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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, preceded by strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing mid/high-level clouds crossing the southern Rockies. This will promote breezy/gusty southerly return flow over portions of the southern and central Plains. However, the increasing cloud coverage and low-level moisture advection (albeit weak) should limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist conditions should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday into early Thursday over much of southern and eastern Texas, and far southeast Oklahoma. Isolated thunderstorms also are possible over parts of Arizona and New Mexico, as well as near or just offshore from the central California coast. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Discussion... A shortwave trough along the Pacific Coast will shift east toward the Four Corners and northern Mexico on Wednesday. Ensuing height falls across the southern High Plains vicinity will foster increasing southerly low-level flow across TX. Strong theta-e advection from near the surface through around 700 mb will support increasing destabilization during the second half of the period. Shear profiles will conditionally favor supercells overnight across the TX coastal vicinity. However, most instability will remain elevated from near the top of the moist layer between 850-700 mb through 400 mb, while strong low-level inhibition prevails. This will allow for isolated thunderstorms, but surface-based convection is unlikely. Given a lack of stronger large-scale ascent and weak low-level convergence, coupled with low-level inhibition, severe potential appears low late Wednesday into early Thursday. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing large-scale trough over the Northeast, strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast. At the same time, surface high pressure will shift east-southeastward from the Great Plains into the central Gulf Coast. Along the eastern periphery of the surface high, an enhanced pressure gradient will support 10-15 mph northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), while shallow boundary-layer mixing into dry air aloft favors 25-35 percent minimum RH across portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for these areas, recent rainfall and generally cool surface temperatures should limit the overall threat. Farther west, strong northwesterly flow aloft will cross the northern Rockies, yielding dry/breezy downslope flow into the northern High Plains. A lack of appreciable precipitation over this area suggests that fuels are at least modestly receptive, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Similar to the Southeast, cool surface temperatures should mitigate the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing large-scale trough over the Northeast, strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast. At the same time, surface high pressure will shift east-southeastward from the Great Plains into the central Gulf Coast. Along the eastern periphery of the surface high, an enhanced pressure gradient will support 10-15 mph northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), while shallow boundary-layer mixing into dry air aloft favors 25-35 percent minimum RH across portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for these areas, recent rainfall and generally cool surface temperatures should limit the overall threat. Farther west, strong northwesterly flow aloft will cross the northern Rockies, yielding dry/breezy downslope flow into the northern High Plains. A lack of appreciable precipitation over this area suggests that fuels are at least modestly receptive, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Similar to the Southeast, cool surface temperatures should mitigate the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing large-scale trough over the Northeast, strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast. At the same time, surface high pressure will shift east-southeastward from the Great Plains into the central Gulf Coast. Along the eastern periphery of the surface high, an enhanced pressure gradient will support 10-15 mph northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), while shallow boundary-layer mixing into dry air aloft favors 25-35 percent minimum RH across portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for these areas, recent rainfall and generally cool surface temperatures should limit the overall threat. Farther west, strong northwesterly flow aloft will cross the northern Rockies, yielding dry/breezy downslope flow into the northern High Plains. A lack of appreciable precipitation over this area suggests that fuels are at least modestly receptive, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Similar to the Southeast, cool surface temperatures should mitigate the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing large-scale trough over the Northeast, strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast. At the same time, surface high pressure will shift east-southeastward from the Great Plains into the central Gulf Coast. Along the eastern periphery of the surface high, an enhanced pressure gradient will support 10-15 mph northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), while shallow boundary-layer mixing into dry air aloft favors 25-35 percent minimum RH across portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for these areas, recent rainfall and generally cool surface temperatures should limit the overall threat. Farther west, strong northwesterly flow aloft will cross the northern Rockies, yielding dry/breezy downslope flow into the northern High Plains. A lack