ON WW 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E DUJ TO 35 NNW IPT TO 30 NNE BGM TO 40 NNE UCA TO 25 ENE MSS. ..LYONS..08/04/23 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX...PHI...BGM...BUF...BTV...OKX... CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 584 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-042040- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MEC031-042040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-025-027-042040- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA VT CW 041605Z - 050000Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Connecticut Much of Massachusetts Far southern Maine Central and southern New Hampshire Northwestern New Jersey Central and eastern New York Parts of central and eastern Pennsylvania Central and southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop across portions of Pennsylvania and New York and into New England early this afternoon, intensifying and evolving into clusters/bands of storms with time. Large hail up to golf ball size, and wind gusts locally exceeding 60 MPH are expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Lebanon NH to 35 miles southeast of State College PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Goss Read more

WW 584 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NJ NY PA VT CW 041605Z - 050000Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 584 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwestern Connecticut Much of Massachusetts Far southern Maine Central and southern New Hampshire Northwestern New Jersey Central and eastern New York Parts of central and eastern Pennsylvania Central and southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop across portions of Pennsylvania and New York and into New England early this afternoon, intensifying and evolving into clusters/bands of storms with time. Large hail up to golf ball size, and wind gusts locally exceeding 60 MPH are expected with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Lebanon NH to 35 miles southeast of State College PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Goss Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central Plains to the Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valley vicinity on Saturday. Damaging gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail (some 2+ inches) will be the primary severe weather hazards. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low currently within the northern Plains is expected to become more of an open wave and move southward/southeastward on Saturday. Mid/upper-level winds will increase through the period within the central High Plains eastward into the Missouri Valley as a result. Farther east, an MCV is forecast to track into the mid-Mississippi/lower Ohio Valley vicinity. At the surface, a remnant stationary boundary, perhaps reinforced by warm-advection precipitation, will remain from Missouri into the southern Plains. To the north, a surface low will deepen in South Dakota and eventually move into the Midwest along with its parent shortwave trough. This will act to push a cold front into the central Plains by Sunday morning. A secondary surface low is also forecast to develop in the southern High Plains. ...Central High Plains into Kansas... Upslope flow into the terrain is expected to be maintained ahead of the cold front which should approach by late afternoon. Upper 50s F to low 60s F dewpoints should be sufficient for a cluster or two of storms to develop within the terrain and spread eastward into eastern Colorado and western Kansas. There continues to be some uncertainty as to potential convection within southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma overnight Friday into Saturday morning. Weak warm advection is still predicted by most guidance even into the afternoon. What impact this activity will have on the forecast does remain unclear. Even so, moderate to strong buoyancy is expected within eastern Colorado and south of areas impacted by early precipitation. Winds at mid/upper levels will be increasing into early evening. Hodographs will consequently become more favorable for supercells and large/very-large hail. It is not clear how quickly upscale growth will occur, but an increase in 850 mb flow from the south across West Texas will likely promote increasing storm coverage during the evening. Strong/severe wind gusts will also be possible with supercells, including gusts in excess of 75 mph. The spatial extent of significant gust potential will be conditional on degree and timing of upscale growth. Damaging wind potential will persist into the evening in some fashion across Kansas into perhaps western Missouri. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Near the surface low, storm development appears likely from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska. Shear will decrease with northern extent, as will buoyancy, with the mid-level jet being generally near the Nebraska/Kansas border. However, some supercell structures appear possible that will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. A narrow corridor of backed surface winds near the low could support a risk for a tornado as well, but hodographs at mid/upper-levels do not appear favorable for sustained/strong mesocyclones. ...Lower Ohio Valley Vicinity... An MCV now in the Mid-Missouri Valley region is expected to progress into Illinois by early Saturday morning. Cloud cover and precipitation with this feature will mean some uncertainty in the magnitude and location of severe risk during the afternoon. The degree of surface heating will be the key and not all models suggest it will occur. However, there appears to be a conditionally favorable environment for marginal supercell structures capable of isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. ..Wendt.. 08/04/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 4 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located over a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the coast of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 250 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have become better organized over the past several hours.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or
so as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward, parallel to but
not far offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests
along the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern portion of
the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this
system during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Much of Northwest Montana will be under Stage 2 fire restrictions starting on Saturday, Aug. 5. The affected federal, state and private jurisdictions in stage 2 restrictions were Flathead National Forest, including Hungry Horse, Glacier View; Swan Lake, Spotted Bear and Tally Ranger Districts to include the Great Bear Wilderness, Mission Mountain Wilderness, and the Flathead National Forest portion of the Bob Marshall Wilderness; Kootenai National Forest, including Rexford, Fortine, Three Rivers, Libby and Cabinet Ranger Districts; Glacier National Park; US Fish & Wildlife Service; Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, including Kalispell, Libby, Stillwater, Swan and Plains Units; Montana Fish, Wildlife, and Parks, Region 1 within Flathead County, Lake County, Lincoln County, Sanders County; Flathead County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Lake County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Lincoln County – Stage 2 fire restrictions; Sanders County– Stage 2 fire restrictions; Green Diamond was not allowing campfires on their lands; Flathead Ridge Ranch prohibited campfires on their lands; Southern Pine Plantation of Montana was not allowing campfires; Stimson Private Timber Company was not allowing campfires on their lands; and Stoltze Timber Company was not allowing campfires on their lands. On Aug. 7, Stoltze will close their land to public access of any kind. KPAX (Missoula, Mont.), Aug 3, 2023

