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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified synoptic pattern will continue through the period. A substantial trough -- now just inland from and nearly parallel to the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- will move seaward before 00Z. Cold frontal passages related to this system will render the airmass over and east of the Intermountain West too stable and/or dry for thunderstorms. Meanwhile, upstream ridging will shift eastward from the Rockies across the Great Plains. This will occur as a Pacific synoptic trough -- along with a series of accompanying shortwaves and vorticity maxima -- shift inland across the Pacific Coast States from central CA northward. The leading -- and currently strongest -- of the shortwave troughs was apparent in moisture-channel imagery near 135W between about 33N-45N, preceded (as common for such troughs) by a baroclinic-leaf formation on satellite imagery. An associated band of frontogenetic forcing accompanied by a precip band should reach the coastline today. As that occurs -- and especially afterward in cooling air aloft (-20 to -30 deg C) and steepening low/middle-level lapse rates accompanying the strongest DCVA -- some of the convection may extend into icing layers suitable for lightning production. Isolated thunderstorm potential appears most probable over portions of northern CA and western OR, as well as overnight in the Bitterroots vicinity with columnar cooling/moistening. In each area, around 50-100 J/kg MUCAPE will support the convection. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified synoptic pattern will continue through the period. A substantial trough -- now just inland from and nearly parallel to the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- will move seaward before 00Z. Cold frontal passages related to this system will render the airmass over and east of the Intermountain West too stable and/or dry for thunderstorms. Meanwhile, upstream ridging will shift eastward from the Rockies across the Great Plains. This will occur as a Pacific synoptic trough -- along with a series of accompanying shortwaves and vorticity maxima -- shift inland across the Pacific Coast States from central CA northward. The leading -- and currently strongest -- of the shortwave troughs was apparent in moisture-channel imagery near 135W between about 33N-45N, preceded (as common for such troughs) by a baroclinic-leaf formation on satellite imagery. An associated band of frontogenetic forcing accompanied by a precip band should reach the coastline today. As that occurs -- and especially afterward in cooling air aloft (-20 to -30 deg C) and steepening low/middle-level lapse rates accompanying the strongest DCVA -- some of the convection may extend into icing layers suitable for lightning production. Isolated thunderstorm potential appears most probable over portions of northern CA and western OR, as well as overnight in the Bitterroots vicinity with columnar cooling/moistening. In each area, around 50-100 J/kg MUCAPE will support the convection. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0614 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive and highly amplified synoptic pattern will continue through the period. A substantial trough -- now just inland from and nearly parallel to the U.S. Atlantic Coast -- will move seaward before 00Z. Cold frontal passages related to this system will render the airmass over and east of the Intermountain West too stable and/or dry for thunderstorms. Meanwhile, upstream ridging will shift eastward from the Rockies across the Great Plains. This will occur as a Pacific synoptic trough -- along with a series of accompanying shortwaves and vorticity maxima -- shift inland across the Pacific Coast States from central CA northward. The leading -- and currently strongest -- of the shortwave troughs was apparent in moisture-channel imagery near 135W between about 33N-45N, preceded (as common for such troughs) by a baroclinic-leaf formation on satellite imagery. An associated band of frontogenetic forcing accompanied by a precip band should reach the coastline today. As that occurs -- and especially afterward in cooling air aloft (-20 to -30 deg C) and steepening low/middle-level lapse rates accompanying the strongest DCVA -- some of the convection may extend into icing layers suitable for lightning production. Isolated thunderstorm potential appears most probable over portions of northern CA and western OR, as well as overnight in the Bitterroots vicinity with columnar cooling/moistening. In each area, around 50-100 J/kg MUCAPE will support the convection. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 12/06/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...East TX to the Lower OH Valley and Deep South... A moderately unstable air mass should become established during the day on D4/Sat from southeast TX to the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss ahead of a cold front pushing southeastward. With increasing mid-level height falls across the warm sector downstream of a highly amplified/positive-tilt upper trough over the central states, thunderstorm development will become widespread both along and ahead of the front by afternoon. Stronger low-level flow will be coincident with correspondingly weaker instability in the northeast portion of the warm sector. Low-level southwesterlies will be more moderate and subsiding with southwest extent where instability should be larger. As such, below-average confidence exists regarding the distribution of severe hazards, but signal remains sufficient to maintain a highlighted 15 percent area embedded within a broad low severe probability. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the areal delineation farther northeast in the Mid-South. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... Guidance has trended towards increased agreement with a highly amplified upper trough centered across much of the MS Valley at 12Z Sun to rapidly progress towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the D5 period. This will result in a deepening surface cyclone tracking roughly from the OH Valley to the St. Lawrence Valley. This type of evolution should result in very strong to extreme southerly low-level winds largely paralleling the meridional orientation of the surface cold front sweeping east. Unlike on D4 where the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble probabilities had less instability forecast with northern extent than the 00Z deterministic GFS and its GEFS probabilities, the opposite is progged for D5. Still, a thermodynamically limited warm sector is likely given weak mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy at most. But with conditional potential for this to overlap the strengthening low-level southerlies, low severe probabilities remain apparent over at least the central/eastern Carolinas to the Delmarva. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...East TX to the Lower OH Valley and Deep South... A moderately unstable air mass should become established during the day on D4/Sat from southeast TX to the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss ahead of a cold front pushing southeastward. With increasing mid-level height falls across the warm sector downstream of a highly amplified/positive-tilt upper trough over the central states, thunderstorm development will become widespread both along and ahead of the front by afternoon. Stronger low-level flow will be coincident with correspondingly weaker instability in the northeast portion of the warm sector. Low-level southwesterlies will be more moderate and subsiding with southwest extent where instability should be larger. As such, below-average confidence exists regarding the distribution of severe hazards, but signal remains sufficient to maintain a highlighted 15 percent area embedded within a broad low severe probability. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the areal delineation farther northeast in the Mid-South. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... Guidance has trended towards increased agreement with a highly amplified upper trough centered across much of the MS Valley at 12Z Sun to rapidly progress towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the D5 period. This will result in a deepening surface cyclone tracking roughly from the OH Valley to the St. Lawrence Valley. This type of evolution should result in very strong to extreme southerly low-level winds largely paralleling the meridional orientation of the surface cold front sweeping east. Unlike on D4 where the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble probabilities had less instability forecast with northern extent than the 00Z deterministic GFS and its GEFS probabilities, the opposite is progged for D5. Still, a thermodynamically limited warm sector is likely given weak mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy at most. But with conditional potential for this to overlap the strengthening low-level southerlies, low severe probabilities remain apparent over at least the central/eastern Carolinas to the Delmarva. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...East TX to the Lower OH Valley and Deep South... A moderately unstable air mass should become established during the day on D4/Sat from southeast TX to the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss ahead of a cold front pushing southeastward. With increasing mid-level height falls across the warm sector downstream of a highly amplified/positive-tilt upper trough over the central states, thunderstorm development will become widespread both along and ahead of the front by afternoon. Stronger low-level flow will be coincident with correspondingly weaker instability in the northeast portion of the warm sector. Low-level southwesterlies will be more moderate and subsiding with southwest extent where instability should be larger. As such, below-average confidence exists regarding the distribution of severe hazards, but signal remains sufficient to maintain a highlighted 15 percent area embedded within a broad low severe probability. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the areal delineation farther northeast in the Mid-South. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... Guidance has trended towards increased agreement with a highly amplified upper trough centered across much of the MS Valley at 12Z Sun to rapidly progress towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the D5 period. This will result in a deepening surface cyclone tracking roughly from the OH Valley to the St. Lawrence Valley. This type of evolution should result in very strong to extreme southerly low-level winds largely paralleling the meridional orientation of the surface cold front sweeping east. Unlike on D4 where the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble probabilities had less instability forecast with northern extent than the 00Z deterministic GFS and its GEFS probabilities, the opposite is progged for D5. Still, a thermodynamically limited warm sector is likely given weak mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy at most. But with conditional potential for this to overlap the strengthening low-level southerlies, low severe probabilities remain apparent over at least the central/eastern Carolinas to the Delmarva. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...East TX to the Lower OH Valley and Deep South... A moderately unstable air mass should become established during the day on D4/Sat from southeast TX to the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss ahead of a cold front pushing southeastward. With increasing mid-level height falls across the warm sector downstream of a highly amplified/positive-tilt upper trough over the central states, thunderstorm development will become widespread both along and ahead of the front by afternoon. Stronger low-level flow will be coincident with correspondingly weaker instability in the northeast portion of the warm sector. Low-level southwesterlies will be more moderate and subsiding with southwest extent where instability should be larger. As such, below-average confidence exists regarding the distribution of severe hazards, but signal remains sufficient to maintain a highlighted 15 percent area embedded within a broad low severe probability. