SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ..Wendt.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level ridge will continue to shift eastward into the Missouri/Mississippi Valley regions on Wednesday. A trough will begin to develop into the West once again, but will be relatively ill-defined initially. At the surface, a combination of a modestly intensifying surface high in the Southeast and broad surface low pressure in the northern Rockies southward into the High Plains will increase the pressure gradient within parts of the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds are possible from the southern High Plains into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest. Temperatures should remain rather cool farther north and keep RH elevated. Warmer temperatures are expected farther south and within areas of stronger downslope winds. Pockets of locally elevated fire weather are possible in the southern High Plains and perhaps parts of southeast Wyoming should sufficiently dry fine fuels exist. ..Wendt.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the Divide today. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Plains as it moves southeastward with time. Surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin into the Western Slope. Fire weather concerns throughout the CONUS should remain low given generally unreceptive fuels and light winds. Some stronger offshore winds are likely in southern California. These winds will peak this morning before weakening through the day. Though fuels are not overly receptive and the lowest RH will not phase well with the strongest winds, locally elevated conditions would be possible where pockets of dry fuels exits within the terrain. ..Wendt.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the Divide today. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Plains as it moves southeastward with time. Surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin into the Western Slope. Fire weather concerns throughout the CONUS should remain low given generally unreceptive fuels and light winds. Some stronger offshore winds are likely in southern California. These winds will peak this morning before weakening through the day. Though fuels are not overly receptive and the lowest RH will not phase well with the strongest winds, locally elevated conditions would be possible where pockets of dry fuels exits within the terrain. ..Wendt.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the Divide today. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Plains as it moves southeastward with time. Surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin into the Western Slope. Fire weather concerns throughout the CONUS should remain low given generally unreceptive fuels and light winds. Some stronger offshore winds are likely in southern California. These winds will peak this morning before weakening through the day. Though fuels are not overly receptive and the lowest RH will not phase well with the strongest winds, locally elevated conditions would be possible where pockets of dry fuels exits within the terrain. ..Wendt.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will shift eastward over the Divide today. At the surface, high pressure will strengthen in the Plains as it moves southeastward with time. Surface high pressure will also remain within the Great Basin into the Western Slope. Fire weather concerns throughout the CONUS should remain low given generally unreceptive fuels and light winds. Some stronger offshore winds are likely in southern California. These winds will peak this morning before weakening through the day. Though fuels are not overly receptive and the lowest RH will not phase well with the strongest winds, locally elevated conditions would be possible where pockets of dry fuels exits within the terrain. ..Wendt.. 12/05/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Dec 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern will prove unfavorable for thunderstorms today across the CONUS. Offshore flow will prevail across most of the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts and any appreciable buoyancy has been shunted well south and east of the United States. Across the western US, warm conveyor will gradually sag south along the west Coast, but the primary upper trough will hold well offshore. Weak instability may be noted within the conveyor, but primarily west of -125 longitude. Even within this corridor, elevated convection should remain too shallow/weak to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern will prove unfavorable for thunderstorms today across the CONUS. Offshore flow will prevail across most of the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts and any appreciable buoyancy has been shunted well south and east of the United States. Across the western US, warm conveyor will gradually sag south along the west Coast, but the primary upper trough will hold well offshore. Weak instability may be noted within the conveyor, but primarily west of -125 longitude. Even within this corridor, elevated convection should remain too shallow/weak to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern will prove unfavorable for thunderstorms today across the CONUS. Offshore flow will prevail across most of the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts and any appreciable buoyancy has been shunted well south and east of the United States. Across the western US, warm conveyor will gradually sag south along the west Coast, but the primary upper trough will hold well offshore. Weak instability may be noted within the conveyor, but primarily west of -125 longitude. Even within this corridor, elevated convection should remain too shallow/weak to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 5, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern will prove unfavorable for thunderstorms today across the CONUS. Offshore flow will prevail across most of the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts and any appreciable buoyancy has been shunted well south and east of the United States. Across the western US, warm conveyor will gradually sag south along the west Coast, but the primary upper trough will hold well offshore. Weak instability may be noted within the conveyor, but primarily west of -125 longitude. Even within this corridor, elevated convection should remain too shallow/weak to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 5, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Midlevel speed max is translating quickly off the middle Atlantic Coast early this evening. Large-scale ascent and associated buoyancy have progressed well offshore and thunderstorms are no longer forecast over