St. Landry Parish authorities issued a burn ban in the parish effective immediately with the aim of reducing the number of grass fires occurring. The ban will remain in effect until further notice. KLFY News 10 (Lafayette, La.), Aug 4, 2023

MD 1823 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Areas affected...Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 032149Z - 032345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for sporadic severe/damaging winds and large hail across lower Michigan through the evening hours. Given the limited nature of the threat, watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...A broken line of cells moving onshore across northwest Lower MI have demonstrated transient signs of organization over the past hour per KGRR and KAPX imagery. This activity, including a cell along the eastern WI shore, has produced near-severe wind/hail over the past couple of hours, including a 57 mph wind gust and 0.75 inch hail. The regional thermodynamic and kinematic environment appear adequate for convective maintenance with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk wind difference values approaching 30 knots. The somewhat disorganized/clustered nature of the convection and modest deep-layer shear will modulate the overall severe threat to some degree, but sporadic severe hail and damaging winds appear possible over the next few hours as these storms spread southeast across Lower MI. ..Moore/Mosier.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 44038642 45028578 44878500 44458410 44038312 43678269 42858248 42348307 42208371 42518489 42948569 43178614 43398642 43688652 44038642 Read more

WW 0582 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 582 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...CYS...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 582 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-011-017-025-039-061-063-073-075-087-089-095-099-115- 121-123-125-032240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT KIOWA KIT CARSON LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN OTERO PHILLIPS PROWERS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD YUMA NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-032240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX WYC015-021-032240- Read more

WW 582 SEVERE TSTM CO NE WY 032100Z - 040300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM MDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado The Nebraska Panhandle Extreme southeast Wyoming * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon/evening from the Front Range eastward into the Plains. The initial storms will be a mix of supercells and multicell clusters capable of producing isolated large hail up to 2 inches in diameter. Through the evening, storm mergers should lead to upscale growth and an increase in the threat for severe outflow gusts up to 75 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Alliance NE to 30 miles southwest of Lamar CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 581... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0581 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NW CBM TO 25 ENE TCL TO 25 E ANB TO 15 NW ATL TO 35 WSW AHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1822 ..LYONS..08/03/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 581 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-017-021-027-037-051-063-065-081-087-105-107-111-113- 117-121-123-125-032240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB CHAMBERS CHILTON CLAY COOSA ELMORE GREENE HALE LEE MACON PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH RUSSELL SHELBY TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA GAC009-021-035-045-053-063-077-079-089-097-113-121-125-133-141- 145-149-151-153-159-163-169-171-193-197-199-207-211-215-217-219- 221-225-231-237-247-249-255-263-265-269-285-289-293-297-301-303- 317-319-032240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 031905Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Alabama Northwest Georgia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is expected to persist through the afternoon while moving southeastward, with the potential to produce occasional wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Tuscaloosa AL to 20 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

