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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms, perhaps including an organizing cluster, may impact the Gulf coast vicinity Sunday. This may be accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, from mid/upper Texas coastal areas eastward into the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... In general, models indicate that a blocking mid/upper high, initially centered near the British Columbia/Washington border, will remain prominent through this period. It does appear that it may begin to weaken, but there is considerable spread evident within the various output concerning its evolution, and that of a remnant low over the Southwest. Downstream of this regime, models indicate that a significant short wave perturbation, of northern mid-latitude origins, will continue sharply digging, through the upper Mississippi Valley and mid into lower Missouri Valley. By 12Z Monday, the leading edge of an associated significant low-level cold intrusion may be in the process of advancing across the southern Appalachians, south of the Tennessee Valley and Ozark Plateau, and through south central portions of the Great Plains. Models indicate that this will be preceded by one notable short wave perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which likely will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime downstream of the digging short wave, after accelerating east-northeast of the lower Rio Grande Valley. ...Texas coastal plain through eastern Gulf coast... Forcing associated with the subtropical perturbation may be supporting an upscale growing cluster of thunderstorms across parts of south central Texas toward mid/upper Texas coastal areas early Sunday. It appears that this will probably be rooted, at least initially, within ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, near the northern periphery of capping elevated mixed-layer air, where steep mid-level lapse rates may be contributing to an environment potentially conducive to severe hail. As this forcing spreads across and east-northeast of Texas coastal areas, toward the northeastern Gulf coast, convection may acquire increasing inflow of unstable boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. Based on associated strengthening of lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields evident in some model output (including the NAM and ECMWF), there appears some signal that activity could organize and become accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging surface gusts. It appears that this could reach the Florida Panhandle vicinity by late Sunday evening, before more stable updraft inflow contributes to weakening. ..Kerr.. 03/15/2024 Read more

The water in Shenandoah’s city wells was about four feet deep, although it’s preferable to see at least 10 to 12 feet of water when the pumps are operating. If the water level were to drop to just one foot, the wells would have to be shut down. Water conservation has been urged. Irrigation and vehicle washing were not allowed. KMTV 3 News Now (Omaha, Neb.), March 14, 2024

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HTS TO 30 SSW PKB TO 10 WNW EKN. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150700Z. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC013-021-035-041-053-087-150700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON ROANE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HTS TO 30 SSW PKB TO 10 WNW EKN. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150700Z. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC013-021-035-041-053-087-150700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON ROANE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HTS TO 30 SSW PKB TO 10 WNW EKN. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150700Z. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC013-021-035-041-053-087-150700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON ROANE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE HTS TO 30 SSW PKB TO 10 WNW EKN. WW 50 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 150700Z. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WVC013-021-035-041-053-087-150700- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON ROANE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 50 SEVERE TSTM OH WV 150310Z - 150700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Ohio Northern West Virginia * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1110 PM until 300 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered fast-moving storms over Ohio will track eastward across northern West Virginia during the next few hours, posing some risk of hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Athens OH to 55 miles east southeast of Parkersburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 44...WW 45...WW 46...WW 47...WW 48...WW 49... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

Winter did not bring heavy snowfall to Wisconsin or the temperatures to maintain the snow, allowing fires to begin early and in high numbers. So far this year, there have been 220 fires across 467 acres through Wednesday, March 13, compared to the 10-year average of 20 fires across 26.94 acres by that date. In just the past week, there were 50 fires. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Wis.), March 13, 2024

MD 0251 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 49... FOR FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA...KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...FAR WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0251 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 Areas affected...Far Southern Indiana...Kentucky...Southern Ohio...Far Western West Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 49... Valid 150359Z - 150600Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 49 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for a couple more hours across the Ohio Valley. Wind damage, isolated large hail, and perhaps a brief spinup will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows an mesoscale convective system over the Ohio Valley, with several embedded supercells and multiple short line segments. Weak instability is currently located to the south of the MCS across much of Kentucky. In spite of this, a 65 to 80 knot mid-level jet is analyzed over northern Indiana and northern Ohio. The MCS is currently located near the southern edge of the mid-level jet, where 0-6 km shear is estimated to be near 50 knots, according to the RAP. In addition, a 40 knot low-level jet is analyzed over the Ohio Valley. The strong shear suggests that severe storms will continue to be possible over the next few hours. Wind damage, isolated large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible. However, the severe threat is expected to gradually decrease over time as the airmass gradually stabilizes. ..Broyles.. 03/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 38738529 38158663 37438688 37078680 36878636 36898580 37458441 38008312 38818155 39328128 39508136 39658167 39648224 39238390 38738529 Read more

WW 0050 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW HTS TO 5 S UNI TO 25 N EKN. ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 50 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC053-105-150640- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLIA MEIGS WVC013-021-035-041-053-085-087-105-107-150640- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALHOUN GILMER JACKSON LEWIS MASON RITCHIE ROANE WIRT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0049 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W LOZ TO 10 S LEX TO 10 S UNI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251 ..DEAN..03/15/24 ATTN...WFO...LMK...ILN...JKL... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 49 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC011-049-173-205-150640- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BATH CLARK MONTGOMERY ROWAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more