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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana into early evening. A severe storm or two also remains possible across portions of western New England the next few hours. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no changes have been made with the 20z update. For details regarding short term severe potential across portions of the Northwest states, refer to MCD 430. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana into early evening. A severe storm or two also remains possible across portions of western New England the next few hours. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no changes have been made with the 20z update. For details regarding short term severe potential across portions of the Northwest states, refer to MCD 430. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana into early evening. A severe storm or two also remains possible across portions of western New England the next few hours. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no changes have been made with the 20z update. For details regarding short term severe potential across portions of the Northwest states, refer to MCD 430. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana into early evening. A severe storm or two also remains possible across portions of western New England the next few hours. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no changes have been made with the 20z update. For details regarding short term severe potential across portions of the Northwest states, refer to MCD 430. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements. Read more

MD 0430 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA...EASTERN OREGON...FAR WESTERN IDAHO...AND NORTHWEST NEVADA
Mesoscale Discussion 0430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Areas affected...Northeast California...Eastern Oregon...far Western Idaho...and northwest Nevada Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121853Z - 122030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to occasionally severe storms are possible this afternoon from northeast California into eastern Oregon and western Idaho. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed amid weak instability across the higher terrain in northeast California. Additional development is apparent on visible satellite along a differential heating boundary along the edge of the mid-level cloud deck across portions of eastern Oregon. Instability remains quite weak at this time with temperatures only in the 60s. However, temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 60s to low 70s with MLCAPE around 250 to 500 J/kg by later this afternoon. This, combined with around 25 to 30 knots of effective shear, should be sufficient for some organized storms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show very deep mixing (to near 500mb) which will support some severe wind threat. The hail threat will be mostly across eastern Oregon and western Idaho where greater instability and somewhat stronger shear are expected later this afternoon. Given the expectation for isolated coverage of severe storms, no watch is anticipated. ..Bentley/Goss.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MSO...BOI...LKN...PDT...REV...MFR...STO... LAT...LON 39742155 41572219 43892133 45701760 45631615 44971581 42901648 41081785 40051915 39711995 39742155 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0429 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO VERMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 0429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Areas affected...northeastern New York into Vermont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121545Z - 121815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon from northeastern New York into Vermont. A brief/weak tornado or locally strong gusts will be possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows areas of clearing, which is allowing for relatively warm conditions to develop. Surface temperatures are already in the upper 60s F, which is warmer than several models indicate. This has led to the development of several hundred J/kg SBCAPE. Area VWPs show 0-1 SRH over 200 m2/s2, which is quite supportive of rotation within storms. This, along with a relatively high RH boundary layer, and lift ahead of the front/surface trough, suggest an uptick in at least low-topped thunderstorm coverage may occur. Whether individual cells form, or north-south line segments, storms may acquire sufficient low-level rotation for a brief tornado risk, within a small zone where heating is most prominent. ..Jewell/Goss.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 45097269 44307266 43717273 43307281 42947306 42647368 42677394 42947410 43607406 44207403 44857413 45047420 45097269 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM PDT on Saturday. ...Oregon... An upper low near the northern/central CA Pacific Coast will weaken some as it shifts east/southeast over CA/NV on Saturday. Moderate south/southeasterly low to midlevel flow on the northeastern periphery of this system will overspread OR. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will overlap with a plume of midlevel moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings show temperatures warming into the 60s by afternoon, allowing for deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest destabilization is forecast with generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and spread north/northwest into the evening hours. Given ample shear and instability in conjunction with cool temperatures aloft, isolated large hail is possible. Additionally, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support strong gusts with this activity as well. ...Central Plains... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to spread across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a nearly saturated profile in the 600-400 mb layer. A surface trough extending south/southwest across the Plains from a surface low over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will result in some poleward transport of Gulf moisture. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to TX, with generally 40s F dewpoints into KS/NE. Strong heating during the day will likely mix out this scant moisture, limiting instability and overall thunderstorm chances. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates amid the elevated moist layer will foster weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE). Convection may try to develop by late afternoon/early evening, though potential appears very conditional. If a storm can develop, gusty winds are possible given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer. ...Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms are possible during the evening/overnight hours in a northwest flow regime and as a weak shortwave impulse develops southeast from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front and to the cool side of a warm front draped across northern WI/MI. Weak elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE over a shallow layer) will preclude severe potential, though a stronger cell or two could produce small hail. Overall potential/coverage appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM PDT on Saturday. ...Oregon... An upper low near the northern/central CA Pacific Coast will weaken some as it shifts east/southeast over CA/NV on Saturday. Moderate south/southeasterly low to midlevel flow on the northeastern periphery of this system will overspread OR. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will overlap with a plume of midlevel moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings show temperatures warming into the 60s by afternoon, allowing for deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest destabilization is forecast with generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and spread north/northwest into the evening hours. Given ample shear and instability in conjunction with cool temperatures aloft, isolated large hail is possible. Additionally, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support strong gusts with this activity as well. ...Central Plains... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to spread across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a nearly saturated profile in the 600-400 mb layer. A surface trough extending south/southwest across the Plains from a surface low over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will result in some poleward transport of Gulf moisture. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to TX, with generally 40s F dewpoints into KS/NE. Strong heating during the day will likely mix out this scant moisture, limiting instability and overall thunderstorm chances. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates amid the elevated moist layer will foster weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE). Convection may try to develop by late afternoon/early evening, though potential appears very conditional. If a storm can develop, gusty winds are possible given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer. ...Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms are possible during the evening/overnight hours in a northwest flow regime and as a weak shortwave impulse develops southeast from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front and to the cool side of a warm front draped across northern WI/MI. Weak elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE over a shallow layer) will preclude severe potential, though a stronger cell or two could produce small hail. Overall potential/coverage appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM PDT on Saturday. ...Oregon... An upper low near the northern/central CA Pacific Coast will weaken some as it shifts east/southeast over CA/NV on Saturday. Moderate south/southeasterly low to midlevel flow on the northeastern periphery of this system will overspread OR. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will overlap with a plume of midlevel moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings show temperatures warming into the 60s by afternoon, allowing for deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest destabilization is forecast with generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and spread north/northwest into the evening hours. Given ample shear and instability in conjunction with cool temperatures aloft, isolated large hail is possible. Additionally, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support strong gusts with this activity as well. ...Central Plains... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to spread across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a nearly saturated profile in the 600-400 mb layer. A surface trough extending south/southwest across the Plains from a surface low over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will result in some poleward transport of Gulf moisture. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to TX, with generally 40s F dewpoints into KS/NE. Strong heating during the day will likely mix out this scant moisture, limiting instability and overall thunderstorm chances. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates amid the elevated moist layer will foster weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE). Convection may try to develop by late afternoon/early evening, though potential appears very conditional. If a storm can develop, gusty winds are possible given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer. ...Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms are possible during the evening/overnight hours in a northwest flow regime and as a weak shortwave impulse develops southeast from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front and to the cool side of a warm front draped across northern WI/MI. Weak elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE over a shallow layer) will preclude severe potential, though a stronger cell or two could produce small hail. Overall potential/coverage appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM PDT on Saturday. ...Oregon... An upper low near the northern/central CA Pacific Coast will weaken some as it shifts east/southeast over CA/NV on Saturday. Moderate south/southeasterly low to midlevel flow on the northeastern periphery of this system will overspread OR. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will overlap with a plume of midlevel moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings show temperatures warming into the 60s by afternoon, allowing for deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest destabilization is forecast with generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and spread north/northwest into the evening hours. Given ample shear and instability in conjunction with cool temperatures aloft, isolated large hail is possible. Additionally, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support strong gusts with this activity as well. ...Central Plains... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to spread across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a nearly saturated profile in the 600-400 mb layer. A surface trough extending south/southwest across the Plains from a surface low over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will result in some poleward transport of Gulf moisture. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to TX, with generally 40s F dewpoints into KS/NE. Strong heating during the day will likely mix out this scant moisture, limiting instability and overall thunderstorm chances. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates amid the elevated moist layer will foster weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE). Convection may try to develop by late afternoon/early evening, though potential appears very conditional. If a storm can develop, gusty winds are possible given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer. ...Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms are possible during the evening/overnight hours in a northwest flow regime and as a weak shortwave impulse develops southeast from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front and to the cool side of a warm front draped across northern WI/MI. Weak elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE over a shallow layer) will preclude severe potential, though a stronger cell or two could produce small hail. Overall potential/coverage appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM PDT on Saturday. ...Oregon... An upper low near the northern/central CA Pacific Coast will weaken some as it shifts east/southeast over CA/NV on Saturday. Moderate south/southeasterly low to midlevel flow on the northeastern periphery of this system will overspread OR. