Aggregator

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W RUE TO 45 WSW MEM TO 35 SW MSL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223 ..WEINMAN..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC001-041-051-053-059-069-077-079-083-085-095-097-105-107-113- 117-119-125-127-149-100240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARKANSAS DESHA GARLAND GRANT HOT SPRING JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN LOGAN LONOKE MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY PHILLIPS POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI SALINE SCOTT YELL MSC011-013-015-017-019-025-027-043-057-071-081-083-087-095-097- 103-105-107-115-119-133-135-137-143-145-155-159-161-100240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOLIVAR CALHOUN CARROLL CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLAY Read more

MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OR INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND EXTREME NORTHERN NV
Mesoscale Discussion 1221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Southeast OR into southwest ID and extreme northern NV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092328Z - 100130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and severe gusts are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast OR and vicinity, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. MLCAPE of up to 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear are supporting occasionally organized storm structures, with a couple of stronger cells noted across Malheur County, Oregon. Those cells will eventually encounter stronger MLCINH to the northeast, but isolated hail and severe gusts will remain possible in the short term. Other less-organized convection is ongoing farther west into south-central OR, and also moving out of far northern NV. A stronger cell or two could develop across those areas as well, but even the ongoing less-organized convection could pose a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts, especially where the environment remains rather warm and well mixed. ..Dean/Bunting.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR... LAT...LON 41641905 41901981 42172057 42612086 43252035 43541891 43971710 43851605 43151585 41951536 41731709 41631876 41641905 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Mid South, while gusty winds and some hail threat remain possible with convection arcing across the High Plains into the northern inter mountain region. ...01z Update... Synoptic front/reinforced convective outflow, from early day MCS, has settled across the mid South region, arcing from northern GA-northern AL-northern MS-southern AR. Scattered robust thunderstorms have developed along/behind this wind shift and are propagating southeast within deeper mean northwesterly flow. Surface front will continue to advance south this evening and this activity should gradually sag south with the boundary. Gusty winds along with some hail threat will be noted with this activity. Elsewhere, seasonally weak mid-level flow extends around the northern periphery of the Rockies upper ridge. Strong boundary-layer heating across the northern interior Rockies region has contributed to steep lapse rates/buoyancy for scattered robust storms, especially from southeast OR into eastern ID. This activity should gradually weaken over the next few hours with loss of daytime heating. ..Darrow.. 06/10/2024 Read more

WW 0401 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0401 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0402 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NC...NORTHWESTERN SC...AND FAR NORTHEAST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0649 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southwestern NC...northwestern SC...and far northeast GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092349Z - 100145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail are possible through around 02Z. A watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms is evolving along the leading edge of antecedent outflow over western NC as of 2340Z, though organization has been limited thus far. As these storms continue east-southeastward through around 02Z, there is some potential for the development of a loosely organized cluster (and perhaps transient supercell structures), given a warm/moist pre-convective boundary layer and around 40-50 kt of unidirectional effective shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates (contributing to a weak/skinny buoyancy profile), limited large-scale ascent, and time-of-day may tend to limit overall intensity/organization of storms. Nevertheless, locally damaging gusts (45-60 mph) and marginally severe hail (to near 1 inch) cannot be ruled out. Additional strong/loosely organized cellular development is also possible trailing southwestward into far northeastern GA, with a localized risk for strong gusts and marginally severe hail. Currently, the severe threat appears too localized and marginal for a watch, though convective trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 35338029 35578066 35688112 35678147 35458196 35278254 35068346 34968389 34748406 34508405 34318369 34288337 34338284 34218241 33928163 33878089 34258034 34638013 34988006 35338029 Read more

MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST OR INTO SOUTHWEST ID AND EXTREME NORTHERN NV
Mesoscale Discussion 1221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0628 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...Southeast OR into southwest ID and extreme northern NV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092328Z - 100130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail and severe gusts are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across southeast OR and vicinity, in advance of a shortwave trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. MLCAPE of up to 500 J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear are supporting occasionally organized storm structures, with a couple of stronger cells noted across Malheur County, Oregon. Those cells will eventually encounter stronger MLCINH to the northeast, but isolated hail and severe gusts will remain possible in the short term. Other less-organized convection is ongoing farther west into south-central OR, and also moving out of far northern NV. A stronger cell or two could develop across those areas as well, but even the ongoing less-organized convection could pose a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts, especially where the environment remains rather warm and well mixed. ..Dean/Bunting.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR... LAT...LON 41641905 41901981 42172057 42612086 43252035 43541891 43971710 43851605 43151585 41951536 41731709 41631876 41641905 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 092306
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 9 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 9 23:03:02 UTC 2024.

WW 0402 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0402 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 402 SEVERE TSTM AL 092300Z - 100600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Alabama * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 600 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east across the watch area this evening and tonight, with a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Tuscaloosa AL to 30 miles east southeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 401... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1220 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024 Areas affected...parts of northern Mississippi through central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092047Z - 092245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorms, including at least short-lived supercell structures, may continue to gradually develop through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. It is not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...Beneath a remnant plume of elevated mixed-layer air which has advected across and east-southeast of the lower Mississippi Valley, surface temperatures are warming through the lower/mid 90s F. Within a seasonably moist boundary layer, it appears that this is contributing to large CAPE up to 2500-3000 J/kg, near the southern periphery of stronger west-northwesterly mid/upper flow (including 35-45 kt around 500 mb). Although much of the region appears south of the stronger mid/upper forcing for ascent, deepening convection, including at least a few attempts at sustained thunderstorm development, appear to be underway. With at least some further erosion of inhibition with continuing insolation, it appears that this may continue with widely scattered intensifying thunderstorms possible through late afternoon. Although low-level wind fields and hodographs are rather weak, deep-layer shear appears supportive of appreciable mid-level rotation and the occasional evolution of supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 34628980 34298856 33898607 32398745 33319006 34209086 34628980 Read more