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MD 0047 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 9... FOR ARKLATEX
Mesoscale Discussion 0047 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...Arklatex Concerning...Tornado Watch 9... Valid 120544Z - 120745Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 9 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat will increase across the western half of ww009 over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel vort advancing east across the TX South Plains. Leading edge of large-scale support is spreading across north-central TX in association with left exit region of midlevel jet. Over the last hour or so, IR imagery suggests convection has gradually been deepening along the front, from east of SEP-DFW-southeast of Sherman TX. Lightning is now observed with this activity over Collin County and further strengthening is expected along the wind shift over the next few hours. Latest thinking is substantial increase in convection should be noted along the advancing front across the western portions of ww009 by 07z. While the frontal convection may become more linear with time, very strong shear supports the potential for supercells. Damaging winds are expected with this convection along with some risk for tornadoes. ..Darrow.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33989640 35639230 33309230 31669639 33989640 Read more

WW 0009 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 9 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0047 ..DEAN..01/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 9 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC011-013-019-023-025-027-029-039-045-051-053-057-059-061-069- 071-073-081-083-085-091-095-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-117-119- 125-127-131-133-139-141-145-147-149-120740- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK CLEBURNE CLEVELAND COLUMBIA CONWAY DALLAS FAULKNER GARLAND GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING HOWARD JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LITTLE RIVER LOGAN LONOKE MILLER MONROE MONTGOMERY NEVADA OUACHITA PERRY PIKE POLK POPE PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT SEBASTIAN SEVIER UNION VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF YELL LAC015-017-027-119-120740- Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will be oriented across central FL Saturday morning. The front will quickly move across the southern Peninsula through early afternoon. While a moist boundary layer will be in place ahead of the front, veering low-level winds and poor midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will be shifting away from the Southeast U.S. by the morning hours. As such, severe potential will be low, though a few lingering thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not expected elsewhere as an arctic airmass settles southward across much of the CONUS. ..Leitman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, some potentially to 75 mph, and a few tornadoes, are possible from today into early this evening from parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas. The greatest chance of severe wind gusts will be from central and northern Mississippi into northwest Alabama this morning. ...Gulf Coast States... A progressive upper-level trough will move quickly northeastward from the Ark-La-Tex to the Ohio Valley today. This morning, a north-to-south corridor of maximized low-level moisture will be in place ahead of the trough across the lower Mississippi Valley. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and just to the west of the moist axis at daybreak across eastern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. This line is forecast to move eastward across central and northern Mississippi during the mid to late morning. Peak intensity within this line of strong storms is expected around 15Z, as the core of a 100 to 120 knot mid-level jet moves in from the west. Damaging wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line, with some gusts to around 75 mph possible, mainly associated with organized bowing segments. An isolated tornado threat is also expected with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the line of storms moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states into weaker instability around midday, the wind-damage threat should become more isolated. The greatest wind-damage threat is expected to shift from the central Gulf Coast states southward toward the central Gulf Coast early this afternoon, as instability becomes maximized along and near the coast. ...Georgia/Carolinas... Strong moisture advection will occur today from eastern parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas, as a fast-moving upper-level trough moves east-northeastward across the Tennessee Valley. The moist axis will be located just ahead of the trough, moving eastward from the central Gulf Coast states into the Carolinas by afternoon. Instability is forecast to become maximized by late afternoon, as the line of storms approaches in the stronger instability. The potential for wind damage is expected to increase somewhat as the line of storms approaches the stronger instability, from eastern South Carolina into southern North Carolina. Wind damage will be moist likely along the more organized part of the line. A tornado threat could also develop with rotating cells in or ahead of the line. However, in many areas, instability will remain too weak for a greater severe threat coverage. The severe threat is expected to diminish during the early evening, as the upper-level trough outruns the warm sector. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 01/12/2024 Read more