Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will be fairly limited through the end of the work week before increasing late this weekend into early next week across parts of the southern High Plains. The upper low currently meandering across the Southwest will gradually migrate into the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days. This will introduce rain chances across much of the southern and eastern CONUS that should limit fire concerns for most locations outside of the southern High Plains. ...D6/Sunday - Southern High Plains... ERCs across west/southwest TX into eastern NM are currently near seasonal normal values, but should gradually increase over the next several days amid dry and warm conditions (temperatures should climb into the 75-90th percentile range for late March later this week). Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the development of a robust shortwave trough over the western CONUS by the D5/Sat to D6/Sun time frame. This feature is generally expected to move into the southern Rockies/southern Plains during the Sun/Mon period with the development of a lee cyclone over southeast CO/southwest KS by Sunday evening. Although ensemble cluster analyses hint that discrepancies regarding the exact timing of the upper wave persist among ensemble members, the run-to-run trend has been towards a stronger lee cyclone. In turn, this has yielded higher confidence in breezy gradient winds over the southern High Plains. The downslope flow regime should promote a swath of dry, windy conditions behind a sharpening dryline. Given this trend, and the overall synoptic regime, which is typical of critical fire weather regimes for this region, a 40% risk area has been introduced. Further refinements are expected as guidance comes into better agreement regarding surface features, and fire concerns may persist into D7/Mon and D8/Tues depending on the evolution of the synoptic wave. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. No changes were required for the 20Z update, with only general thunderstorms expected across the Southwest. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A closed midlevel low will move gradually eastward across the Southwest through the period, while associated weak DCVA overspreads the region. This large-scale ascent will promote scattered diurnal thunderstorms, given cold temperatures aloft/steepening deep-layer lapse rates. On the backside of the closed midlevel low, diurnal heating and the steep midlevel lapse rates will also support isolated thunderstorms across parts of southern CA into the Sierra -- largely driven by orographic lift/terrain circulations. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change to this forecast was to introduce an Elevated risk area to portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Better alignment in ensemble guidance has increased confidence in observing widespread RH reductions into the 20-30% range in the lee of the Appalachians with the downslope flow regime. Given the antecedent dry air mass, RH reductions between 20-25% may actually be more common, as suggested by drier deterministic solutions. Regardless, confidence remains high in 15-20 mph winds with stronger winds (gusting to 30-40 mph) likely within the higher terrain. While larger fuels remain somewhat moist, recent fuel reports from the region suggest that 1 and some 10-hour fuels are receptive and should support a fire threat. There remains some forecast uncertainty regarding the northern and southern extent of the threat area, so further refinements are possible. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change to this forecast was to introduce an Elevated risk area to portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Better alignment in ensemble guidance has increased confidence in observing widespread RH reductions into the 20-30% range in the lee of the Appalachians with the downslope flow regime. Given the antecedent dry air mass, RH reductions between 20-25% may actually be more common, as suggested by drier deterministic solutions. Regardless, confidence remains high in 15-20 mph winds with stronger winds (gusting to 30-40 mph) likely within the higher terrain. While larger fuels remain somewhat moist, recent fuel reports from the region suggest that 1 and some 10-hour fuels are receptive and should support a fire threat. There remains some forecast uncertainty regarding the northern and southern extent of the threat area, so further refinements are possible. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change to this forecast was to introduce an Elevated risk area to portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Better alignment in ensemble guidance has increased confidence in observing widespread RH reductions into the 20-30% range in the lee of the Appalachians with the downslope flow regime. Given the antecedent dry air mass, RH reductions between 20-25% may actually be more common, as suggested by drier deterministic solutions. Regardless, confidence remains high in 15-20 mph winds with stronger winds (gusting to 30-40 mph) likely within the higher terrain. While larger fuels remain somewhat moist, recent fuel reports from the region suggest that 1 and some 10-hour fuels are receptive and should support a fire threat. There remains some forecast uncertainty regarding the northern and southern extent of the threat area, so further refinements are possible. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change to this forecast was to introduce an Elevated risk area to portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Better alignment in ensemble guidance has increased confidence in observing widespread RH reductions into the 20-30% range in the lee of the Appalachians with the downslope flow regime. Given the antecedent dry air mass, RH reductions between 20-25% may actually be more common, as suggested by drier deterministic solutions. Regardless, confidence remains high in 15-20 mph winds with stronger winds (gusting to 30-40 mph) likely within the higher terrain. While larger fuels remain somewhat moist, recent fuel reports from the region suggest that 1 and some 10-hour fuels are receptive and should support a fire threat. There remains some forecast uncertainty regarding the northern and southern extent of the threat area, so further refinements are possible. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change to this forecast was to introduce an Elevated risk area to portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Better alignment in ensemble guidance has increased confidence in observing widespread RH reductions into the 20-30% range in the lee of the Appalachians with the downslope flow regime. Given the antecedent dry air mass, RH reductions between 20-25% may actually be more common, as suggested by drier deterministic solutions. Regardless, confidence remains high in 15-20 mph winds with stronger winds (gusting to 30-40 mph) likely within the higher terrain. While larger fuels remain somewhat moist, recent fuel reports from the region suggest that 1 and some 10-hour fuels are receptive and should support a fire threat. There remains some forecast uncertainty regarding the northern and southern extent of the threat area, so further refinements are possible. