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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... The western periphery of a mid-level trough will overspread the southern High Plains tomorrow/Wednesday, encouraging weak surface low development and deep-layer northwesterly flow over portions of southeastern New Mexico into western Texas. Dry downslope winds should occur west of the surface low, promoting some wildfire-spread potential given modestly receptive fuels. By afternoon peak heating, northwesterly sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph will coincide with 10-15 percent RH for at least a few hours Wednesday afternoon. Since fuel ERCs are only around the 50th percentile, Elevated highlights have been introduced. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ..Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0305 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 62... FOR MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN ALABAMA...FAR EASTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0305 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024 Areas affected...Mississippi...Western Alabama...Far Eastern Louisiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 62... Valid 260453Z - 260700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 62 continues. SUMMARY...A wind damage and isolated tornado threat is expected to continue for a couple more hours across parts of eastern and south-central Mississippi. Weather watch issuance may be needed later tonight in parts of far southern Mississippi and southern Alabama. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS ongoing from east-central into southern Mississippi, with a few embedded strong to severe storms. The northern half of the line is in very weak instability with the RAP showing MLCAPE generally below 250 J/kg. An isolated wind-damage threat may persist before the northern part of the line moves into western Alabama, where the airmass is relatively stable. Farther to the south-southwest, the airmass is more unstable across parts of southeastern Mississippi, with the RAP suggesting MLCAPE is in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings after midnight in southeast Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 65 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 500 m2/s2. As the line moves eastward across southeast Mississippi over the next few hours, this environment could support an isolated tornado threat. Damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the more intense sections of the line. ..Broyles.. 03/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 33368874 32598932 31849008 31389055 30769072 30538997 30718886 32458768 33258761 33568799 33578831 33368874 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across parts of north Florida and north-central Texas. Severe hail and occasional damaging winds should be the main threats across both areas. ...North Florida... The southern portion of an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Wednesday morning along a pre-frontal convergence zone over parts of north FL and coastal GA. This activity should hinder the development of appreciable instability through much of the day as the southern-stream upper trough approaches from the west. Still, some diurnal heating should occur on the southern flank of the morning activity. This will aid the development of weak to locally moderate instability by Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL. Gradually strengthening mid-level west-southwesterly flow through the day should also foster moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting convective organization. There should be a narrow spatial area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential Wednesday afternoon across parts of north FL, assuming sufficient destabilization occurs. Overall thunderstorm coverage will probably remain isolated to perhaps widely scattered. But, the strongest cores may be capable of producing isolated, marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging winds before moving off the Atlantic Coast. ...North-Central Texas... Ample daytime heating should occur through Wednesday afternoon across TX, on the backside of a southern-stream upper trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft are forecast to be present across the much of the southern Plains. As the boundary layer warms and becomes well mixed, most guidance shows weak instability (around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE) developing along/east of a weak surface trough. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain quite limited due to a recent frontal passage, there appears to be enough instability to support at least isolated thunderstorm development across parts of north-central TX and vicinity Wednesday afternoon. Given the well-mixed boundary layer, occasional strong to severe winds may occur with the more robust downdrafts. Isolated severe hail also appears possible, as around 25-35 kt of deep-layer supports some updraft organization. This marginal hail/wind threat should subside Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon across parts of the Midwest and southern Great Lakes and across portions of the central Gulf Coast today. ...OH Valley/Southern Lower MI... A potent deep-layer cyclone over the Midwest will continue northeast during the day over parts of the Upper Great Lakes. Concurrently, a surface low will occlude while a trailing frontal zone extends southward into the OH Valley. Ahead of the front, a warm conveyor will promote widespread clouds and scattered showers over the OH Valley northward into Lower MI. A plume of moderately steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (near 7 deg C/km) are forecast to protrude northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the southern Great Lakes during the day, in wake of the early clouds/rain. Cloud breaks will foster some diurnal heating with temperatures likely warmer (into the mid 50s to lower 60s) than the cool-biased NAM model depiction. Shallow convection is forecast to deepen near the front with thunderstorms gradually intensifying as the airmass becomes weakly unstable (100-300 J/kg MUCAPE). Although the 0-3km shear vector will be oriented mostly parallel to the front and resulting convection, convection-allowing models generally show an elongated low-topped thunderstorm band from IN/OH northward into Lower MI during the afternoon. Given the strength of background flow fields and the potentially adequate steepening of lapse rates immediately preceding the convection, damaging gusts (peaking in the 55-70 mph range) are possible. This activity will likely diminish during the early evening owing to the loss of daytime heating and while encountering weaker instability farther east. ...Southern AL into Southeast GA and the FL Panhandle... Ongoing convective line is expected to extend from central AL into coastal AL and the far western FL Panhandle early this morning. It is unclear whether this activity will pose a severe risk during the morning owing to the diurnal minimum in instability. Nonetheless, the airmass is forecast to destabilize during the day ahead of the line with some strengthening possible, especially during the midday to afternoon period. Damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are the primary hazards with this activity. As upper forcing continues to be displaced from the region, a general waning in both storm organization and intensity is expected as the band of storms moves from the western to central part of the FL Panhandle. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/26/2024 Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LFT TO 20 SSW MCB TO 30 NNW PIB TO 15 W MEI TO 40 S CBM TO 20 ESE CBM. ..LEITMAN..03/26/24 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-103-105-117-260640- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC023-031-035-061-065-067-069-073-075-091-103-109-147-260640- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE MARION NOXUBEE PEARL RIVER WALTHALL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more