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the areal delineation farther northeast in the Mid-South. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... Guidance has trended towards increased agreement with a highly amplified upper trough centered across much of the MS Valley at 12Z Sun to rapidly progress towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the D5 period. This will result in a deepening surface cyclone tracking roughly from the OH Valley to the St. Lawrence Valley. This type of evolution should result in very strong to extreme southerly low-level winds largely paralleling the meridional orientation of the surface cold front sweeping east. Unlike on D4 where the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble probabilities had less instability forecast with northern extent than the 00Z deterministic GFS and its GEFS probabilities, the opposite is progged for D5. Still, a thermodynamically limited warm sector is likely given weak mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy at most. But with conditional potential for this to overlap the strengthening low-level southerlies, low severe probabilities remain apparent over at least the central/eastern Carolinas to the Delmarva. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...East TX to the Lower OH Valley and Deep South... A moderately unstable air mass should become established during the day on D4/Sat from southeast TX to the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss ahead of a cold front pushing southeastward. With increasing mid-level height falls across the warm sector downstream of a highly amplified/positive-tilt upper trough over the central states, thunderstorm development will become widespread both along and ahead of the front by afternoon. Stronger low-level flow will be coincident with correspondingly weaker instability in the northeast portion of the warm sector. Low-level southwesterlies will be more moderate and subsiding with southwest extent where instability should be larger. As such, below-average confidence exists regarding the distribution of severe hazards, but signal remains sufficient to maintain a highlighted 15 percent area embedded within a broad low severe probability. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the areal delineation farther northeast in the Mid-South. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... Guidance has trended towards increased agreement with a highly amplified upper trough centered across much of the MS Valley at 12Z Sun to rapidly progress towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the D5 period. This will result in a deepening surface cyclone tracking roughly from the OH Valley to the St. Lawrence Valley. This type of evolution should result in very strong to extreme southerly low-level winds largely paralleling the meridional orientation of the surface cold front sweeping east. Unlike on D4 where the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble probabilities had less instability forecast with northern extent than the 00Z deterministic GFS and its GEFS probabilities, the opposite is progged for D5. Still, a thermodynamically limited warm sector is likely given weak mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy at most. But with conditional potential for this to overlap the strengthening low-level southerlies, low severe probabilities remain apparent over at least the central/eastern Carolinas to the Delmarva. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...East TX to the Lower OH Valley and Deep South... A moderately unstable air mass should become established during the day on D4/Sat from southeast TX to the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss ahead of a cold front pushing southeastward. With increasing mid-level height falls across the warm sector downstream of a highly amplified/positive-tilt upper trough over the central states, thunderstorm development will become widespread both along and ahead of the front by afternoon. Stronger low-level flow will be coincident with correspondingly weaker instability in the northeast portion of the warm sector. Low-level southwesterlies will be more moderate and subsiding with southwest extent where instability should be larger. As such, below-average confidence exists regarding the distribution of severe hazards, but signal remains sufficient to maintain a highlighted 15 percent area embedded within a broad low severe probability. Primary change with this outlook is to expand the areal delineation farther northeast in the Mid-South. ...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States... Guidance has trended towards increased agreement with a highly amplified upper trough centered across much of the MS Valley at 12Z Sun to rapidly progress towards the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic during the D5 period. This will result in a deepening surface cyclone tracking roughly from the OH Valley to the St. Lawrence Valley. This type of evolution should result in very strong to extreme southerly low-level winds largely paralleling the meridional orientation of the surface cold front sweeping east. Unlike on D4 where the 00Z deterministic ECMWF and its ensemble probabilities had less instability forecast with northern extent than the 00Z deterministic GFS and its GEFS probabilities, the opposite is progged for D5. Still, a thermodynamically limited warm sector is likely given weak mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy at most. But with conditional potential for this to overlap the strengthening low-level southerlies, low severe probabilities remain apparent over at least the central/eastern Carolinas to the Delmarva. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday night across parts of the Ozarks to the Red River Valley of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Ozarks to northeast TX... An amplifying shortwave trough over the Great Basin on Friday morning will progress southeast across the Four Corners to the southern High Plains by early Saturday. A surface low initially over the TX Panhandle vicinity should move east towards the Ozark Plateau, along a sharpening front that will accelerate southeast Friday night as surface high pressure builds over the West. While most guidance is fairly consistent on the synoptic scale with some mesoscale differences becoming more apparent by Friday night, the primary uncertainty is with the degree of instability ahead of the aforementioned frontal wave. The 00Z NAM appears to be an outlier among deterministic guidance with its typical cold/saturated bias apparent in the 0-1 km layer, while the GFS is on the more aggressive end of the spectrum relative to the GEFS. With substantial modification necessary of the CP air mass that is currently across all but Deep South TX, guidance may be a bit too aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based instability given the positive-tilt orientation and timing of the amplified shortwave trough. Both the NAM and to some extent ECMWF forecast soundings suggest substantial mid-level dry air will be prevalent within the southwest flow regime, and at least a modestly capped warm sector. As such, low confidence exists in whether surface-based convection can develop prior to 12Z Saturday. The most likely scenario appears to be elevated thunderstorms increasing in coverage Friday night within the low-level warm conveyor, as mid-level height falls gradually overspread the region. This activity should pose a threat for at least isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday night across parts of the Ozarks to the Red River Valley of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Ozarks to northeast TX... An amplifying shortwave trough over the Great Basin on Friday morning will progress southeast across the Four Corners to the southern High Plains by early Saturday. A surface low initially over the TX Panhandle vicinity should move east towards the Ozark Plateau, along a sharpening front that will accelerate southeast Friday night as surface high pressure builds over the West. While most guidance is fairly consistent on the synoptic scale with some mesoscale differences becoming more apparent by Friday night, the primary uncertainty is with the degree of instability ahead of the aforementioned frontal wave. The 00Z NAM appears to be an outlier among deterministic guidance with its typical cold/saturated bias apparent in the 0-1 km layer, while the GFS is on the more aggressive end of the spectrum relative to the GEFS. With substantial modification necessary of the CP air mass that is currently across all but Deep South TX, guidance may be a bit too aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based instability given the positive-tilt orientation and timing of the amplified shortwave trough. Both the NAM and to some extent ECMWF forecast soundings suggest substantial mid-level dry air will be prevalent within the southwest flow regime, and at least a modestly capped warm sector. As such, low confidence exists in whether surface-based convection can develop prior to 12Z Saturday. The most likely scenario appears to be elevated thunderstorms increasing in coverage Friday night within the low-level warm conveyor, as mid-level height falls gradually overspread the region. This activity should pose a threat for at least isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday night across parts of the Ozarks to the Red River Valley of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Ozarks to northeast TX... An amplifying shortwave trough over the Great Basin on Friday morning will progress southeast across the Four Corners to the southern High Plains by early Saturday. A surface low initially over the TX Panhandle vicinity should move east towards the Ozark Plateau, along a sharpening front that will accelerate southeast Friday night as surface high pressure builds over the West. While most guidance is fairly consistent on the synoptic scale with some mesoscale differences becoming more apparent by Friday night, the primary uncertainty is with the degree of instability ahead of the aforementioned frontal wave. The 00Z NAM appears to be an outlier among deterministic guidance with its typical cold/saturated bias apparent in the 0-1 km layer, while the GFS is on the more aggressive end of the spectrum relative to the GEFS. With substantial modification necessary of the CP air mass that is currently across all but Deep South TX, guidance may be a bit too aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based instability given the positive-tilt orientation and timing of the amplified shortwave trough. Both the NAM and to some extent ECMWF forecast soundings suggest substantial mid-level dry air will be prevalent within the southwest flow regime, and at least a modestly capped warm sector. As such, low confidence exists in whether surface-based convection can develop prior to 12Z Saturday. The most likely scenario appears to be elevated thunderstorms increasing in coverage Friday night within the low-level warm conveyor, as mid-level height falls gradually overspread the region. This activity should pose a threat for at least isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday night across parts of the Ozarks to the Red River Valley of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Ozarks to northeast TX... An amplifying shortwave trough over the Great Basin on Friday morning will progress southeast across the Four Corners to the southern High Plains by early Saturday. A surface low initially over the TX Panhandle vicinity should move east towards the Ozark Plateau, along a sharpening front that will accelerate southeast Friday night as surface high pressure builds over the West. While most guidance is fairly consistent on the synoptic scale with some mesoscale differences becoming more apparent by Friday night, the primary uncertainty is with the degree of instability ahead of the aforementioned frontal wave. The 00Z NAM appears to be an outlier among deterministic guidance with its typical cold/saturated