the southern Appalachians. Upstream across the Pacific Northwest, poor lapse rates within the warm conveyor do not appear favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning within the deepest updrafts. For this reason have lowered thunder probabilities to less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 5, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Midlevel speed max is translating quickly off the middle Atlantic Coast early this evening. Large-scale ascent and associated buoyancy have progressed well offshore and thunderstorms are no longer forecast over the southern Appalachians. Upstream across the Pacific Northwest, poor lapse rates within the warm conveyor do not appear favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning within the deepest updrafts. For this reason have lowered thunder probabilities to less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 5, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Midlevel speed max is translating quickly off the middle Atlantic Coast early this evening. Large-scale ascent and associated buoyancy have progressed well offshore and thunderstorms are no longer forecast over the southern Appalachians. Upstream across the Pacific Northwest, poor lapse rates within the warm conveyor do not appear favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning within the deepest updrafts. For this reason have lowered thunder probabilities to less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Dec 5, 2023 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Midlevel speed max is translating quickly off the middle Atlantic Coast early this evening. Large-scale ascent and associated buoyancy have progressed well offshore and thunderstorms are no longer forecast over the southern Appalachians. Upstream across the Pacific Northwest, poor lapse rates within the warm conveyor do not appear favorable for more than a rogue flash of lightning within the deepest updrafts. For this reason have lowered thunder probabilities to less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 12/05/2023 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Some increase in fire weather conditions is expected across the southern High Plains late this week and into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwaves traverse the Central Rockies and Southwest. This will lead to several days of lee troughing and strengthening winds and downslope flow in the region. The driest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday as the trough deepens and stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region. Freeze cured fine fuels will likely support some increase in initial attack, but ERC values near seasonal norm should mitigate a greater threat for large fire. Therefore, Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely and therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Some precipitation may fall in this region on Saturday which would limit fuel receptiveness, but where fuels remain dry, especially across Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, dry and breezy conditions will continue to dry fuels which may eventually lead to fire weather concerns in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Some increase in fire weather conditions is expected across the southern High Plains late this week and into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwaves traverse the Central Rockies and Southwest. This will lead to several days of lee troughing and strengthening winds and downslope flow in the region. The driest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday as the trough deepens and stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region. Freeze cured fine fuels will likely support some increase in initial attack, but ERC values near seasonal norm should mitigate a greater threat for large fire. Therefore, Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely and therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Some precipitation may fall in this region on Saturday which would limit fuel receptiveness, but where fuels remain dry, especially across Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, dry and breezy conditions will continue to dry fuels which may eventually lead to fire weather concerns in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Some increase in fire weather conditions is expected across the southern High Plains late this week and into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwaves traverse the Central Rockies and Southwest. This will lead to several days of lee troughing and strengthening winds and downslope flow in the region. The driest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday as the trough deepens and stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region. Freeze cured fine fuels will likely support some increase in initial attack, but ERC values near seasonal norm should mitigate a greater threat for large fire. Therefore, Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely and therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Some precipitation may fall in this region on Saturday which would limit fuel receptiveness, but where fuels remain dry, especially across Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, dry and breezy conditions will continue to dry fuels which may eventually lead to fire weather concerns in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 year 8 months ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0415 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2023 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Some increase in fire weather conditions is expected across the southern High Plains late this week and into the weekend as a series of mid-level shortwaves traverse the Central Rockies and Southwest. This will lead to several days of lee troughing and strengthening winds and downslope flow in the region. The driest and windiest conditions are likely on Friday as the trough deepens and stronger mid-level flow overspreads the region. Freeze cured fine fuels will likely support some increase in initial attack, but ERC values near seasonal norm should mitigate a greater threat for large fire. Therefore, Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but Critical fire weather conditions remain unlikely and therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. Some precipitation may fall in this region on Saturday which would limit fuel receptiveness, but where fuels remain dry, especially across Far West Texas and southern New Mexico, dry and breezy conditions will continue to dry fuels which may eventually lead to fire weather concerns in the region. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more