Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The critical area has been expanded based on the latest guidance. RH in the single digits appears likely for a broad portion of the regions. The potential for extremely critical fire weather remains across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and parts of western Kansas. Duration of these conditions will be the primary uncertainty as the most favorable overlap of synoptic features may only be brief. There is some potential for elevated fire weather in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota. Dry air is in place in the upper Midwest and winds will increase ahead of a lifting warm front prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels (drier fuels exist to the southwest), the threat may remain localized. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The critical area has been expanded based on the latest guidance. RH in the single digits appears likely for a broad portion of the regions. The potential for extremely critical fire weather remains across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and parts of western Kansas. Duration of these conditions will be the primary uncertainty as the most favorable overlap of synoptic features may only be brief. There is some potential for elevated fire weather in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota. Dry air is in place in the upper Midwest and winds will increase ahead of a lifting warm front prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels (drier fuels exist to the southwest), the threat may remain localized. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The critical area has been expanded based on the latest guidance. RH in the single digits appears likely for a broad portion of the regions. The potential for extremely critical fire weather remains across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and parts of western Kansas. Duration of these conditions will be the primary uncertainty as the most favorable overlap of synoptic features may only be brief. There is some potential for elevated fire weather in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota. Dry air is in place in the upper Midwest and winds will increase ahead of a lifting warm front prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels (drier fuels exist to the southwest), the threat may remain localized. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The critical area has been expanded based on the latest guidance. RH in the single digits appears likely for a broad portion of the regions. The potential for extremely critical fire weather remains across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and parts of western Kansas. Duration of these conditions will be the primary uncertainty as the most favorable overlap of synoptic features may only be brief. There is some potential for elevated fire weather in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota. Dry air is in place in the upper Midwest and winds will increase ahead of a lifting warm front prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels (drier fuels exist to the southwest), the threat may remain localized. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The critical area has been expanded based on the latest guidance. RH in the single digits appears likely for a broad portion of the regions. The potential for extremely critical fire weather remains across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and parts of western Kansas. Duration of these conditions will be the primary uncertainty as the most favorable overlap of synoptic features may only be brief. There is some potential for elevated fire weather in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota. Dry air is in place in the upper Midwest and winds will increase ahead of a lifting warm front prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels (drier fuels exist to the southwest), the threat may remain localized. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The critical area has been expanded based on the latest guidance. RH in the single digits appears likely for a broad portion of the regions. The potential for extremely critical fire weather remains across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and parts of western Kansas. Duration of these conditions will be the primary uncertainty as the most favorable overlap of synoptic features may only be brief. There is some potential for elevated fire weather in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota. Dry air is in place in the upper Midwest and winds will increase ahead of a lifting warm front prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels (drier fuels exist to the southwest), the threat may remain localized. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The critical area has been expanded based on the latest guidance. RH in the single digits appears likely for a broad portion of the regions. The potential for extremely critical fire weather remains across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado and parts of western Kansas. Duration of these conditions will be the primary uncertainty as the most favorable overlap of synoptic features may only be brief. There is some potential for elevated fire weather in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota. Dry air is in place in the upper Midwest and winds will increase ahead of a lifting warm front prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels (drier fuels exist to the southwest), the threat may remain localized. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the southern and central Rockies D2/Monday. As large-scale ascent from the approaching upper low and jet streak move over the Plains, a lee low should quickly emerge and begin to rapidly deepen over central High Plains. Surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft will aid in developing strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will set the stage for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions D2/Monday. ...High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to near 10% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridor for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and the low-level thermal ridge may support occasional surface wind gusts in excess of 50 mph and single digit RH for a few hours during the afternoon. While critical fire-weather concerns are likely over a broad area, substantial uncertainty is present with the eastward extent of fire-weather concerns. NWP guidance, with relation to the position of the dryline, has shown large errors in recent weeks and spread among various solutions remains large. Further refinement of the eastern edge of the Elevated and Critical areas is likely needed in future outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS...AND PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly Monday evening and night. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadic storms are possible. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the Great Basin at the start of the period is forecast to shift east toward -- and eventually into -- the central Plains region through the period. As this occurs, lee cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains by Monday afternoon, and drift east along the KS/NE border through 12Z Tuesday. Low-level moisture modification from the northwest Gulf, while sufficient for severe storms, will not be overly rich or deep beneath a stout elevated mixed layer. Mid 60s surface dew points should become common over the southern Great Plains ahead of the dryline by evening with upper 50s to low 60s reaching northward into the central Plains. ...Central/southern Plains... Late afternoon to early evening thunderstorm development is expected as diurnal heating and broad large-scale ascent aids in weakening of capping in place across much of the warm sector. Fairly widespread development of storms is expected across the central High Plains and arcing east-southeast along the surface warm front into the Mid-Missouri Valley. Boundary-layer moisture will decrease with northwest extent, but favorable deep-layer ascent within a favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow field will support organized/rotating storms capable of producing large hail and isolated severe wind gusts. Given the very steep lapse rates aloft, very large hail appears likely across parts of central and eastern Nebraska and portions of northeastern Kansas, near and north of the surface warm front, largely after dark as the upper low approaches. Additionally, the possibility of a few surface-based supercells with a tornado/wind threat in addition to large hail will be possible with any warm-sector/surface-based storms. A separate corridor of a few diurnal storms should form in west TX along the dryline within the deeply mixed air. Stout capping should limit storm coverage, but any storm which can develop would become supercellular, with large hail and damaging wind likely. Mid-level height falls and tropospheric flow fields will increase into Monday night, which should result in greater convective development overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. Given uncertainty as to where greatest storm coverage will ultimately evolve, the ENH risk area may need to be adjusted in later forecasts. ...VA/NC... A weakening surface cold front should sag south in VA on Monday. Strong heating of a modestly moist boundary layer near and just south of the front will yield a fairly deep surface-based mixed layer. Low-level convergence should be sufficient for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across southern Virginia by late afternoon. Amply strong flow aloft is expected across the area on the southern fringe of the stronger mid-level jet to the north. Amid steep mid-level lapse rates, overall setup should support a few multicell clusters of storms, capable of marginally severe hail initially, and locally damaging wind gusts as storms spread southeast before weakening later in the evening. ..Goss.. 04/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level cyclone is forecast to intensify and slowly drift southeastward into the Great Basin Today. To the south, strong mid-level flow from an enhanced subtropical jet will move into the Desert Southwest. As strong wind fields overspread the western CONUS, lee cyclogenesis is forecast to begin over the central Rockies. Strong surface wind fields over the Intermountain west will slowly move into the southern High Plains behind the lee trough. Low humidity and increasing winds will likely support elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southern High Plains... As the upper low consolidates over the western CONUS, strong flow aloft will begin to overspread the southern Rockies and High Plains. The lee trough is forecast to slowly deepen into a surface low over northeastern CO by late in the afternoon. With the deepening lee trough and increasing flow aloft, gusty southwest surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely over parts of southeastern NM into west/Southwest TX. Warm temperatures and deep mixing behind the lee trough should also encourage dry surface conditions with diurnal RH minimums below 15%. With area fuels receptive to fire spread a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. More localized fire-weather conditions are possible farther north into southern CO. However, flow aloft will be somewhat delayed here keeping gusty winds more localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more