Aggregator

WW 0298 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 298 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE GYI TO 20 ESE DUA TO 35 NNW PRX TO 30 E MLC. ..GOSS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 298 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-091-133-240940- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER SEVIER OKC023-077-079-089-121-127-240940- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHOCTAW LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-223-231-277-343-387-449-240940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOWIE CAMP CASS DELTA FANNIN FRANKLIN Read more

WW 298 SEVERE TSTM AR OK TX 240340Z - 241000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 298 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southwest Arkansas South central and southeast Oklahoma Northeast Texas * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1040 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Slightly elevated storms will continue to increase through the overnight hours and spread eastward near the Red River, with the potential for both supercells with large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, and some upscale growth into a small cluster with 60-70 mph outflow gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Ardmore OK to 30 miles east southeast of De Queen AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 294...WW 295...WW 297... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Thompson Read more

MD 0923 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297... FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...EASTWARD TO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0923 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...eastern Nebraska and north-central Kansas...eastward to western Iowa and northwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297... Valid 240615Z - 240815Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297 continues. SUMMARY...A line of strong storms continues moving eastward across eastern Nebraska and north-central Kansas, where severe risk -- primarily in the form of damaging wind gusts -- continues. New storms developing east of the convective line bear watching. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-organized line of convection advancing steadily eastward across eastern Nebraska and adjacent northern Kansas. While occasional mesoscale circulations within the line imply brief tornado potential, the main risk with this convection remains damaging winds. Storms are nearing the southeastern portion of the WW, which will likely prompt new WW issuance eastward toward/across the Middle Missouri Valley. In addition, warm-advection-driven convective development is occurring, from northwestern Iowa southward to northwestern Missouri. It remains unclear as to what degree this developing convection will pose severe risk, given a weakly stable boundary layer, and associated/elevated nature of the convection. At this time, isolated hail appears to be the primary risk, but given the current trends with respect to the increasing coverage of storms, we will continue to monitor for potential necessity for WW issuance well ahead of the Nebraska storms. ..Goss.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 39569891 40319823 41709781 42549707 42999631 42879466 41979371 40549287 39539314 39329503 39569891 Read more

WW 0300 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0300 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0298 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 298 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GYI TO 20 NW GYI TO 30 NNE DUA TO 10 NNE MLC. ..GOSS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 298 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC061-081-091-133-240840- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER SEVIER OKC005-013-023-077-079-089-121-127-240840- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW LATIMER LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA TXC037-063-067-119-147-159-181-223-231-277-343-379-387-449- 240840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0297 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 297 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW CNK TO 20 SW LNK TO 35 NNE SUX. ..GOSS..05/24/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 297 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-035-041-085-093-133-141-149-155-165-167-193-240840- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CHEROKEE CLAY HARRISON IDA MONONA O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SHELBY SIOUX WOODBURY KSC089-240840- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JEWELL NEC021-025-053-055-095-109-129-151-153-155-159-169-177-240840- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BURT CASS DODGE Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely Sunday into Sunday night across parts of the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that initially low-amplitude mid-level troughing, comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations emerging from the Great Basin and Southwest, will progress northeast and east of the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains during the day Sunday. It appears that this will be accompanied by notable further deepening of a relatively compact developing cyclone across the lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Great Lakes region by late Sunday night. There may also be a gradual consolidation of mid-level troughing centered over the Mississippi Valley, within amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific through North America. ...Southeastern Great Lakes through Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Given the large potential instability associated with low-level moisture return through the warm sector of the developing cyclone, beneath at least initially capping elevated mixed-layer air, strong to severe thunderstorm development may accompany mid-level height falls across a potentially sizable area of the interior U.S. The details of this evolution remain uncertain, due spread within/among the model output concerning the synoptic and sub-synoptic developments, which may include one or two substantial clusters of convective development across the lower Missouri Valley at the outset of the period. At the present time, model output seems suggestive that the most probable convective evolution may include early period convection weakening while spreading across and east of the middle Mississippi Valley during the day. In its wake, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating may develop along the western flank of modifying convective outflow across parts of the lower Ohio Valley northwestward through the middle Mississippi Valley. By Sunday afternoon, renewed convective development may focus near the intersection of the outflow and a southward advancing cold front across the west central Illinois/northeastern Missouri vicinity. Supported by large mixed-layer CAPE and strong shear, the environment likely will be conducive to supercells initially, before low-level warm advection along the remnant outflow supports an upscale growing cluster which should tend to forward propagate southeastward across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valley through Sunday evening. While convection may gradually increase along the southward advancing front to the southwest of the outflow boundary, the outflow boundary/differential heating zone seems likely to become the focus for the primary severe weather hazards, including a large hail/supercell tornado risk to damaging winds and perhaps a continuing QLCS tornado threat. ..Kerr.. 05/24/2024 Read more