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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...NM and TX... A shortwave trough will continue east across NM into northwest TX by early Friday. A persistent low-level warm theta-e advection regime in conjunction with mid-level DCVA/height falls ahead of the trough will support a nearly continuous swath of elevated convection, shifting east from NM and west TX into central TX by Thursday night. Elevated buoyancy will remain meager, suggesting that thunderstorm coverage will be sporadic. Guidance is consistent that the plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the trough on D2 will weaken early D3, inferring severe hail potential should be negligible. ...South FL... Rounds of lower-topped convection should continue within a persistent low-level northeasterly flow regime, namely along the southeast coast. Weak mid to upper-level lapse rates, slightly worse compared to D2, suggests instability will be marginal with low-end thunderstorm probabilities. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A cutoff low in the lower Colorado River Valley will shift into the Four Corners and become more of an open wave on Wednesday. With a strong trough exiting the Northeast by the end of the period, surface high pressure will intensify in the East with some maintenance of high pressure within the Great Basin. Cool temperatures and light winds over the driest fuels will again preclude fire weather concerns for most of the CONUS. Offshore flow will continue across southern California, though a slow weakening trend will occur through the period. RH early in the day, when the winds will be strongest, will not likely fall below critical thresholds. A couple hours of elevated fire weather does appear possible by early/mid afternoon. Fuels have dried further at lower elevations. However, the limited spatial extent and short duration of these conditions should keep fire weather concerns localized. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will be the dominant feature across much of the CONUS today. Stronger upper-level winds will be relegated to the Upper Midwest and Northeast due to a strong cyclone in eastern Canada. Cooler temperatures and light winds over dry fuels will keep fire weather minimal for most areas. Some increase in offshore winds will be possible in southern California. RH recovery overnight will likely be enough to mitigate fire weather concerns as winds increase late tonight. ..Wendt.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for Wednesday, but sub-severe hail will be possible over a portion of central to south New Mexico on Wednesday night. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough initially digging over the Lower CO Valley will pivot and drift east across AZ through the period. Downstream, a broad low-level warm theta-e advection regime will persist across NM and west TX as a modified airmass emanates north-northwest from the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Elevated buoyancy will remain scant to meager, likely supporting only sporadic to isolated thunderstorm coverage from northwest TX towards the Four Corners during the day. Convective coverage should increase Wednesday evening into the night as the cold-core region of the mid-level low shifts east, with an attendant corridor of steeper lapse rates overspreading the marginal moisture plume. Guidance has trended northward and slightly faster with the evolution of the mid-level jet curling into and through the base of the trough. This could yield a low-end supercell environment overnight across a portion of central to south NM. Potential for small to perhaps marginally severe hail should be focused on the meso-beta scale and given the rather marginal buoyancy environment, will refrain from a low-probability large hail highlight this cycle. ...South FL... Above-average agreement exists across guidance with the depiction of a stout 1040+ mb anticyclone drifting east from IL to the Upper OH Valley. This will influence persistent northeasterly low-level flow across south FL, with gradual moistening anticipated from the western Atlantic. Guidance has trended towards a more moist and weakly buoyant air mass during the period, with multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms expected. This should be most favored along the southeast part of the peninsula where boundary-layer speed convergence is largest. ..Grams.. 12/12/2023 Read more