SPC Nov 29, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible by this evening across parts of the Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies, and across parts of the southern Great Plains overnight. The risk for severe storms still appears negligible until after daybreak Thursday. ...Synopsis... While an initially deep and elongated mid-level low over Hudson Bay may become more axisymmetric and deepen further through this period, troughing to its southeast is forecast to continue to pivot away and northeast of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, mid-level flow appears likely trend more zonal across and east of the Mississippi Valley, but cool to cold, dry and stable conditions across much of the East will be slow to modify. The center of the cold surface ridging is forecast to begin redeveloping across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, leading to a strengthening southerly return flow from the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be enhanced by deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, as a short wave trough (within a branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific) digs inland of the central/southern California coast, through the Southwest by 12Z Thursday. While the mid-level cold core is forecast to pivot inland of the California coast during the day, low-level moistening and any potential destabilization will remain confined to areas near and offshore of southern California into northern Baja California coastal areas. However, farther inland, across parts of the Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies, low-level warming and steepening lapse rates aided by daytime heating, may contribute to destabilization. As stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling overspreads this region, in the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico, scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours. Farther downstream, models indicate that rapid low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible, particularly tonight as a southerly low-level jet (30-40+ kt around 850 mb) strengthens across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the southern Great Plains. North and inland of the lower Texas coast, associated destabilization will likely be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer. Across the Hill Country into northwest Texas, most unstable CAPE might increase to 500-1000 J/kg by late tonight, beneath a generally capping plume of elevated mixed-layer air. On the leading edge and northeast/east of this plume, lift associated with warm advection may support increasing thunderstorm development toward daybreak Thursday. However, weaker and weakening lapse rates within this elevated convective regime seems likely to minimize the risk for severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 29, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible by this evening across parts of the Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies, and across parts of the southern Great Plains overnight. The risk for severe storms still appears negligible until after daybreak Thursday. ...Synopsis... While an initially deep and elongated mid-level low over Hudson Bay may become more axisymmetric and deepen further through this period, troughing to its southeast is forecast to continue to pivot away and northeast of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, mid-level flow appears likely trend more zonal across and east of the Mississippi Valley, but cool to cold, dry and stable conditions across much of the East will be slow to modify. The center of the cold surface ridging is forecast to begin redeveloping across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, leading to a strengthening southerly return flow from the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be enhanced by deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, as a short wave trough (within a branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific) digs inland of the central/southern California coast, through the Southwest by 12Z Thursday. While the mid-level cold core is forecast to pivot inland of the California coast during the day, low-level moistening and any potential destabilization will remain confined to areas near and offshore of southern California into northern Baja California coastal areas. However, farther inland, across parts of the Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies, low-level warming and steepening lapse rates aided by daytime heating, may contribute to destabilization. As stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling overspreads this region, in the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico, scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours. Farther downstream, models indicate that rapid low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible, particularly tonight as a southerly low-level jet (30-40+ kt around 850 mb) strengthens across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the southern Great Plains. North and inland of the lower Texas coast, associated destabilization will likely be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer. Across the Hill Country into northwest Texas, most unstable CAPE might increase to 500-1000 J/kg by late tonight, beneath a generally capping plume of elevated mixed-layer air. On the leading edge and northeast/east of this plume, lift associated with warm advection may support increasing thunderstorm development toward daybreak Thursday. However, weaker and weakening lapse rates within this elevated convective regime seems likely to minimize the risk for severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 29, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible by this evening across parts of the Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies, and across parts of the southern Great Plains overnight. The risk for severe storms still appears negligible until after daybreak Thursday. ...Synopsis... While an initially deep and elongated mid-level low over Hudson Bay may become more axisymmetric and deepen further through this period, troughing to its southeast is forecast to continue to pivot away and northeast of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, mid-level flow appears likely trend more zonal across and east of the Mississippi Valley, but cool to cold, dry and stable conditions across much of the East will be slow to modify. The center of the cold surface ridging is forecast to begin redeveloping across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, leading to a strengthening southerly return flow from the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be enhanced by deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, as