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The primary change to this forecast was to introduce an Elevated risk area to portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Better alignment in ensemble guidance has increased confidence in observing widespread RH reductions into the 20-30% range in the lee of the Appalachians with the downslope flow regime. Given the antecedent dry air mass, RH reductions between 20-25% may actually be more common, as suggested by drier deterministic solutions. Regardless, confidence remains high in 15-20 mph winds with stronger winds (gusting to 30-40 mph) likely within the higher terrain. While larger fuels remain somewhat moist, recent fuel reports from the region suggest that 1 and some 10-hour fuels are receptive and should support a fire threat. There remains some forecast uncertainty regarding the northern and southern extent of the threat area, so further refinements are possible. Other forecast concerns outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 03/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... A split-flow regime will support separate regions of possible fire-weather conditions on Wednesday. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the southeastern NM and West TX on Wednesday afternoon. Localized areas of dry, windy conditions are also possible across the Mid-Atlantic, although lower confidence in fuel levels currently precludes any Elevated areas. ...Southeastern NM and West TX... An initial cutoff low is expected to shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday, yielding westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface cyclone near the NM/TX border. This will yield prolonged westerly surface flow up to around 15-20 mph and relative humidities dropping to around 15 percent. Current guidance suggests fuels are not at critical levels, but much of the region has not measured any precipitation in the last two weeks. Predictability is slightly lower due to the nature of the cutoff low and timing of the eastward-ejecting trough. However, confidence is sufficient to introduce an Elevated area representing the location of driest and windiest conditions on Wednesday afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic... Gusty, post-frontal conditions will persist throughout the day on Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic. The driest conditions are currently expected in central VA, where relative humidities around 25-30 percent are possible amidst surface winds of 10-15 mph. Pockets of drier fuels may support locally higher fire-weather conditions, but relatively low confidence precludes an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts Texas and western Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from eastern Ontario into ME. Farther south, a southern-stream jet will extend from Mexico across much of the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, with an embedded shortwave trough sweeping across northern Mexico and NM through 00Z. This wave will emerge into far western TX by 12Z Thursday, with moderate southwest flow aloft across much of TX. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist with this wave with -20 C at 500 mb into the TX Panhandle, and -16 C toward southeast TX where shortwave ridging will occur. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast, with initial low-level moisture return into far southern TX during the day. A trough will develop with strong heating near the NM/TX border, with a east-west oriented front stalling over northern OK and AR. ...TX Panhandle into northwest OK... Strong surface heating combined with cooling aloft will result in very steep lapse rates across the region, although moisture will be limited. Still, a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is forecast in the vicinity of the surface trough. Lift associated with the approaching trough and sufficient surface convergence should yield scattered storms by late afternoon, from the TX Panhandle into western OK. Inverted-V type profiles will support locally strong gusts, while cold temperatures aloft and lengthy mid to upper hodographs support primarily sub-severe hail, although an isolated 1.00" report is possible. ...Southeast TX overnight... Moisture will increase late Wednesday night with upper 60s F dewpoints across the coastal counties south of a warm front. Although capping will exist initially, elevated instability and continued cooling aloft may support scattered elevated thunderstorms. The primary concern here will be hail as instability increases to over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear becomes favorable. The threat appears highly conditional as storm coverage may be meager. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts Texas and western Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from eastern Ontario into ME. Farther south, a southern-stream jet will extend from Mexico across much of the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, with an embedded shortwave trough sweeping across northern Mexico and NM through 00Z. This wave will emerge into far western TX by 12Z Thursday, with moderate southwest flow aloft across much of TX. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist with this wave with -20 C at 500 mb into the TX Panhandle, and -16 C toward southeast TX where shortwave ridging will occur. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast, with initial low-level moisture return into far southern TX during the day. A trough will develop with strong heating near the NM/TX border, with a east-west oriented front stalling over northern OK and AR. ...TX Panhandle into northwest OK... Strong surface heating combined with cooling aloft will result in very steep lapse rates across the region, although moisture will be limited. Still, a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is forecast in the vicinity of the surface trough. Lift associated with the approaching trough and sufficient surface convergence should yield scattered storms by late afternoon, from the TX Panhandle into western OK. Inverted-V type profiles will support locally strong gusts, while cold temperatures aloft and lengthy mid to upper hodographs support primarily sub-severe hail, although an isolated 1.00" report is possible. ...Southeast TX overnight... Moisture will increase late Wednesday night with upper 60s F dewpoints across the coastal counties south of a warm front. Although capping will exist initially, elevated instability and continued cooling aloft may support scattered elevated thunderstorms. The primary concern here will be hail as instability increases to over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear becomes favorable. The threat appears highly conditional as storm coverage may be meager. