Aggregator

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ABPZ20 KNHC 242314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Kansas’ winter wheat remained the worst rated in the country for the sixth straight week. The condition of the wheat improved slightly from last week. The winter wheat crop in northwest Kansas did not receive moisture until December. The state got some snow at the start of winter, but the end of the season into early spring was again dry, which stymied the wheat. May brought some moisture for the wheat, but it was too late for some of the wheat. Some farmers were already abandoning their wheat as rainfall has been spotty. There has also been some freeze damage. SF | Successful Farming (Des Moines, Iowa), May 21, 2024

MD 0936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...central and southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242042Z - 242245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A couple of severe thunderstorms are possible over central and southwest MO through the early to mid evening. Only isolated storm coverage is expected, lending uncertainty to the need for a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a couple of storms developing within a pre-frontal confluence zone over central MO and agitated cumulus along the front/dryline over western MO and into far northeast OK. Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70 deg F. Modifying the 18z Springfield, MO raob with 20z surface conditions, indicates 4700 J/kg SBCAPE or MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg. Per the 18z raob, moderate westerly flow gradually strengthening with height to 50 kt around 250 mb, will support storm organization. Any robust updraft will potentially be capable of acquiring supercell characteristics. Large to very large hail will be the primary risk given the isolated/cellular character of the storm type. Localized severe gusts could accompany any larger thunderstorm core. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 37429450 38329335 38429280 38209175 37989116 37629113 37299146 36579263 36559351 36589434 36889448 37429450 Read more

MD 0937 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 302... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Missouri into Illinois Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302... Valid 242057Z - 242230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302 continues. SUMMARY...Ongoing clusters of severe storms should remain capable of damaging gusts and hail this afternoon. Additional clustering may favor the more southeastern parts of the watch with time, but the severe risk continues over much of the area. DISCUSSION...As of 2050 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing from eastern MO into parts of central IL. Concentrated along a remnant outflow boundary from prior convection, storm evolution so far has been messy with multiple storm interactions. Though a few supercellular structures have recently emerged to the southwest. The upscale growth trend is expected to continue as the environment remains unstable and moderately sheared. Additional storms to the southwest are expected to increase in coverage with time and should merge with the already ongoing clusters. Eventually, one or more of these clusters may evolve into a more organized bow/ MCS as it tracks along the remnant outflow across far eastern MO and southwest IL. Given the tendency for upscale growth/clustering and moderate buoyancy/shear, damaging winds appear likely. Isolated hail will also be possible with the more robust cores. ..Lyons.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF... LAT...LON 38339234 39299170 40379041 40459005 40408930 40198877 39898826 39818821 39608803 39338796 38988795 38688800 38298818 37948917 38039076 38209171 38229223 38339234 Read more

MD 0938 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0938 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Areas affected...portions of central Arkansas into northern Mississippi and Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 242058Z - 242230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms continue along an outflow boundary across portions of the Southeast. Damaging gusts and hail still appear to be the main threats. Trends continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance pending an increase in thunderstorm coverage. DISCUSSION...Discrete transient supercell structures continued to progress along and north of an outflow boundary left behind by an MCS from earlier this morning. Surface temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s F south of the boundary, with MLCAPE increasing to over 3000 J/kg. Amid this environment, there has been a recent uptick in the intensity of the storms, with severe hail and damaging gusts recently reported in Pontotoc County, MS. While hail and wind gusts of similar caliber may occur over the next few hours, overall deep-layer ascent remains modest, putting overall storm coverage and the need of a WW issuance into question. Still, given the uptick in storm intensity, convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW issuance should storms become more abundant. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34909281 35249095 34948972 33968689 33358639 32908677 33008797 33348984 33829126 34209224 34909281 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Moderate westerly flow aloft and a weak lee cyclone over the central/southern High Plains will bring Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions on D3/Sunday to portions of New Mexico, western Texas, and southern Arizona. Latest guidance shows little confidence in sustained critical wind speeds, supporting maintaining 40 percent probabilities. Given potential for relative humidity in the single digits to teens and fuels in the 90th percentile, this potential will be closely monitored for inclusion of higher risk areas should trends change. A large-scale ridge will build over the West beyond D3/Sunday, generally limiting fire-weather concerns over the Desert Southwest and High Plains where fuels are the driest for the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Thornton.. 05/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more