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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across north Florida, and also across parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds should be the main hazards for both areas. ...Florida into the Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to gradually move eastward across parts of Florida into the Carolinas on Wednesday, in conjunction with the southern portion of a deep upper-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS. Early-day convection and related cloudiness may tend to limit destabilization, but some diurnal heating along the eastern periphery of the morning convection may support MLCAPE increasing above 1000 J/kg by early afternoon. Favorable deep-layer shear will support potential for a few strong storms through the forecast period, with potential for isolated hail and damaging gusts. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, with some convection lingering through the morning, and later redevelopment possible in areas where stronger heating occurs, and also potentially along the trailing cold front. Farther north, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from southeast GA into the coastal Carolinas vicinity, along/ahead of the cold front. However, there is greater uncertainty regarding potential for destabilization across these areas in the wake of morning convection. If some diurnal heating/destabilization can occur in advance of the front, then an isolated severe threat could eventually evolve, though uncertainty remains too high to include severe probabilities at this time. ...Parts of north into central TX... Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) will support modest diurnal destabilization from north into central TX. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but steep lapse rates could also support isolated strong/damaging gusts. ..Dean.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0129 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and associated cooler air will overspread the Plains states as a mid-level trough and accompanying surface low progress toward the eastern U.S. and Canada today. Generally quiescent fire weather conditions are expected for most of the U.S. One small exception may be portions of western Texas during the afternoon hours, where locally dry and breezy conditions may occur. Nonetheless, wildfire-spread potential should remain localized, since RH may not dip below 20 percent on a widespread basis. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN...EASTERN INDIANA...AND WESTERN OHIO.... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind gusts are possible today over parts of the Lower Michigan/southern Great Lakes region, and the eastern Gulf Coastal Plain. ...FL Panhandle and Vicinity... A surface cold front continues to sag southward across parts of AL and the FL Panhandle. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring along the front (mainly offshore), with occasional updrafts showing some organization. It is expected that the bulk of this activity will remain offshore due to widespread clouds and limited destabilization inland. However, there is some chance of a strong storm or two this afternoon. After dark, most model guidance suggest the frontal convection will strengthen, with a continued risk of a few strong storms into north FL. ...Lower MI/IN/Western OH... A strong cold front is sweeping eastward into western IN late this morning, and will move across Lower MI/IN/western OH through the day. Widespread clouds and meager low-level moisture ahead of the front will limit destabilization, with forecast soundings suggesting the convective layer may remain too shallow to support much lightning. Nevertheless, strong winds just above the surface coupled with cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few strong storms later today, capable of damaging wind gusts. The time period of greatest concern should roughly be from 22-02z. ..Hart/Thornton.. 03/26/2024 Read more