of appreciable precipitation over this area suggests that fuels are at least modestly receptive, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Similar to the Southeast, cool surface temperatures should mitigate the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a departing large-scale trough over the Northeast, strong deep-layer west-northwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast. At the same time, surface high pressure will shift east-southeastward from the Great Plains into the central Gulf Coast. Along the eastern periphery of the surface high, an enhanced pressure gradient will support 10-15 mph northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts), while shallow boundary-layer mixing into dry air aloft favors 25-35 percent minimum RH across portions of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible for these areas, recent rainfall and generally cool surface temperatures should limit the overall threat. Farther west, strong northwesterly flow aloft will cross the northern Rockies, yielding dry/breezy downslope flow into the northern High Plains. A lack of appreciable precipitation over this area suggests that fuels are at least modestly receptive, and locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. Similar to the Southeast, cool surface temperatures should mitigate the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes... In proximity to the mid-level cold core (-40C at 500 mb) centered over eastern Ontario and Quebec, steep lapse rates persist with lake-induced CAPE and lake effect snow in the lee of the Great Lakes. This low-topped convection may be still conducive to a few lightning flashes through the morning/early afternoon, particularly in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...California coast... A southern-stream trough will approach the California coast late tonight and early Wednesday. Given the expected weakening nature of the approaching surface cyclone, and its offshore forecast track, the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization inland of northern/central coastal areas appears quite low. While mid-level cooling ahead of the modest mid-level cold core (500 mb temperatures around -22 to -24C) may contribute to convection capable of lightning offshore, lightning production with the convection should tend to wane as it approaches central California coastal areas late tonight into early Wednesday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes... In proximity to the mid-level cold core (-40C at 500 mb) centered over eastern Ontario and Quebec, steep lapse rates persist with lake-induced CAPE and lake effect snow in the lee of the Great Lakes. This low-topped convection may be still conducive to a few lightning flashes through the morning/early afternoon, particularly in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...California coast... A southern-stream trough will approach the California coast late tonight and early Wednesday. Given the expected weakening nature of the approaching surface cyclone, and its offshore forecast track, the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization inland of northern/central coastal areas appears quite low. While mid-level cooling ahead of the modest mid-level cold core (500 mb temperatures around -22 to -24C) may contribute to convection capable of lightning offshore, lightning production with the convection should tend to wane as it approaches central California coastal areas late tonight into early Wednesday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes... In proximity to the mid-level cold core (-40C at 500 mb) centered over eastern Ontario and Quebec, steep lapse rates persist with lake-induced CAPE and lake effect snow in the lee of the Great Lakes. This low-topped convection may be still conducive to a few lightning flashes through the morning/early afternoon, particularly in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...California coast... A southern-stream trough will approach the California coast late tonight and early Wednesday. Given the expected weakening nature of the approaching surface cyclone, and its offshore forecast track, the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization inland of northern/central coastal areas appears quite low. While mid-level cooling ahead of the modest mid-level cold core (500 mb temperatures around -22 to -24C) may contribute to convection capable of lightning offshore, lightning production with the convection should tend to wane as it approaches central California coastal areas late tonight into early Wednesday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/28/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes... In proximity to the mid-level cold core (-40C at 500 mb) centered over eastern Ontario and Quebec, steep lapse rates persist with lake-induced CAPE and lake effect snow in the lee of the Great Lakes. This low-topped convection may be still conducive to a few lightning flashes through the morning/early afternoon, particularly in the lee of Lake Ontario. ...California coast... A southern-stream trough will approach the California coast late tonight and early Wednesday. Given the expected weakening nature of the approaching surface cyclone, and its offshore forecast track, the potential for appreciable boundary-layer destabilization inland of northern/central coastal areas appears quite low. While mid-level cooling ahead of the modest mid-level cold core (500 mb temperatures around -22 to -24C) may contribute to convection capable of lightning offshore, lightning production with the convection should tend to wane as it approaches central California coastal areas late tonight into early Wednesday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/28/2023 Read more