Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...01z update... An intensifying upper trough over AZ is progged to continue amplifying as it makes its way over the southern Rockies this evening and into late tonight. A 90-100 kt 500 mb jet will emerge over the southern Plains around 06z, helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over northeast NM and the northwestern TX/OK Panhandles. Strong low-level warm advection ahead of the surface low will aid in developing low-topped thunderstorms across West TX and into parts of far southwest OK between 8-12z. Likely elevated above the surface stable layer, and with limited buoyancy owing to poor boundary-layer dewpoints in the 30-40s F, storms are not expected to be overly intense. However, very strong low and mid-level wind fields ahead of the trough/low my support the risk for occasional gusty/damaging winds with the line of storms. Will maintain the MRGL risk across west-central TX with a slight northward nudge into southwest OK for the latest CAM guidance. ..Lyons/Grams.. 01/08/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 7 23:40:06 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 7 23:40:06 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0312 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z A strong upper-level trough will lift northeastward out of the Midwest and into the Northeast through the middle of the new week. Another strong trough will eject into the southern Plains late next week. Thereafter, uncertainty in the upper-level pattern begins to increase. At the surface, cold air will be present across much of the northern/central CONUS and make progress southward with each successive trough passing. Surface low development within the central/southern High Plains will lead to periods of dry/windy conditions across parts of the Trans-Pecos. As cold fronts move southward, dry and windy conditions will also be possible within the Rio Grande Valley and South Texas. Some increase in fire weather concerns are possible this coming week as models continue to show minimal precipitation in these areas. However, until fuels dry sufficiently critical fire weather appears unlikely. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OK... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...20Z Update... Previous forecast reasoning remains valid with no changes needed. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). Read more

MD 0010 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0010 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Areas affected...Portions of Southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 071716Z - 072015Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow expected through the afternoon with rain transitioning to snow near the coast. DISCUSSION...Snow is intensifying across portions of southern New England as the surface low intensifies over the Atlantic and low-level wind fields strengthen. Snowfall rates of 1 to perhaps 2 inches per hour are expected through the afternoon before moving offshore by this evening. Areas near the coast which have been mostly rain thus far due to winds off the ocean will transition to snow in the next few hours as winds shift more northerly as the cyclone deepens/moves east. In addition, sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph may lead to some blowing and drifting snow and additional visibility restrictions through the afternoon. ..Bentley.. 01/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 41207155 41357278 41877321 42437323 42927264 43247189 43367117 43337037 42587013 42136996 41676987 41487000 41377050 41247147 41207155 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook AMEND 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...AND SOUTHWEST GA... AMENDED FOR INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THE FL PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA. ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may impact much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast states Tuesday, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. ...FL Panhandle/Southeast AL/Southern GA Tuesday morning... General expectation is that a fast-moving, well-organized convective line will be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the western FL Panhandle and southeast AL. Robust kinematic fields suggest that strong gusts are likely within this line. Additionally, large, looping low-level hodographs indicate there is possibility for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. With the mid-latitude cyclone (and associated large-scale ascent) becoming increasingly displaced to the north, relatively warm mid-level temperatures downstream across northern FL and southern GA are currently expected to lead to some decrease in the intensity of the line as it continues eastward. ...Coastal/Central Carolinas... As the system becomes negatively tilted, strong low-level moisture advection is anticipated ahead of the approaching cold front and associated convective line. This increase in low-level moisture will likely be accompanied by widespread cloud cover and showers, limiting diurnal heating. As a result, despite increasing low-level moisture, the combination of limited heating and relatively warm mid-level temperatures could stunt overall buoyancy and updraft strength. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will amplify once again within the prevailing split flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific. As the occurs, mid-level troughing is forecast to begin to dig across Pacific Northwest, and a strong downstream trough, initially approaching the Mississippi Valley, likely will remain progressive. Strong cyclogenesis appears likely to proceed from the Mississippi Valley through much of the eastern U.S., with the center of the primary surface cyclone still generally forecast to track from the Ozark Plateau/Mid South vicinity through the lower Great Lakes region by late Tuesday night. Models indicate that the mid/upper trough axis will take on a negative tilt while pivoting northeast of the Mississippi Valley, with strongest difluence aloft overspreading much of the Southeast. Further intensification of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields may include 50-80+ kt southerly to southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer overspreading much of the eastern Gulf/southern Atlantic Coast region during the day Tuesday, accompanied by a moistening warm sector. ...Southeast... Associated with the strong synoptic forcing for ascent, a strong to severe squall line, perhaps closely preceded by discrete supercell development, may be ongoing ahead of an eastward surging cold front across parts of central/southern Alabama into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 12Z Tuesday. While the forcing for ascent likely will remain sufficient to maintain this convective development across much of the eastern Gulf and southern Atlantic Coast region by Tuesday evening, the extent to which thermodynamic profiles become supportive remains unclear. While inflow off the Atlantic into the Carolinas may contribute to pre-frontal low-level moistening even if the Gulf moist inflow becomes cut off, model forecast soundings suggest that relatively warm layers aloft with weak lapse rates will generally inhibit appreciable boundary-layer destabilization. It is possible that this could contribute to weakening convective trends at some point across Georgia and Florida, before convection potentially intensifies once again across the Carolinas, before advancing offshore. This uncertainty, among others, precludes an outlook of higher severe probabilities at this time. However, given the synoptic forcing, the strength of the deep-layer wind fields, and the large clockwise-curved hodographs evident in forecast soundings, the environment seems likely to become at least conditionally supportive of convection capable of producing a few strong tornadoes and/or widespread damaging wind gusts. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024 Read more