Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into northern Mexico from Sunday into Sunday night, as flow remains from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the system, allowing surface dewpoints to increase into the lower to mid 60s across the lower to middle Texas coast. As flow increases at low-levels during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, and along and near the lower to middle Texas Coast. No severe threat is expected with this convection, and thunderstorms are not forecast elsewhere Sunday and Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into northern Mexico from Sunday into Sunday night, as flow remains from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the system, allowing surface dewpoints to increase into the lower to mid 60s across the lower to middle Texas coast. As flow increases at low-levels during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, and along and near the lower to middle Texas Coast. No severe threat is expected with this convection, and thunderstorms are not forecast elsewhere Sunday and Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into northern Mexico from Sunday into Sunday night, as flow remains from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the system, allowing surface dewpoints to increase into the lower to mid 60s across the lower to middle Texas coast. As flow increases at low-levels during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, and along and near the lower to middle Texas Coast. No severe threat is expected with this convection, and thunderstorms are not forecast elsewhere Sunday and Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into northern Mexico from Sunday into Sunday night, as flow remains from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the system, allowing surface dewpoints to increase into the lower to mid 60s across the lower to middle Texas coast. As flow increases at low-levels during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, and along and near the lower to middle Texas Coast. No severe threat is expected with this convection, and thunderstorms are not forecast elsewhere Sunday and Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the lower to middle Texas coast on Sunday, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into northern Mexico from Sunday into Sunday night, as flow remains from the southwest across the western Gulf Coast. Moisture advection will take place ahead of the system, allowing surface dewpoints to increase into the lower to mid 60s across the lower to middle Texas coast. As flow increases at low-levels during the day, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of the western Gulf of Mexico, and along and near the lower to middle Texas Coast. No severe threat is expected with this convection, and thunderstorms are not forecast elsewhere Sunday and Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across portions of northern Washington state, and near the central Gulf Coast area. ...Discussion... Threat for lightning is negligible across most of the CONUS Saturday. The only exceptions are near the central Gulf Coast and over parts of northern WA. In both of these areas lightning should still be quite sparse. Strong 500mb speed max will translate across WA early in the period before the associated short-wave trough advances into the northern Rockies later in the afternoon. Steeping lapse rates north of this jet and cooling thermodynamic profiles will lead to weak buoyancy primarily during the first half of the period. Scattered low-topped convection will develop along the front, and within the post-frontal air mass. Forecast soundings suggest the most robust updrafts could penetrate levels required for a few flashes of lightning. Farther south along the Gulf Coast, scattered weak convection should be noted at times within a broad zone of weak warm advection. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop if lifting parcels around 1 km AGL; however, most updrafts will struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning. Even so, an isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out from southeast LA toward the western FL Panhandle. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across portions of northern Washington state, and near the central Gulf Coast area. ...Discussion... Threat for lightning is negligible across most of the CONUS Saturday. The only exceptions are near the central Gulf Coast and over parts of northern WA. In both of these areas lightning should still be quite sparse. Strong 500mb speed max will translate across WA early in the period before the associated short-wave trough advances into the northern Rockies later in the afternoon. Steeping lapse rates north of this jet and cooling thermodynamic profiles will lead to weak buoyancy primarily during the first half of the period. Scattered low-topped convection will develop along the front, and within the post-frontal air mass. Forecast soundings suggest the most robust updrafts could penetrate levels required for a few flashes of lightning. Farther south along the Gulf Coast, scattered weak convection should be noted at times within a broad zone of weak warm advection. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop if lifting parcels around 1 km AGL; however, most updrafts will struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning. Even so, an isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out from southeast LA toward the western FL Panhandle. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across portions of northern Washington state, and near the central Gulf Coast area. ...Discussion... Threat for lightning is negligible across most of the CONUS Saturday. The only exceptions are near the central Gulf Coast and over parts of northern WA. In both of these areas lightning should still be quite sparse. Strong 500mb speed max will translate across WA early in the period before the associated short-wave trough advances into the northern Rockies later in the afternoon. Steeping lapse rates north of this jet and cooling thermodynamic profiles will lead to weak buoyancy primarily during the first half of the period. Scattered low-topped convection will develop along the front, and within the post-frontal air mass. Forecast soundings suggest the most robust updrafts could penetrate levels required for a few flashes of lightning. Farther south along the Gulf Coast, scattered weak convection should be noted at times within a broad zone of weak warm advection. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop if lifting parcels around 1 km AGL; however, most updrafts will struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning. Even so, an isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out from southeast LA toward the western FL Panhandle. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across portions of northern Washington state, and near the central Gulf Coast area. ...Discussion... Threat for lightning is negligible across most of the CONUS Saturday. The only exceptions are near the central Gulf Coast and over parts of northern WA. In both of these areas lightning should still be quite sparse. Strong 500mb speed max will translate across WA early in the period before the associated short-wave trough advances into the northern Rockies later in the afternoon. Steeping lapse rates north of this jet and cooling thermodynamic profiles will lead to weak buoyancy primarily during the first half of the period. Scattered low-topped convection will develop along the front, and within the post-frontal air mass. Forecast soundings suggest the most robust updrafts could penetrate levels required for a few flashes of lightning. Farther south along the Gulf Coast, scattered weak convection should be noted at times within a broad zone of weak warm advection. