Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated to scattered large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are evident on D4/Thursday from the Ozark Plateau into central TX. Low probability severe may persist into D5-6, mainly across parts of TX, with severe potential appearing negligible around D7-8. A northern-stream mid/upper trough should shift east from the Northwest into the Upper Midwest on D4. A more piecemeal eastward evolution is progged into the weekend amid multiple embedded impulses. The southern stream is expected to remain relatively weak and quasi-zonal, although there are indications of lower-amplitude impulses migrating through the flow. The best potential for severe appears focused on D4. Both the 00Z NAM/ECMWF hint at elevated convection developing across the central Great Plains late D3 on Thursday morning within a strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection regime south of the trough shifting into the Upper Midwest. Robust diabatic heating is expected in the warm-moist sector over the southern Great Plains, with the largest buoyancy so far this week ahead of the dryline in TX. As surface ridging noses down the High Plains, a lee cyclone will be forced east-southeast into OK as a developing frontal wave. Above-average agreement exists across guidance with surface-based convective development along both the southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone and dryline. Primary uncertainty with southern extent is the degree of deep-layer shear as wind profiles appear weak to modest over most of the larger buoyancy plume. Have delineated a 15 percent area where potential for a few supercells and multicell clusters is evident on Thursday afternoon, with an implied lower severe probability extending farther southwest through much of central TX. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Isolated to scattered large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are evident on D4/Thursday from the Ozark Plateau into central TX. Low probability severe may persist into D5-6, mainly across parts of TX, with severe potential appearing negligible around D7-8. A northern-stream mid/upper trough should shift east from the Northwest into the Upper Midwest on D4. A more piecemeal eastward evolution is progged into the weekend amid multiple embedded impulses. The southern stream is expected to remain relatively weak and quasi-zonal, although there are indications of lower-amplitude impulses migrating through the flow. The best potential for severe appears focused on D4. Both the 00Z NAM/ECMWF hint at elevated convection developing across the central Great Plains late D3 on Thursday morning within a strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection regime south of the trough shifting into the Upper Midwest. Robust diabatic heating is expected in the warm-moist sector over the southern Great Plains, with the largest buoyancy so far this week ahead of the dryline in TX. As surface ridging noses down the High Plains, a lee cyclone will be forced east-southeast into OK as a developing frontal wave. Above-average agreement exists across guidance with surface-based convective development along both the southwest/northeast-oriented baroclinic zone and dryline. Primary uncertainty with southern extent is the degree of deep-layer shear as wind profiles appear weak to modest over most of the larger buoyancy plume. Have delineated a 15 percent area where potential for a few supercells and multicell clusters is evident on Thursday afternoon, with an implied lower severe probability extending farther southwest through much of central TX. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. ...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South... Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. ...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South... Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. ...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South... Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley into the Mid-South. ...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South... Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east. The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of critical conditions is uncertain. ...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend... As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely given widespread dry fuels. Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this threat will be brief and localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central High Plains... As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low, falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should the dryline mix farther east. ...Missouri Valley... Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain localized. ..Lyons.. 04/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located over central NE at 12Z Tuesday. This cyclone should gradually progress eastward and slowly weaken in IA Tuesday night. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS Valley by afternoon, before pronounced dampening occurs as it shifts east across the Mid-South to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented dryline/Pacific cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion stalling by late afternoon before reaching the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... A broad spectrum of potential outcomes is evident ranging from mainly a large hail and few tornadoes day to a more substantial tornadic threat. The degree of tornado threat will be dependent on multiple uncertainties becoming more resolved, with the hail forecast the more confident of the three hazards. Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Evening guidance varies in the degree of warm-conveyor convection that should be ongoing and how it evolves through midday, with the 00Z HRRR notably more aggressive. This early-day activity will have impacts on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the dryline/cold front. At the other end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAM and NAM-NEST suggest a more substantial gap will occur between the warm conveyor activity and afternoon redevelopment along the dryline/front. Other guidance is somewhere in between these two scenarios, and even the HRRR does indicate isolated redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. Confidence is high that pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur behind the surface front and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon. Backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. The NAM has been consistently farther west with the placement of the front by late afternoon with most guidance mixing the boundary more aggressively east in IA/MO. ...Mid-South... NCEP guidance is highly insistent that convective coverage should be isolated at best and is substantially less than indicated by the ECMWF. This appears to be related to a lack of more pronounced boundary-layer heating, but also due to fairly warm and very dry mid-level profiles to the south side of the intense but eventually weakening mid-level jet. With the surface front stalling or even advancing back west late, large-scale ascent appears to be weak outside of low-level warm theta-e advection. As such, have begun reducing probabilities from south to north. Still, the deep-layer shear profile and rich boundary-layer moisture will conditionally support supercell potential during the period. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located over central NE at 12Z Tuesday. This cyclone should gradually progress eastward and slowly weaken in IA Tuesday night. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS Valley by afternoon, before pronounced dampening occurs as it shifts east across the Mid-South to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented dryline/Pacific cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion stalling by late afternoon before reaching the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... A broad spectrum of potential outcomes is evident ranging from mainly a large hail and few tornadoes day to a more substantial tornadic threat. The degree of tornado threat will be dependent on multiple uncertainties becoming more resolved, with the hail forecast the more confident of the three hazards. Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Evening guidance varies in the degree of warm-conveyor convection that should be ongoing and how it evolves through midday, with the 00Z HRRR notably more aggressive. This early-day activity will have impacts on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the dryline/cold front. At the other end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAM and NAM-NEST suggest a more substantial gap will occur between the warm conveyor activity and afternoon redevelopment along the dryline/front. Other guidance is somewhere in between these two scenarios, and even the HRRR does indicate isolated redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. Confidence is high that pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur behind the surface front and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon. Backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. The NAM has been consistently farther west with the placement of the front by late afternoon with most guidance mixing the boundary more aggressively east in IA/MO. ...Mid-South... NCEP guidance is highly insistent that convective coverage should be isolated at best and is substantially less than indicated by the ECMWF. This appears to be related to a lack of more pronounced boundary-layer heating, but also due to fairly warm and very dry mid-level profiles to the south side of the intense but eventually weakening mid-level jet. With the surface front stalling or even advancing back west late, large-scale ascent appears to be weak outside of low-level warm theta-e advection. As such, have begun reducing probabilities from south to north. Still, the deep-layer shear profile and rich boundary-layer moisture will conditionally support supercell potential during the period. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located over central NE at 12Z Tuesday. This cyclone should gradually progress eastward and slowly weaken in IA Tuesday night. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS Valley by afternoon, before pronounced dampening occurs as it shifts east across the Mid-South to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented dryline/Pacific cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion stalling by late afternoon before reaching the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... A broad spectrum of potential outcomes is evident ranging from mainly a large hail and few tornadoes day to a more substantial tornadic threat. The degree of tornado threat will be dependent on multiple uncertainties becoming more resolved, with the hail forecast the more confident of the three hazards. Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Evening guidance varies in the degree of warm-conveyor convection that should be ongoing and how it evolves through midday, with the 00Z HRRR notably more aggressive. This early-day activity will have impacts on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the dryline/cold front. At the other end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAM and NAM-NEST suggest a more substantial gap will occur between the warm conveyor activity and afternoon redevelopment along the dryline/front. Other guidance is somewhere in between these two scenarios, and even the HRRR does indicate isolated redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. Confidence is high that pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur behind the surface front and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon. Backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. The NAM has been consistently farther west with the placement of the front by late afternoon with most guidance mixing the boundary more aggressively east in IA/MO. ...Mid-South... NCEP guidance is highly insistent that convective coverage should be isolated at best and is substantially less than indicated by the ECMWF. This appears to be related to a lack of more pronounced boundary-layer heating, but also due to fairly warm and very dry mid-level profiles to the south side of the intense but eventually weakening mid-level jet. With the surface front stalling or even advancing back west late, large-scale ascent appears to be weak outside of low-level warm theta-e advection. As such, have begun reducing probabilities from south to north. Still, the deep-layer shear profile and rich boundary-layer moisture will conditionally support supercell potential during the period. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA...NORTHERN MO...AND WEST-CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from Tuesday morning into the evening across a portion of the central states from the Corn Belt to the Ozark Plateau. The most concentrated area of significant severe hail and tornado potential is forecast over southern Iowa into northern Missouri and west-central Illinois. ...Synopsis... A seasonably deep surface cyclone should be located over central NE at 12Z Tuesday. This cyclone should gradually progress eastward and slowly weaken in IA Tuesday night. An initially intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts) should become centered from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-MS Valley by afternoon, before pronounced dampening occurs as it shifts east across the Mid-South to Lower OH Valleys. The initially north/south-oriented dryline/Pacific cold front to the south of the surface cyclone will progress into the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z Wednesday, with its trailing portion stalling by late afternoon before reaching the Ark-La-Tex. ...Corn Belt/Lower MO and Mid-MS Valleys... A broad spectrum of potential outcomes is evident ranging from mainly a large hail and few tornadoes day to a more substantial tornadic threat. The degree of tornado threat will be dependent on multiple uncertainties becoming more resolved, with the hail forecast the more confident of the three hazards. Within the left-exit region of the aforementioned mid-level jet, a synoptically favorable corridor for mid-afternoon to early evening supercells is evident. Evening guidance varies in the degree of warm-conveyor convection that should be ongoing and how it evolves through midday, with the 00Z HRRR notably more aggressive. This early-day activity will have impacts on the degree of boundary-layer destabilization ahead of the dryline/cold front. At the other end of the spectrum, the 00Z NAM and NAM-NEST suggest a more substantial gap will occur between the warm conveyor activity and afternoon redevelopment along the dryline/front. Other guidance is somewhere in between these two scenarios, and even the HRRR does indicate isolated redevelopment occurring by late afternoon. Confidence is high that pronounced boundary-layer heating will occur behind the surface front and a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates attendant to the shortwave trough will overspread the northwest portion of the surface warm/moist sector during the afternoon. Backed low-level flow and veering of the wind profile with height should support supercells capable of producing significant severe hail and tornadoes. The NAM has been consistently farther west with the placement of the front by late afternoon with most guidance mixing the boundary more aggressively east in IA/MO. ...Mid-South... NCEP guidance is highly insistent that convective coverage should be isolated at best and is substantially less than indicated by the ECMWF. This appears to be related to a lack of more pronounced boundary-layer heating, but also due to fairly warm and very dry mid-level profiles to the south side of the intense but eventually weakening mid-level jet. With the surface front stalling or even advancing back west late, large-scale ascent appears to be weak outside of low-level warm theta-e advection. As such, have begun reducing probabilities from south to north. Still, the deep-layer shear profile and rich boundary-layer moisture will conditionally support supercell potential during the period. ..Grams.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...AND KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern to central Great Plains, mainly this evening and into tonight. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible. More isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for mainly damaging winds and hail. ...Synopsis... An upper low over the western Great Basin is forecast to amplify considerably as it begins to phase with an increasingly strong mid-level subtropical jet located over the Southwestern US. Early morning WV imagery and RAOBS show this jet is currently moving out of northern MEX into southern AZ and NM. As the upper low and jet amplify, they will move eastward and spread broad-scale ascent over much of the southern and central High Plains late in the diurnal cycle. At the same time, a subtle mid-level perturbation east of the building central US ridge will move south overspreading a modestly warm air mass near a slowly sagging cold front in the Mid Atlantic. An initially diffuse lee trough/weak cyclone is forecast to quickly consolidate and deepen below 1000 mb over eastern CO and western NE by late afternoon. Large-scale mass response from the approaching trough and deepening low will aid in advecting a fairly broad and increasingly moist (mid 60s F surface dewpoints) modified Gulf air mass northward, east of a sharp dryline. While some uncertainty exists regarding convective initiation owing to the late arrival of large-scale ascent, mid and high-level cloud cover and capping, scattered severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible over much of the Plains. Isolated storms are also possible over parts of the OH Valley and Mid Atlantic with a risk for damaging gusts. ...Central Plains Triple Point/Warm Front... A well defined warm front is expected to mark the northern edge of the ongoing moisture return near the KS/NE border at 12z. As the surface cyclone to the west begins to deepen, the warm front should lift northward into central NE and southern SD by mid afternoon. Strong low-level moisture advection and sheltering by mid and high-level clouds should allow for upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints to pool near the front ahead of a subtle shortwave trough on the eastern periphery of the approaching upper low. Diurnal heating and forcing for ascent from the approaching shortwave should allow for removal of remaining inhibition by mid to late afternoon near and along the warm front and closer to the triple point. Mid-level lapse rates near 8-8.5 C/km and cool mid-level temps will support moderate buoyancy with large clockwise curved hodographs. Initial supercells are likely with the potential for large to very large hail. A few tornadoes are also possible given large low-level buoyancy and enhanced low-level SRH along the warm front. ...Central and southern Plains Dryline... Considerable uncertainty exists regarding diurnal convective development east of the dryline. Mid and high-level cloud cover from the active subtropical jet may stunt daytime heating/mixing while the later arrival of the main upper-low will limit large-scale ascent. With a stout EML in place, it is unclear if subtle ascent from embedded perturbations within the subtropical jet and the dryline circulation will support convective development from western KS and OK into the TX Panhandle during the day. CAM guidance suggests a few storms may develop farther south in west/western North TX within the deeply mixed air mass. With increasingly strong wind fields in place these storms would likely be supercellular with large to very large hail and the potential for a couple tornadoes. Additional development appears likely later in the evening and into the overnight hours as a Pacific front moves east and intersects with the retreating dryline. Uncertainty remains high with various model solutions, but higher probabilities of convective development appear likely across western and central KS with mid-level height falls and strong tropospheric flow fields increasing overnight. Large hail and damaging winds would be possible with this second round of storms, along with potential for a couple of tornadoes. ...Ohio Valley into VA and NC... Weak height falls from the subtle trough are expected to move over Mid Atlantic by early to mid afternoon timed with peak heating and modest boundary-layer moisture return. Weak surface convergence along a sagging cold front and surrounding terrain should be sufficient to support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development through the afternoon across the central OH Valley into eastern WV and northern VA. Ahead of the front, potentially low 50s F surface dewpoints and mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km will support 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with moderately strong mid and upper-level flow. Several bands or clusters of storms are expected to develop and may pose a risk for isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts as they track east/southeast into the evening hours. The threat should gradually diminish after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. ..Lyons/Kerr.. 04/15/2024 Read more