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will overlap with a plume of midlevel moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings show temperatures warming into the 60s by afternoon, allowing for deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest destabilization is forecast with generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and spread north/northwest into the evening hours. Given ample shear and instability in conjunction with cool temperatures aloft, isolated large hail is possible. Additionally, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support strong gusts with this activity as well. ...Central Plains... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to spread across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a nearly saturated profile in the 600-400 mb layer. A surface trough extending south/southwest across the Plains from a surface low over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will result in some poleward transport of Gulf moisture. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to TX, with generally 40s F dewpoints into KS/NE. Strong heating during the day will likely mix out this scant moisture, limiting instability and overall thunderstorm chances. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates amid the elevated moist layer will foster weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE). Convection may try to develop by late afternoon/early evening, though potential appears very conditional. If a storm can develop, gusty winds are possible given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer. ...Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms are possible during the evening/overnight hours in a northwest flow regime and as a weak shortwave impulse develops southeast from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front and to the cool side of a warm front draped across northern WI/MI. Weak elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE over a shallow layer) will preclude severe potential, though a stronger cell or two could produce small hail. Overall potential/coverage appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM PDT on Saturday. ...Oregon... An upper low near the northern/central CA Pacific Coast will weaken some as it shifts east/southeast over CA/NV on Saturday. Moderate south/southeasterly low to midlevel flow on the northeastern periphery of this system will overspread OR. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will overlap with a plume of midlevel moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings show temperatures warming into the 60s by afternoon, allowing for deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest destabilization is forecast with generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and spread north/northwest into the evening hours. Given ample shear and instability in conjunction with cool temperatures aloft, isolated large hail is possible. Additionally, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support strong gusts with this activity as well. ...Central Plains... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to spread across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a nearly saturated profile in the 600-400 mb layer. A surface trough extending south/southwest across the Plains from a surface low over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will result in some poleward transport of Gulf moisture. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to TX, with generally 40s F dewpoints into KS/NE. Strong heating during the day will likely mix out this scant moisture, limiting instability and overall thunderstorm chances. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates amid the elevated moist layer will foster weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE). Convection may try to develop by late afternoon/early evening, though potential appears very conditional. If a storm can develop, gusty winds are possible given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer. ...Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms are possible during the evening/overnight hours in a northwest flow regime and as a weak shortwave impulse develops southeast from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front and to the cool side of a warm front draped across northern WI/MI. Weak elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE over a shallow layer) will preclude severe potential, though a stronger cell or two could produce small hail. Overall potential/coverage appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and strong gusts are possible across central Oregon between about 2 to 8 PM PDT on Saturday. ...Oregon... An upper low near the northern/central CA Pacific Coast will weaken some as it shifts east/southeast over CA/NV on Saturday. Moderate south/southeasterly low to midlevel flow on the northeastern periphery of this system will overspread OR. Effective shear magnitudes around 30-40 kt will overlap with a plume of midlevel moisture and steep midlevel lapse rates. Forecast soundings show temperatures warming into the 60s by afternoon, allowing for deep boundary-layer mixing beneath the steep midlevel lapse rates. Modest destabilization is forecast with generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE expected. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon and spread north/northwest into the evening hours. Given ample shear and instability in conjunction with cool temperatures aloft, isolated large hail is possible. Additionally, inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles may support strong gusts with this activity as well. ...Central Plains... A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to spread across the central Plains during the afternoon/evening. Thermodynamic profiles indicate a nearly saturated profile in the 600-400 mb layer. A surface trough extending south/southwest across the Plains from a surface low over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest will result in some poleward transport of Gulf moisture. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to TX, with generally 40s F dewpoints into KS/NE. Strong heating during the day will likely mix out this scant moisture, limiting instability and overall thunderstorm chances. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates amid the elevated moist layer will foster weak instability (generally less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE). Convection may try to develop by late afternoon/early evening, though potential appears very conditional. If a storm can develop, gusty winds are possible given the deeply mixed/dry boundary-layer. ...Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms are possible during the evening/overnight hours in a northwest flow regime and as a weak shortwave impulse develops southeast from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes. Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop in a warm advection regime ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front and to the cool side of a warm front draped across northern WI/MI. Weak elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE over a shallow layer) will preclude severe potential, though a stronger cell or two could produce small hail. Overall potential/coverage appears too low for severe probabilities. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 Read more