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop if lifting parcels around 1 km AGL; however, most updrafts will struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning. Even so, an isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out from southeast LA toward the western FL Panhandle. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across portions of northern Washington state, and near the central Gulf Coast area. ...Discussion... Threat for lightning is negligible across most of the CONUS Saturday. The only exceptions are near the central Gulf Coast and over parts of northern WA. In both of these areas lightning should still be quite sparse. Strong 500mb speed max will translate across WA early in the period before the associated short-wave trough advances into the northern Rockies later in the afternoon. Steeping lapse rates north of this jet and cooling thermodynamic profiles will lead to weak buoyancy primarily during the first half of the period. Scattered low-topped convection will develop along the front, and within the post-frontal air mass. Forecast soundings suggest the most robust updrafts could penetrate levels required for a few flashes of lightning. Farther south along the Gulf Coast, scattered weak convection should be noted at times within a broad zone of weak warm advection. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop if lifting parcels around 1 km AGL; however, most updrafts will struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning. Even so, an isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out from southeast LA toward the western FL Panhandle. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes will be possible across portions of northern Washington state, and near the central Gulf Coast area. ...Discussion... Threat for lightning is negligible across most of the CONUS Saturday. The only exceptions are near the central Gulf Coast and over parts of northern WA. In both of these areas lightning should still be quite sparse. Strong 500mb speed max will translate across WA early in the period before the associated short-wave trough advances into the northern Rockies later in the afternoon. Steeping lapse rates north of this jet and cooling thermodynamic profiles will lead to weak buoyancy primarily during the first half of the period. Scattered low-topped convection will develop along the front, and within the post-frontal air mass. Forecast soundings suggest the most robust updrafts could penetrate levels required for a few flashes of lightning. Farther south along the Gulf Coast, scattered weak convection should be noted at times within a broad zone of weak warm advection. A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop if lifting parcels around 1 km AGL; however, most updrafts will struggle to attain heights necessary for lightning. Even so, an isolated thunderstorm or two can not be ruled out from southeast LA toward the western FL Panhandle. ..Darrow/Moore.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...01z Update... Neutral/weak height rises will be noted along the Gulf Coast tonight within a broader southwesterly flow regime. The only short-wave trough of significance is currently located over the southern High Plains, and this feature will dampen significantly as it shifts downstream. As a result, there will be little influence along the immediate Gulf Coast. Offshore flow should persist across the western/central Gulf Coast, but weak warm advection may be adequate for a few deeper elevated updrafts from southeast LA into southern AL. While buoyancy is quite weak, moist profiles may be adequate for a flash or two of lightning with the most robust updrafts. 00z sounding from UIL is saturated through about 6km with only modest lapse rates. Strong midlevel speed max will approach the WA Coast by daybreak as thermal profiles cool/steepen in association with an inland-moving cold front. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will develop late across this region, supporting potential for a few flashes of lightning with near-frontal convection. ..Darrow.. 11/11/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning flashes remain possible along parts of the Gulf Coast, and the Olympic Peninsula of Washington. ...01z Update... Neutral/weak height rises will be noted along the Gulf Coast tonight within a broader southwesterly flow regime. The only short-wave trough of significance is currently located over the southern High Plains, and this feature will dampen significantly as it shifts downstream. As a result, there will be little influence along the immediate Gulf Coast. Offshore flow should persist across the western/central Gulf Coast, but weak warm advection may be adequate for a few deeper elevated updrafts from southeast LA into southern AL. While buoyancy is quite weak, moist profiles may be adequate for a flash or two of lightning with the most robust updrafts. 00z sounding from UIL is saturated through about 6km with only modest lapse rates. Strong midlevel speed max will approach the WA Coast by daybreak as thermal profiles cool/steepen in association with an inland-moving cold front. Forecast soundings suggest weak buoyancy will develop late across this region, supporting potential for a few flashes of lightning with near-frontal convection. ..Darrow.. 11/11/2023 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 10 22:45:01 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 10 22:45:01 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Nov 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Upper-level riding will strengthen across the Western US through the weekend. This will strengthen surface high pressure across the Great Basin on Sunday with potential for strengthening offshore flow across southern California. Model guidance suggests increasing surface pressure gradients will approach values associated with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather concerns. HREF ensemble guidance shows good signal for Elevated fire weather concerns, primarily in the lee of terrain and wind prone regions. Given that this signal is largely tied to terrain and probability of Critical conditions are low, no areas were included at this time. The upper-level ridge will shift eastward across the Central US into the middle of next week as a trough begins to deepen in the Pacific. This will bring primarily light winds and warming conditions across much of the central US, along with cooler conditions and precipitation chances in the Western US. Westerly flow across the Rockies will allow lee troughing to develop across the High Plains with periods of locally breezy/dry conditions. However, minimal overlap of the strongest winds and low RH limits confidence in the development of any more than elevated fire-weather conditions. ..Thornton.. 11/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more