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MD 1225 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST GA INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SC
Mesoscale Discussion 1225 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...southeast GA into extreme southern SC Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 101731Z - 101930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of hail to 2 inch diameter and gusts to 65 mph are expected to develop over the next 1-2 hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is expected by 19z. DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed for inhibition to rapidly erode early this afternoon. Widespread vertically developing cumulus is noted where skies have remained mostly clear across southern/central GA. Development is a bit slower further east into SC where thin cloud cover has mildly muted heating. Regardless, another 1-2 hours of heating will result continued erosion of inhibition downstream. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F amid modest midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7 C/km is resulting in moderate destabilization from west to east along a surface boundary. While deep-layer flow will remain mostly unidirectional from the southwest, increasing speed with height is supporting elongated, somewhat straight hodographs, and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt. This environment will support supercells storms capable of large hail. With time, convective coverage should become quite widespread and clustering my further enhance strong/severe wind gust potential. Convection should develop/increase in coverage by 19-20z and a watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 32348374 32838325 33248218 33368107 33517997 33457951 33367922 33187900 32947895 32587918 31868025 31418081 31138136 31098273 31288337 31608376 32018382 32348374 Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0404 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

Skyrockets with sticks and missiles with fins will be banned for sale and use in El Paso County due to persistent drought. KVIA-TV ABC 7 El Paso (Texas), June 10, 2024

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Overall, the previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. A small Elevated area was considered for southeast and east-central OR Tuesday afternoon, where westerly sustained surface winds around 15-25 mph are anticipated in combination with minimum RH dropping below 25 percent. However, only localized receptive fuels currently exist there, leading to lower confidence in both fire ignition and spread. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale ridge will build over the Southwest, favoring increasingly warm/dry conditions across the region -- especially over the Desert Southwest. While surface winds may be slightly more breezy than Day 1/Monday, owing to a weak surface low over southwest AZ, any elevated fire-weather conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. Farther north, a strong westerly midlevel jet will overspread the Pacific Northwest, while a cold front crosses the region. As a result, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds and locally dry conditions are possible along/east of the Cascades in WA and OR. This combination may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, though a limited overlap of the strongest surface winds and low RH precludes highlights at this time (especially given the current state of fuels). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0403 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 10 17:53:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX... ...SUMMARY... A cluster of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail to around golf ball size and wind gusts to around 70 mph will be possible across a portion of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau from 3 to 10 PM CDT Tuesday. ...Edwards Plateau Vicinity of TX... A minor mid-level low will drift east-southeastward from the southern High Plains across the Red River Valley. A belt of enhanced northwesterlies from 25-35 kts at 500-mb is expected in the southwest quadrant of this wave. This should overlap a zone of pronounced differential heating between residual clouds/morning convection centered on the Big Country and nearly full insolation in south TX. While confidence is about average with where exactly this corridor should setup, it appears most likely to be centered on the Edwards Plateau vicinity by peak heating. This should foster at least a few supercells during the mid to late afternoon, which may congeal into a southeast-moving cluster during the evening. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, with severe wind gusts becoming more likely towards the Hill Country vicinity. These threats should wane after dusk. ...Upper MS Valley... A swath of showers and embedded non-severe thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of a shortwave trough shifting east across the Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. The warm-moist sector in the wake of surface warm front passage should be relatively narrow ahead of an occluding cold front. Consensus of guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should develop by mid to late afternoon from the St. Croix Valley through at least north-central IA, despite a predominately westerly low-level wind profile ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail should be most favored with northern extent owing to cooler mid-level temperatures/steeper lapse rates. Isolated severe wind should tend to be favored with southern extent owing to a warmer/more deeper-mixed boundary layer. The relatively isolated expected coverage along with the aforementioned limiting factors preclude higher probabilities with this cycle. ...Northeast NC/far southeast VA... A mid-level shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough over the Northeast is expected to progress across NC and southern VA Tuesday morning into early afternoon. A minor surface trough should be centered across eastern NC into extreme southeast VA. Prior to mid-level warming/drying in the wake of the impulse, a few thunderstorms may be sustained along the surface trough over northeast NC into far southeast VA. While low-level winds will be light, sufficient speed shear above 700 mb should foster a threat for marginally severe hail from midday to mid-afternoon. Localized strong downbursts will also be possible as convection matures. ...Southeast CO/northeast NM... Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms should develop along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Deep-layer shear profiles will be modest in the wake of the Red River mid-level impulse. But they may be adequate enough when coupled with the steep low to mid-level lapse rate environment to foster a threat for marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts into the adjacent High Plains. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX... ...SUMMARY... A cluster of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail to around golf ball size and wind gusts to around 70 mph will be possible across a portion of Texas centered on the Edwards Plateau from 3 to 10 PM CDT Tuesday. ...Edwards Plateau Vicinity of TX... A minor mid-level low will drift east-southeastward from the southern High Plains across the Red River Valley. A belt of enhanced northwesterlies from 25-35 kts at 500-mb is expected in the southwest quadrant of this wave. This should overlap a zone of pronounced differential heating between residual clouds/morning convection centered on the Big Country and nearly full insolation in south TX. While confidence is about average with where exactly this corridor should setup, it appears most likely to be centered on the Edwards Plateau vicinity by peak heating. This should foster at least a few supercells during the mid to late afternoon, which may congeal into a southeast-moving cluster during the evening. Large hail should be the primary initial threat, with severe wind gusts becoming more likely towards the Hill Country vicinity. These threats should wane after dusk. ...Upper MS Valley... A swath of showers and embedded non-severe thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of a shortwave trough shifting east across the Prairie Provinces into the Upper Midwest. The warm-moist sector in the wake of surface warm front passage should be relatively narrow ahead of an occluding cold front. Consensus of guidance suggests at least isolated thunderstorms should develop by mid to late afternoon from the St. Croix Valley through at least north-central IA, despite a predominately westerly low-level wind profile ahead of the front. Isolated severe hail should be most favored with northern extent owing to cooler mid-level temperatures/steeper lapse rates. Isolated severe wind should tend to be favored with southern extent owing to a warmer/more deeper-mixed boundary layer. The relatively isolated expected coverage along with the aforementioned limiting factors preclude higher probabilities with this cycle. ...Northeast NC/far southeast VA... A mid-level shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough over the Northeast is expected to progress across NC and southern VA Tuesday morning into early afternoon. A minor surface trough should be centered across eastern NC into extreme southeast VA. Prior to mid-level warming/drying in the wake of the impulse, a few thunderstorms may be sustained along the surface trough over northeast NC into far southeast VA. While low-level winds will be light, sufficient speed shear above 700 mb should foster a threat for marginally severe hail from midday to mid-afternoon. Localized strong downbursts will also be possible as convection matures. ...Southeast CO/northeast NM... Isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms should develop along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Deep-layer shear profiles will be modest in the wake of the Red River mid-level impulse. But they may be adequate enough when coupled with the steep low to mid-level lapse rate environment to foster a threat for marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts into the adjacent High Plains. ..Grams.. 06/10/2024 Read more