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts Texas and western Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from eastern Ontario into ME. Farther south, a southern-stream jet will extend from Mexico across much of the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, with an embedded shortwave trough sweeping across northern Mexico and NM through 00Z. This wave will emerge into far western TX by 12Z Thursday, with moderate southwest flow aloft across much of TX. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist with this wave with -20 C at 500 mb into the TX Panhandle, and -16 C toward southeast TX where shortwave ridging will occur. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast, with initial low-level moisture return into far southern TX during the day. A trough will develop with strong heating near the NM/TX border, with a east-west oriented front stalling over northern OK and AR. ...TX Panhandle into northwest OK... Strong surface heating combined with cooling aloft will result in very steep lapse rates across the region, although moisture will be limited. Still, a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is forecast in the vicinity of the surface trough. Lift associated with the approaching trough and sufficient surface convergence should yield scattered storms by late afternoon, from the TX Panhandle into western OK. Inverted-V type profiles will support locally strong gusts, while cold temperatures aloft and lengthy mid to upper hodographs support primarily sub-severe hail, although an isolated 1.00" report is possible. ...Southeast TX overnight... Moisture will increase late Wednesday night with upper 60s F dewpoints across the coastal counties south of a warm front. Although capping will exist initially, elevated instability and continued cooling aloft may support scattered elevated thunderstorms. The primary concern here will be hail as instability increases to over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear becomes favorable. The threat appears highly conditional as storm coverage may be meager. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts Texas and western Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from eastern Ontario into ME. Farther south, a southern-stream jet will extend from Mexico across much of the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, with an embedded shortwave trough sweeping across northern Mexico and NM through 00Z. This wave will emerge into far western TX by 12Z Thursday, with moderate southwest flow aloft across much of TX. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist with this wave with -20 C at 500 mb into the TX Panhandle, and -16 C toward southeast TX where shortwave ridging will occur. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast, with initial low-level moisture return into far southern TX during the day. A trough will develop with strong heating near the NM/TX border, with a east-west oriented front stalling over northern OK and AR. ...TX Panhandle into northwest OK... Strong surface heating combined with cooling aloft will result in very steep lapse rates across the region, although moisture will be limited. Still, a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is forecast in the vicinity of the surface trough. Lift associated with the approaching trough and sufficient surface convergence should yield scattered storms by late afternoon, from the TX Panhandle into western OK. Inverted-V type profiles will support locally strong gusts, while cold temperatures aloft and lengthy mid to upper hodographs support primarily sub-severe hail, although an isolated 1.00" report is possible. ...Southeast TX overnight... Moisture will increase late Wednesday night with upper 60s F dewpoints across the coastal counties south of a warm front. Although capping will exist initially, elevated instability and continued cooling aloft may support scattered elevated thunderstorms. The primary concern here will be hail as instability increases to over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear becomes favorable. The threat appears highly conditional as storm coverage may be meager. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT... ...SUMMARY... A few clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts Texas and western Oklahoma late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Some of this activity may pose a marginal hail or gusty wind risk. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a large area of cyclonic flow aloft will extend from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with an upper low moving from eastern Ontario into ME. Farther south, a southern-stream jet will extend from Mexico across much of the Southeast and Gulf Of Mexico, with an embedded shortwave trough sweeping across northern Mexico and NM through 00Z. This wave will emerge into far western TX by 12Z Thursday, with moderate southwest flow aloft across much of TX. Cool midlevel temperatures will exist with this wave with -20 C at 500 mb into the TX Panhandle, and -16 C toward southeast TX where shortwave ridging will occur. At the surface, high pressure will exist over the Southeast, with initial low-level moisture return into far southern TX during the day. A trough will develop with strong heating near the NM/TX border, with a east-west oriented front stalling over northern OK and AR. ...TX Panhandle into northwest OK... Strong surface heating combined with cooling aloft will result in very steep lapse rates across the region, although moisture will be limited. Still, a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE is forecast in the vicinity of the surface trough. Lift associated with the approaching trough and sufficient surface convergence should yield scattered storms by late afternoon, from the TX Panhandle into western OK. Inverted-V type profiles will support locally strong gusts, while cold temperatures aloft and lengthy mid to upper hodographs support primarily sub-severe hail, although an isolated 1.00" report is possible. ...Southeast TX overnight... Moisture will increase late Wednesday night with upper 60s F dewpoints across the coastal counties south of a warm front. Although capping will exist initially, elevated instability and continued cooling aloft may support scattered elevated thunderstorms. The primary concern here will be hail as instability increases to over 1500 J/kg and deep-layer shear becomes favorable. The threat appears highly conditional as storm coverage may be meager. ..Jewell.. 03/19/2024 Read more