a short wave trough (within a branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific) digs inland of the central/southern California coast, through the Southwest by 12Z Thursday. While the mid-level cold core is forecast to pivot inland of the California coast during the day, low-level moistening and any potential destabilization will remain confined to areas near and offshore of southern California into northern Baja California coastal areas. However, farther inland, across parts of the Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies, low-level warming and steepening lapse rates aided by daytime heating, may contribute to destabilization. As stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling overspreads this region, in the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico, scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours. Farther downstream, models indicate that rapid low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible, particularly tonight as a southerly low-level jet (30-40+ kt around 850 mb) strengthens across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the southern Great Plains. North and inland of the lower Texas coast, associated destabilization will likely be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer. Across the Hill Country into northwest Texas, most unstable CAPE might increase to 500-1000 J/kg by late tonight, beneath a generally capping plume of elevated mixed-layer air. On the leading edge and northeast/east of this plume, lift associated with warm advection may support increasing thunderstorm development toward daybreak Thursday. However, weaker and weakening lapse rates within this elevated convective regime seems likely to minimize the risk for severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 29, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible by this evening across parts of the Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies, and across parts of the southern Great Plains overnight. The risk for severe storms still appears negligible until after daybreak Thursday. ...Synopsis... While an initially deep and elongated mid-level low over Hudson Bay may become more axisymmetric and deepen further through this period, troughing to its southeast is forecast to continue to pivot away and northeast of the Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, mid-level flow appears likely trend more zonal across and east of the Mississippi Valley, but cool to cold, dry and stable conditions across much of the East will be slow to modify. The center of the cold surface ridging is forecast to begin redeveloping across and offshore of the southern Atlantic coast, leading to a strengthening southerly return flow from the western Gulf of Mexico into southern Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be enhanced by deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, as a short wave trough (within a branch of westerlies emanating from the southern mid-latitude Pacific) digs inland of the central/southern California coast, through the Southwest by 12Z Thursday. While the mid-level cold core is forecast to pivot inland of the California coast during the day, low-level moistening and any potential destabilization will remain confined to areas near and offshore of southern California into northern Baja California coastal areas. However, farther inland, across parts of the Colorado Plateau into the southern Rockies, low-level warming and steepening lapse rates aided by daytime heating, may contribute to destabilization. As stronger forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling overspreads this region, in the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico, scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours. Farther downstream, models indicate that rapid low-level moisture return from the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible, particularly tonight as a southerly low-level jet (30-40+ kt around 850 mb) strengthens across the lower Rio Grande Valley into the southern Great Plains. North and inland of the lower Texas coast, associated destabilization will likely be rooted above at least a shallow stable surface-based layer. Across the Hill Country into northwest Texas, most unstable CAPE might increase to 500-1000 J/kg by late tonight, beneath a generally capping plume of elevated mixed-layer air. On the leading edge and northeast/east of this plume, lift associated with warm advection may support increasing thunderstorm development toward daybreak Thursday. However, weaker and weakening lapse rates within this elevated convective regime seems likely to minimize the risk for severe hail. ..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 29, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Some lightning was noted earlier today with convection beneath the cold core of a weakening mid-level low, which is now a couple hundred miles west-southwest of the northern California coast. The remnant mid-level circulation may shift into coastal areas near Eureka by late tonight, but the associated weakening, occluded surface low and front are forecast to remain offshore of the California coast. Stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of a digging jet streak (to the west of the mid-level trough axis), may approach coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay overnight, possibly supporting a developing band of frontal convection with some lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 29, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Some lightning was noted earlier today with convection beneath the cold core of a weakening mid-level low, which is now a couple hundred miles west-southwest of the northern California coast. The remnant mid-level circulation may shift into coastal areas near Eureka by late tonight, but the associated weakening, occluded surface low and front are forecast to remain offshore of the California coast. Stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of a digging jet streak (to the west of the mid-level trough axis), may approach coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay overnight, possibly supporting a developing band of frontal convection with some lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Nov 29, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. through tonight. ...01Z Update... Some lightning was noted earlier today with convection beneath the cold core of a weakening mid-level low, which is now a couple hundred miles west-southwest of the northern California coast. The remnant mid-level circulation may shift into coastal areas near Eureka by late tonight, but the associated weakening, occluded surface low and front are forecast to remain offshore of the California coast. Stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of a digging jet streak (to the west of the mid-level trough axis), may approach coastal areas south of San Francisco Bay overnight, possibly supporting a developing band of frontal convection with some lightning. ..Kerr.