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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Savannah District, announced that Hartwell, Richard B. Russell and J. Strom Thurmond Lakes have emerged from drought level 2 and were back in drought level 1 operations due to the recent rain over the Savannah River System Basin. 94.1 The Lake WSNW Radio (Seneca, S.C.), Jan 12, 2024 The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Savannah District, which encompasses Lake Hartwell, activated its drought management plan to conserve water. UpstateToday.com (Seneca, S.C.), Oct 25, 2023 The first drought level for the Upper Savannah River was declared on Sept. 10 as the pool elevation of J. Strom Thurmond Lake slipped below 326.0 feet above mean sea level. US Army Corps of Engineers, Savannah District (Ga.), Sept. 11, 2023

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CRE TO 15 SSE FAY TO 30 NW RIC. ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-031-041-047-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-101- 103-107-117-127-129-131-137-141-147-163-185-187-191-195- 100040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON PAMLICO PENDER PITT SAMPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-036-041-053-081-087-093-095-149-175-181-183-199-570-595- 620-650-670-700-730-760-800-830-100040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CRE TO 15 SSE FAY TO 30 NW RIC. ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-031-041-047-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-101- 103-107-117-127-129-131-137-141-147-163-185-187-191-195- 100040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON PAMLICO PENDER PITT SAMPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-036-041-053-081-087-093-095-149-175-181-183-199-570-595- 620-650-670-700-730-760-800-830-100040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW CRE TO 15 SSE FAY TO 30 NW RIC. ..THORNTON..01/09/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-017-019-031-041-047-049-061-065-073-079-083-091-101- 103-107-117-127-129-131-137-141-147-163-185-187-191-195- 100040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GATES GREENE HALIFAX HERTFORD JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON PAMLICO PENDER PITT SAMPSON WARREN WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON VAC025-036-041-053-081-087-093-095-149-175-181-183-199-570-595- 620-650-670-700-730-760-800-830-100040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...AND MUCH OF AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...and much of AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 120228Z - 120430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an initial round of strong to severe thunderstorms, with the primary risks being large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across parts of southeast OK, northeast TX, and much of AR this evening, largely aided by strengthening low-level warm advection evident in regional VWP data and observed 00Z soundings. Per the observed LZK 00Z sounding and RAP forecast soundings, storms evolving over central AR are likely elevated, though 50-60 kt of effective shear and a plume of steep lapse rates overspreading the region are supporting loosely organized storm structures with occasional midlevel rotation. The primary concern with this activity will be sporadic marginally severe hail, though localized clustering could support damaging winds as well. Farther southwest in northeast TX and southeast OK, a broken band of thunderstorms is evolving where low-level convergence is slightly stronger ahead of an evolving surface low in OK. Lower 60s dewpoints are gradually spreading north ahead of these storms (beneath steeper midlevel lapse rates), suggesting that an evolution to surface-based convection is possible. Similarly strong deep-layer shear will favor embedded supercell structures (with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging winds). However, if this activity can root at the surface, large clockwise-curved hodographs with strong streamwise vorticity could conditionally support a tornado or two. Overall, the need for a watch in the short-term is uncertain, though trends are being monitored. A second round of severe storms is expected along the cold front later tonight. ..Weinman/Goss.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 33169558 33739511 34399474 35069465 35529441 35849411 35999344 36049260 35919183 35769133 35509114 34559138 33999171 33669222 33439266 32749456 32769522 32919560 33169558 Read more

MD 0045 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0045 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern Nebraska into extreme northern Kansas Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 112140Z - 120345Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should increase into the evening hours, with 1-2 inch/hr rates possible. Heavy snow will be most likely in central Nebraska over the next couple of hours, becoming increasingly likely in southeast Nebraska in the 00-03Z period. DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is ejecting into the Plains states, with a 120+ kt 300 mb jet streak overspreading the southern Plains. This places the central Plains in the left-exit region of the upper-jet (per 21Z mesoanalysis), resulting in plenty of divergence aloft. The low-level mass response has been for the surface low to intensify across the southern Plains. This supports an increase in surface-925 mb cold air advection beneath increasing intense 850-700 mb warm-air advection over central and eastern NE, where 700 mb frontogenesis is also now underway. Moderate snow has recently begun to fall in central Nebraska per surface observations, with snowfall rates expected to only increase with time as dynamic lift increases and the dendritic growth zone continues to saturate. Later this afternoon, the anticipated heavier snow bands may produce snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour, where reduced visibility will also become a concern. Latest high-resolution model guidance consensus suggests that the heaviest snow should begin in the next couple of hours, and peak in intensity somewhere in the 00-03Z period, especially over southeastern NE. ..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF... LAT...LON 42230081 42039872 41419693 40749594 40189559 39849594 39749687 39739796 40089884 40609979 41350089 42230081 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARK-LA-TEX... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are possible tonight over the Ark-La-Tex, and in nearby parts of southeastern Oklahoma, east Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana. ...Ark-La-Tex... The latest water vapor imagery shows an progressive upper-level trough over the southern Rockies. An associated 90 to 120 knot mid-level jet will translate quickly through the base of the trough eastward into the southern Plains this evening. The exit region of the mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection will take place across northeast Texas, Louisiana and far southwest Arkansas, where surface dewpoints will likely increase in the lower 60s F. In response to increasing low-level moisture and steepening mid-level lapse rates, a pocket of instability will develop across the Ark-La-Tex by late evening. Thunderstorms are forecast initiate within this pocket of instability during the mid to late evening, and persist into the overnight period. These storms should develop a severe threat, with the threat aided by a split structure within the mid-level jet. Concerning the timing of initiation, scattered thunderstorms are expected to initiate in eastern Oklahoma around 03Z or 04Z, with additional storms and greater convective coverage, developing further to the south by 06Z. Considering that both deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent will be very strong, supercell development is expected. RAP forecast soundings around 08Z in far southwest Arkansas have MLCAPE near 1200 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 85 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rate approaching 8.0 C/km. This environment will support supercells with large hail. The more dominant and intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is expected to increase into the 300 to 350 m2/s2 range,, supporting a tornado threat. A strong tornado will be possible. As a line of intense storms develops and moves eastward across the Ark-La-Tex tonight, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. A few of the stronger wind gusts along the leading edge of the line could peak above 70 knots. The severe threat is expected to persist through the end of the period, as the line of storms approaches the Mississippi River. ...East Texas/Louisiana... The axis of the mid-level jet is forecast to move eastward across central and east Texas tonight. To the south of the mid-level jet axis, instability and large-scale ascent are forecast to decrease with southward extent. For this reason, any severe threat that develops should be more isolated. Even still, deep-layer shear will remain very strong, which could support a severe threat tonight. Large hail, wind damage and perhaps a tornado will be the primary threats. ..Broyles.. 01/12/2024 Read more