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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited today across the country. Latest surface observations show persistent dry conditions across the Southwest into the southern High Plains where dewpoints are in the low to mid teens. This dry air mass will remain in place amid a mean (albeit weak) westerly flow regime. Recent guidance suggests widespread RH reductions into the low teens (and perhaps single digits) are likely across eastern NM into western TX; however, recent RAP/HRRR runs have initialized with a slight dry-bias across the Southwest that may be influencing these drier forecasts. Furthermore, increasing cloud cover around peak heating may modulate RH reductions to some degree. Areas of elevated conditions are possible in the immediate lee of more prominent terrain features across central NM to southwest TX, but the aforementioned forecast concerns, combined with generally weak gradient winds and modest fuel status, preclude fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are still not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will traverse the eastern CONUS as a second mid-level trough approaches the Southwest tomorrow/Sunday. Surface high pressure and an associated cool, dry airmass will overspread much of the CONUS, with static stability and mass subsidence limiting thunderstorm potential. ..Squitieri.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. ..Dean.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. ..Dean.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. ..Dean.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving eastward across central/southern CA this morning. An extensive precipitation band associated with this shortwave is expected to weaken later this morning, as stronger ascent becomes increasingly displaced eastward of available moisture. In the wake of the early-morning precipitation, showers may develop across near-coastal regions of central/southern CA by midday into early afternoon. However, with instability expected to remain quite weak and convection likely to be rather shallow and low-topped, lightning potential appears low. Elsewhere, persistent dry/stable conditions will limit thunderstorm potential across the rest of the CONUS. ..Dean.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level trough moving ashore along the West Coast and it is forecast to partially bifurcate, as a mid-level low evolves over northern AZ by Sunday morning and a trough weakens over the Pacific Northwest. A band of showers will spread inland across the West Coast during the day before precipitation coverage decreases with eastward extent by evening. Cool/stable conditions farther east due in large part to surface high pressure over the Gulf will result in conditions hostile for thunderstorm development over the central/eastern states. ..Smith/Marsh.. 12/30/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Dec 30 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is expected to persist across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. A southern-stream shortwave trough should move quickly eastward across the southern Plains, Southeast, and northern Gulf of Mexico next Tuesday into Thursday. While some elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of TX Tuesday afternoon and night, instability will likely remain too weak to support any severe threat. Appreciable low-level moisture should also be confined to the northern Gulf, along and south of a front. Little severe potential is evident as this shortwave trough progresses eastward across the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Wednesday into Thursday. Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that another upper trough/low will move across the southern Plains around next Friday into Saturday. Similar to the preceding upper trough, substantial inland advance of rich low-level moisture appears unlikely, suggesting overall low severe potential. Read more