bias apparent in the 0-1 km layer, while the GFS is on the more aggressive end of the spectrum relative to the GEFS. With substantial modification necessary of the CP air mass that is currently across all but Deep South TX, guidance may be a bit too aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based instability given the positive-tilt orientation and timing of the amplified shortwave trough. Both the NAM and to some extent ECMWF forecast soundings suggest substantial mid-level dry air will be prevalent within the southwest flow regime, and at least a modestly capped warm sector. As such, low confidence exists in whether surface-based convection can develop prior to 12Z Saturday. The most likely scenario appears to be elevated thunderstorms increasing in coverage Friday night within the low-level warm conveyor, as mid-level height falls gradually overspread the region. This activity should pose a threat for at least isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday night across parts of the Ozarks to the Red River Valley of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Ozarks to northeast TX... An amplifying shortwave trough over the Great Basin on Friday morning will progress southeast across the Four Corners to the southern High Plains by early Saturday. A surface low initially over the TX Panhandle vicinity should move east towards the Ozark Plateau, along a sharpening front that will accelerate southeast Friday night as surface high pressure builds over the West. While most guidance is fairly consistent on the synoptic scale with some mesoscale differences becoming more apparent by Friday night, the primary uncertainty is with the degree of instability ahead of the aforementioned frontal wave. The 00Z NAM appears to be an outlier among deterministic guidance with its typical cold/saturated bias apparent in the 0-1 km layer, while the GFS is on the more aggressive end of the spectrum relative to the GEFS. With substantial modification necessary of the CP air mass that is currently across all but Deep South TX, guidance may be a bit too aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based instability given the positive-tilt orientation and timing of the amplified shortwave trough. Both the NAM and to some extent ECMWF forecast soundings suggest substantial mid-level dry air will be prevalent within the southwest flow regime, and at least a modestly capped warm sector. As such, low confidence exists in whether surface-based convection can develop prior to 12Z Saturday. The most likely scenario appears to be elevated thunderstorms increasing in coverage Friday night within the low-level warm conveyor, as mid-level height falls gradually overspread the region. This activity should pose a threat for at least isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE OZARKS TO FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday night across parts of the Ozarks to the Red River Valley of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Ozarks to northeast TX... An amplifying shortwave trough over the Great Basin on Friday morning will progress southeast across the Four Corners to the southern High Plains by early Saturday. A surface low initially over the TX Panhandle vicinity should move east towards the Ozark Plateau, along a sharpening front that will accelerate southeast Friday night as surface high pressure builds over the West. While most guidance is fairly consistent on the synoptic scale with some mesoscale differences becoming more apparent by Friday night, the primary uncertainty is with the degree of instability ahead of the aforementioned frontal wave. The 00Z NAM appears to be an outlier among deterministic guidance with its typical cold/saturated bias apparent in the 0-1 km layer, while the GFS is on the more aggressive end of the spectrum relative to the GEFS. With substantial modification necessary of the CP air mass that is currently across all but Deep South TX, guidance may be a bit too aggressive with the northward extent of surface-based instability given the positive-tilt orientation and timing of the amplified shortwave trough. Both the NAM and to some extent ECMWF forecast soundings suggest substantial mid-level dry air will be prevalent within the southwest flow regime, and at least a modestly capped warm sector. As such, low confidence exists in whether surface-based convection can develop prior to 12Z Saturday. The most likely scenario appears to be elevated thunderstorms increasing in coverage Friday night within the low-level warm conveyor, as mid-level height falls gradually overspread the region. This activity should pose a threat for at least isolated severe hail. ..Grams.. 12/06/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies on Thursday. At the surface, a cyclone will begin to develop across the central Plains. As a result, dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies on Thursday. At the surface, a cyclone will begin to develop across the central Plains. As a result, dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies on Thursday. At the surface, a cyclone will begin to develop across the central Plains. As a result, dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies on Thursday. At the surface, a cyclone will begin to develop across the central Plains. As a result, dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Wed Dec 06 2023 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong mid-level westerly flow will move across the Rockies on Thursday. At the surface, a cyclone will begin to develop across the central Plains. As a result, dry and warm westerly downslope flow will increase across portions of the Southern Plains. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent will overlap sustained winds at 15-20 mph across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Fuels within this region are largely near normal moisture and only marginally receptive to spread. Locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in areas where fine fuels have cured and become dormant. ..Thornton.. 12/06/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more