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through the extended period, with a series of mid-level troughs traversing the U.S. and corresponding surface lee troughs/surface cyclones developing over the central Plains. While cool or moist surface conditions will limit wildfire-spread potential over most locales, prolonged dry and breezy conditions are expected across the central and southern High Plains most days. At the moment, the main reasons for not adding Critical probabilities this outlook are 1) uncertainty in fuel receptiveness, and 2) strength of the larger-scale surface wind field. Widespread, appreciable precipitation accumulations may not occur across the central/southern High Plains into early next week, suggesting that some continued drying of fuels should take place. If guidance agreement in overlapping Elevated conditions can persist over the next few days, lower-end Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through the extended period, with a series of mid-level troughs traversing the U.S. and corresponding surface lee troughs/surface cyclones developing over the central Plains. While cool or moist surface conditions will limit wildfire-spread potential over most locales, prolonged dry and breezy conditions are expected across the central and southern High Plains most days. At the moment, the main reasons for not adding Critical probabilities this outlook are 1) uncertainty in fuel receptiveness, and 2) strength of the larger-scale surface wind field. Widespread, appreciable precipitation accumulations may not occur across the central/southern High Plains into early next week, suggesting that some continued drying of fuels should take place. If guidance agreement in overlapping Elevated conditions can persist over the next few days, lower-end Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through the extended period, with a series of mid-level troughs traversing the U.S. and corresponding surface lee troughs/surface cyclones developing over the central Plains. While cool or moist surface conditions will limit wildfire-spread potential over most locales, prolonged dry and breezy conditions are expected across the central and southern High Plains most days. At the moment, the main reasons for not adding Critical probabilities this outlook are 1) uncertainty in fuel receptiveness, and 2) strength of the larger-scale surface wind field. Widespread, appreciable precipitation accumulations may not occur across the central/southern High Plains into early next week, suggesting that some continued drying of fuels should take place. If guidance agreement in overlapping Elevated conditions can persist over the next few days, lower-end Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z A progressive upper-air pattern is expected through the extended period, with a series of mid-level troughs traversing the U.S. and corresponding surface lee troughs/surface cyclones developing over the central Plains. While cool or moist surface conditions will limit wildfire-spread potential over most locales, prolonged dry and breezy conditions are expected across the central and southern High Plains most days. At the moment, the main reasons for not adding Critical probabilities this outlook are 1) uncertainty in fuel receptiveness, and 2) strength of the larger-scale surface wind field. Widespread, appreciable precipitation accumulations may not occur across the central/southern High Plains into early next week, suggesting that some continued drying of fuels should take place. If guidance agreement in overlapping Elevated conditions can persist over the next few days, lower-end Critical probabilities may be introduced in future outlooks. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Nov 28, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from the central/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. Read more

SPC Nov 28, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from the central/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. Read more

SPC Nov 28, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from the central/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. Read more

SPC Nov 28, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. A few lightning flashes are still expected through early Wednesday along and offshore from the central/northern CA coast. ..Leitman.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough is moving over the Lower Great Lakes now, and subtle veering of flow this afternoon will result in shorter over-lake fetches and reduced depth/organization to the lake effect snow bands. Given the marginal thermodynamic profiles for charge separation, the threat for isolated lightning flashes is expected to diminish through the afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel low will move slowly eastward toward the central/northern CA coast by early Wednesday. There may be sufficient cooling/moistening of profiles for weak buoyancy and isolated lightning flashes near the end of the period along the coast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, preceded by strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing mid/high-level clouds crossing the southern Rockies. This will promote breezy/gusty southerly return flow over portions of the southern and central Plains. However, the increasing cloud coverage and low-level moisture advection (albeit weak) should limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist conditions should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, preceded by strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing mid/high-level clouds crossing the southern Rockies. This will promote breezy/gusty southerly return flow over portions of the southern and central Plains. However, the increasing cloud coverage and low-level moisture advection (albeit weak) should limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist conditions should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/28/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Southwest, preceded by strengthening southwesterly flow and increasing mid/high-level clouds crossing the southern Rockies. This will promote breezy/gusty southerly return flow over portions of the southern and central Plains. However, the increasing cloud coverage and low-level moisture advection (albeit weak) should limit RH reductions where the breezy winds are expected. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and/or moist conditions should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more