WW 581 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 031905Z - 040100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 581 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Thu Aug 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Alabama Northwest Georgia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms is expected to persist through the afternoon while moving southeastward, with the potential to produce occasional wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west of Tuscaloosa AL to 20 miles east northeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31025. ...Thompson Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into Northwest... Monsoonal moisture will linger over the northern Great Basin and Northwest on Day 3/Saturday. While the area will generally be beneath a midlevel trough and becoming displaced from the associated large-scale ascent, sufficient instability and modest forcing along/east of the Cascades should still support isolated high-based thunderstorms over central/eastern OR into northeast CA and northwest NV. If thunderstorms can form over this area, 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions. ...Central Texas into southwest Oklahoma... A continuation of 100 deg temperatures, 10-15 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts), and 20 percent RH, will support elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions on Day 3/Saturday -- exacerbated by critically dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Therefore, 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this risk. For Day 4/Sunday, a cold front and related northerly wind shift is expected over southern OK into north-central TX, which could impact any ongoing fires. While confidence in the development of 15 mph sustained surface winds is too low for Critical probabilities at this time, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed. For next week, a continuation of elevated fire-weather conditions is possible, though possible precipitation and the frontal passage casts uncertainty on the overall threat. ...Southwest... A warming/drying trend is expected during the extended forecast period across parts of the Southwest, as a large-scale ridge builds over southwest NM/southeast AZ. At the same time, a belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow will overspread the area along the northern periphery of the ridge. As a result, breezy surface winds and low RH should yield elevated to critical fire-weather conditions as fuels continue to dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday over northwest NM into northeast AZ -- where rainfall accumulations have been limited and confidence in the overlap of dry/breezy conditions is highest. Additional probabilities could eventually be needed depending on fuel trends during the next couple of days. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northern Great Basin into Northwest... Monsoonal moisture will linger over the northern Great Basin and Northwest on Day 3/Saturday. While the area will generally be beneath a midlevel trough and becoming displaced from the associated large-scale ascent, sufficient instability and modest forcing along/east of the Cascades should still support isolated high-based thunderstorms over central/eastern OR into northeast CA and northwest NV. If thunderstorms can form over this area, 0.5-0.7 inch PW and inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor a mix of dry/wet thunderstorms capable of lightning-induced ignitions. ...Central Texas into southwest Oklahoma... A continuation of 100 deg temperatures, 10-15 mph sustained southerly winds (with higher gusts), and 20 percent RH, will support elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions on Day 3/Saturday -- exacerbated by critically dry fuels (97th percentile ERCs). Therefore, 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place for this risk. For Day 4/Sunday, a cold front and related northerly wind shift is expected over southern OK into north-central TX, which could impact any ongoing fires. While confidence in the development of 15 mph sustained surface winds is too low for Critical probabilities at this time, Elevated highlights could eventually be needed. For next week, a continuation of elevated fire-weather conditions is possible, though possible precipitation and the frontal passage casts uncertainty on the overall threat. ...Southwest... A warming/drying trend is expected during the extended forecast period across parts of the Southwest, as a large-scale ridge builds over southwest NM/southeast AZ. At the same time, a belt of moderate westerly midlevel flow will overspread the area along the northern periphery of the ridge. As a result, breezy surface winds and low RH should yield elevated to critical fire-weather conditions as fuels continue to dry. 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday over northwest NM into northeast AZ -- where rainfall accumulations have been limited and confidence in the overlap of dry/breezy conditions is highest. Additional probabilities could eventually be needed depending on fuel trends during the next couple of days. ..Weinman.. 08/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Aug 2023 20:40:11 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Aug 2023 21:23:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 032038 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 03 2023 Microwave satellite data received between 12-14Z suggests that Dora has been undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. In addition, the eye has been becoming more distinct during the past hour or two, although it is not much larger than the pinhole eye seen last night. Based on the satellite intensity estimates and the apparent eyewall replacement, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt. The initial motion remains 265/16 kt. As mentioned before, a well-established low- to mid-level ridge north of Dora is expected to maintain this general motion for the next several days. The track guidance, while tightly clustered, has shifted a little to the south from the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also nudged southward. The new forecast track is close to the various consensus models. The latest shear estimates and forecasts suggest the expected increase in easterly shear has not yet occurred. Based on this, there is probably a 6-12 h window for Dora to re-intensify as the eyewall replacement cycle ends, and the new intensity forecast shows modest intensification during that time. After 12 h, increased shear and slowly decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause weakening through 48 h. After 48 h, the shear is forecast to decrease while Dora is over water temperatures of 26-27C. The intensity guidance during this time shows a more gradual weakening than during the 12-48 h period, and this part of the intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance. While the wind field of Dora may expand slightly due to the eyewall replacement, it is expected to remain a compact system that could be more prone than normal to rapid intensity fluctuations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 14.4N 121.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 14.1N 124.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 13.8N 127.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 13.5N 130.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 13.0N 136.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 12.8N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 12.5N 148.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 12.5N 155.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven