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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central Great Plains and Mid-Missouri Valley through sunrise. A swath of damaging winds with gusts from 70-90 mph is most likely across central and eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Isolated intense thunderstorms remain possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern Great Plains, including a few tornadoes and very large hail. ...Central to northern Great Plains... Large hail and a few tornadoes have been the primary reported hazards thus far with scattered to widespread thunderstorms from far southern ND into western NE. While the storms over the Dakotas are expected to weaken after sunset, pronounced MCS development appears probable tonight through tomorrow morning across NE into IA. The current tail-end supercell complex, just west of North Platte, should grow upscale into a bowing MCS. This will be aided by rapid strengthening of the low-level jet over KS/NE to 60-70 kts during the next few hours and a downstream plume of moderate to large buoyancy advecting quickly northward across the Mid-MO Valley. While low-level instability, especially with northern extent, should remain weak, the strong forcing for ascent and abundant MUCAPE will be favorable for a swath of severe wind gusts. Recent HRRR soundings indicate a rear-inflow jet to around 80 kts, suggesting that gusts from 70-90 mph should be anticipated as the bowing MCS matures. Have expanded level 2-3/SLGT-ENH threats farther east-northeast in IA to account for potential severe winds persisting through 12Z. ...Southern Great Plains... A few intense supercells have been sustained along the dryline from southwest OK to central TX and east along a residual outflow in east-central TX. Tornadoes, very large hail, and localized severe gusts will remain possible over the next couple hours within a large CAPE but weak forcing for ascent environment, before these storms wane into late evening. Additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms may develop over parts of the Red River Valley overnight with large hail as the primary threat. ...Southern Appalachians and Carolinas... Downstream of an MCV over KY, a plume of modest buoyancy (as sampled by the 00Z Nashville sounding) with scattered thunderstorms should persist tonight from eastern TN across parts of NC and northern NC. Locally strong gusts capable of damaging winds will remain the primary threat. ..Grams.. 05/24/2024 Read more

MD 0915 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 295... FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0915 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Areas affected...Western and Northern Nebraska...Central and Eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295... Valid 232254Z - 240100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295 continues. SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts is expected to continue for several more hours from western and northern Nebraska into central and eastern South Dakota. An isolated tornado threat may continue across parts of southwest Nebraska. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 997 mb low over central South Dakota with a cold front extending southward from western South Dakota into western Nebraska. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of the front. To the east of this line, surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 50s F, and the RAP is analyzing a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings from North Platte northeastward into southern South Dakota generally have 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.5 to 8 C/km. This environment will support a severe threat, with isolated large hail and wind damage possible. The wind damage threat will be the greatest along the most intense parts of the line. A potential for supercells will exist near the southern end of the line, to the west of North Platte. In this vicinity, LCL heights are a bit lower and surface dewpoints are near 60 F. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete this evening. ..Broyles.. 05/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...BOU... LAT...LON 42080215 41640252 41260251 41030238 40850200 40820160 40930102 41140077 41410055 42000009 43679862 44479810 44929794 45269795 45419823 45379895 44929935 44369979 43350065 42080215 Read more

WW 0294 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW IML TO 45 SSW PIR TO 10 SE PIR TO 15 ENE PIR. ..BROYLES..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...LBF...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 294 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-009-015-017-029-031-041-063-071-075-085-089-091-101-103- 111-113-115-117-135-149-171-183-240140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BLAINE BOYD BROWN CHASE CHERRY CUSTER FRONTIER GARFIELD GRANT HAYES HOLT HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS WHEELER NDC001-021-029-037-041-045-047-051-073-077-081-085-240140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS DICKEY EMMONS GRANT HETTINGER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX Read more

WW 0295 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 295 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918 ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 295 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-039-055-057-065-075-129-141-149-240140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM CUSTER GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA ROGER MILLS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC023-049-059-075-081-083-095-101-151-155-197-207-253-269-275- 307-319-327-353-399-411-413-417-433-441-447-451-487-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAYLOR BROWN CALLAHAN CHILDRESS COKE COLEMAN CONCHO COTTLE FISHER FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL JONES KING KNOX MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD NOLAN RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD STONEWALL Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0296 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 296 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 296 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-145-161-289-293-331-395-240140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON FALLS FREESTONE LEON LIMESTONE MILAM ROBERTSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more