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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM PDT on Saturday. ...Oregon... An upper low near the northern/central CA Pacific Coast will weaken some as it shifts east/southeast over CA/NV on Saturday. Moderate south/southeasterly low to midlevel flow on the northeastern periphery of this system will overspread OR. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will overlap with a plume of midlevel moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings show temperatures warming into the 60s by afternoon, allowing for deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest destabilization is forecast with generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and spread north/northwest into the evening hours. Given ample shear and instability in conjunction with cool temperatures aloft, isolated large hail is possible. Additionally, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support strong gusts with this activity as well. ...Central Plains... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to spread across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a nearly saturated profile in the 600-400 mb layer. A surface trough extending south/southwest across the Plains from a surface low over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will result in some poleward transport of Gulf moisture. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to TX, with generally 40s F dewpoints into KS/NE. Strong heating during the day will likely mix out this scant moisture, limiting instability and overall thunderstorm chances. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates amid the elevated moist layer will foster weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE). Convection may try to develop by late afternoon/early evening, though potential appears very conditional. If a storm can develop, gusty winds are possible given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer. ...Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms are possible during the evening/overnight hours in a northwest flow regime and as a weak shortwave impulse develops southeast from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front and to the cool side of a warm front draped across northern WI/MI. Weak elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE over a shallow layer) will preclude severe potential, though a stronger cell or two could produce small hail. Overall potential/coverage appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... CORRECTED TO REMOVE LESS THAN 2% TORNADO TEXT FROM THE PROBABILITY GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. ..Goss/Bentley.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more