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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts Texas and western Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from eastern Ontario into ME. Farther south, a southern-stream jet will extend from Mexico across much of the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, with an embedded shortwave trough sweeping across northern Mexico and NM through 00Z. This wave will emerge into far western TX by 12Z Thursday, with moderate southwest flow aloft across much of TX. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist with this wave with -20 C at 500 mb into the TX Panhandle, and -16 C toward southeast TX where shortwave ridging will occur. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast, with initial low-level moisture return into far southern TX during the day. A trough will develop with strong heating near the NM/TX border, with a east-west oriented front stalling over northern OK and AR. ...TX Panhandle into northwest OK... Strong surface heating combined with cooling aloft will result in very steep lapse rates across the region, although moisture will be limited. Still, a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is forecast in the vicinity of the surface trough. Lift associated with the approaching trough and sufficient surface convergence should yield scattered storms by late afternoon, from the TX Panhandle into western OK. Inverted-V type profiles will support locally strong gusts, while cold temperatures aloft and lengthy mid to upper hodographs support primarily sub-severe hail, although an isolated 1.00" report is possible. ...Southeast TX overnight... Moisture will increase late Wednesday night with upper 60s F dewpoints across the coastal counties south of a warm front. Although capping will exist initially, elevated instability and continued cooling aloft may support scattered elevated thunderstorms. The primary concern here will be hail as instability increases to over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear becomes favorable. The threat appears highly conditional as storm coverage may be meager. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts Texas and western Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from eastern Ontario into ME. Farther south, a southern-stream jet will extend from Mexico across much of the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, with an embedded shortwave trough sweeping across northern Mexico and NM through 00Z. This wave will emerge into far western TX by 12Z Thursday, with moderate southwest flow aloft across much of TX. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist with this wave with -20 C at 500 mb into the TX Panhandle, and -16 C toward southeast TX where shortwave ridging will occur. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast, with initial low-level moisture return into far southern TX during the day. A trough will develop with strong heating near the NM/TX border, with a east-west oriented front stalling over northern OK and AR. ...TX Panhandle into northwest OK... Strong surface heating combined with cooling aloft will result in very steep lapse rates across the region, although moisture will be limited. Still, a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is forecast in the vicinity of the surface trough. Lift associated with the approaching trough and sufficient surface convergence should yield scattered storms by late afternoon, from the TX Panhandle into western OK. Inverted-V type profiles will support locally strong gusts, while cold temperatures aloft and lengthy mid to upper hodographs support primarily sub-severe hail, although an isolated 1.00" report is possible. ...Southeast TX overnight... Moisture will increase late Wednesday night with upper 60s F dewpoints across the coastal counties south of a warm front. Although capping will exist initially, elevated instability and continued cooling aloft may support scattered elevated thunderstorms. The primary concern here will be hail as instability increases to over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear becomes favorable. The threat appears highly conditional as storm coverage may be meager. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. ..Weinman/Goss.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon. While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves, which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel reports). ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon. While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves, which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel reports). ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon. While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves, which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel reports). ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon. While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves, which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel reports). ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon. While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves, which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel reports). ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon. While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves, which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel reports). ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of the Ohio River Valley. Latest surface observations show winds already increasing to 15-20 mph across a broad swath of the region. These winds are expected to continue through peak heating this afternoon. While recent guidance has initialized slightly drier than actual observations, RH values are beginning to fall into the 35-40% range with further reductions down to 25-30% expected by late afternoon. Consequently, elevated fire weather conditions appear probable, but fire weather concerns will primarily be focused across areas with high concentrations of 1-hour fuels (primarily grasses and leaves, which have sufficiently dried in recent days based on regional fuel reports). ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split flow regime will develop over the U.S. throughout the day with a belt of northwesterly flow in the Midwest and subtropical westerlies at lower latitudes. No widespread areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected, although some localized gusty and dry conditions may develop in portions of the Appalachians and High Plains. ...Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC... As a cold front continues to push southeastward through the East Coast and FL Peninsula, locally stronger post-frontal surface winds could yield Elevated fire-weather conditions in regions of locally drier fuels. The lowest relative humidities are expected from the Ohio River Valley southward through western NC and SC along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. Low confidence exists regarding the overlap of strongest surface winds, drier conditions, and receptive fuels, precluding any Elevated areas at this time. ...Southern High Plains... The surface pattern across the Southern High Plains will be influenced by steady, post-frontal high pressure along the Gulf Coast and a developing, mid-level cutoff low over the Four Corners region. This will yield gradual moisture return across the Southern Plains, bounded to the west by drier southwesterly flow. Locally windy (around 15+ mph) and dry (relative humidities around 20-25 percent) conditions may develop across portions of the TX/OK Panhandles. Some precipitation has occurred across the region in the last few days, but locally drier fuels may support pockets of heightened fire-weather conditions on Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0727 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Gradual height falls over the Pacific Northwest will result in a slow breakdown of the blocking pattern in the western states, and slow eastward progression of the closed midlevel low from AZ to NM. Lingering low-midlevel moisture and cool midlevel temperatures will again support scattered diurnal convection from the southern Sierra Nevada into the Peninsular/Transverse Ranges of southern CA, as well as over the Mogollon Rim from AZ into western NM. Otherwise, a relatively cool/dry post-frontal air mass will preclude thunderstorms across the central/eastern CONUS. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/19/2024 Read more