Aggregator

WW 403 SEVERE TSTM GA SC CW 101810Z - 110100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Coastal/southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon while posing a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter. Any small bowing clusters that can form may also pose a threat for strong to locally severe winds of 55-70 mph. Convection should spread towards, and eventually off, the coast later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Vidalia GA to 15 miles southeast of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1229 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 404... FOR EASTERN WYOMING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404... Valid 102053Z - 102300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind/hail continues across the northern High Plains with more focused corridors of greater wind/hail potential noted based on recent observed trends across northwest South Dakota and southeastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, an organized squall line has emerged from a cluster of initially semi-discrete cells across northwest SD. This line has a history of producing severe wind, including a measured 66 mph gust. This line will continue to pose a severe wind risk through the eastern edge of WW 404; however, downstream into central SD, lower quality moisture/buoyancy should result in a gradual weakening trend through the late afternoon/early evening. Some indications of this weakening have already been noted as portions of the line are slowly becoming outflow dominant. Downstream watch issuance does not appear likely at this time, but convective trends will continue to be monitored to ensure the line weakens as expected as it exits WW 404. Further south, a cluster of semi-discrete cells continues to move east along the front. MRMS hail estimates suggests the more intense cells have been capable of large to very large hail (possibly up to 2 inches in diameter). The expectation over the next hour or so is for these semi-discrete cells to continue to pose a large hail risk as they migrate towards an axis of greater (2000-2500 J/kg) SBCAPE. Continued thunderstorm development along the front should favor a gradual transition to an organized line with an increasing wind threat. When this transition occurs remains somewhat unclear, but most indications suggest this may occur around or just after 22 UTC across far southwest SD and the NE Panhandle. ..Moore.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 40760474 40920503 41240519 42380502 43210460 44120464 44460436 45020372 45430340 45760320 45990299 46140255 46150178 46050135 45870106 45550092 45140090 44190105 43850114 42440150 41510236 41210283 41060330 40750437 40760474 Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CPR TO 55 WSW RAP TO 30 NNE RAP TO 20 SSW Y22 TO 40 ESE DIK. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161- 165-102340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-055-071-093-102-103-105-137-102340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE CPR TO 55 WSW RAP TO 30 NNE RAP TO 20 SSW Y22 TO 40 ESE DIK. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-013-031-033-045-049-069-075-091-101-105-123-157-161- 165-102340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER BOX BUTTE CHERRY CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-055-071-093-102-103-105-137-102340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH Read more

WW 404 SEVERE TSTM MT ND NE SD WY 101845Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Southeast Montana Far Southwest North Dakota The Nebraska Panhandle Western South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1245 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen this afternoon and early evening while posing a threat for large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter and severe/damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph. A brief tornado may also occur with any sustained supercell, especially in western South Dakota. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 165 statute miles north and south of a line from 95 miles north northwest of Torrington WY to 55 miles east southeast of Rapid City SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 403... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Overview... Increasing elevated to critical fire spread conditions are expected across the Great Basin, Southwest, and portions of the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Fuels will continue to generally become more receptive across these regions due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and hot, dry conditions. The most significant overlap of meteorological parameters and deteriorating fuel states is expected D5/Friday near the NM/AZ border. ...Synopsis... By the middle of the week, an upper-level ridge will remain over the southern and central Rockies, while a closed, cut-off low approaches southern CA. Further north across most of the northern CONUS, strong zonal mid to upper-level flow is expected from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes. As the aforementioned closed low moves onshore D4/Thursday, associated strengthening mid-level winds are expected over a deeply mixed lower troposphere across portions of southern NV and northwestern AZ, in addition to a tightening surface pressure gradient. Low critical probabilities have been included for this region, where coincident RH should again drop into the low teens to single digits. This closed low will begin to open and shift eastward over the Southwest D5/Friday, as a north Pacific mid to upper-level shortwave trough and jet traverse WA and OR. Long-term NWP global ensemble consensus has led to enough confidence of critical sustained winds and RH to introduce 70 percent probabilities along/near the AZ/NM border from around the Colorado Plateau and southward. Low probabilities of critical conditions were also included for far northern OR and WA along and east of the Cascades under a mid-level jet axis, where ERC percentiles will begin to approach or exceed 90-95. The low probabilities for D6/Saturday have been shifted westward over northwestern AZ, southwestern UT, and far southeastern NV under the nose of a secondary, more subtle mid-level westerly jet max, and where a tightening surface pressure gradient will likely reside. Further east across the rest of AZ and NM, surface wind speeds should diminish behind the exiting mid-level shortwave trough moving into the Central Plains, although minimum RH will still remain very low (single digits) there. Similar, and perhaps even more widespread, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are anticipated by D7/Sunday over central AZ and far western NM. In addition to increasing confidence of at least elevated dry, and windy conditions throughout the Southwest and Great Basin in the extended forecast, isolated thunderstorms may accompany increasing mid-level moisture atop well mixed sub-cloud layers. Erratic winds, and perhaps Isolated Dry Thunderstorms, cannot be ruled out. However, confidence in more precise locations of these phenomenon is too low to introduce probabilities for the time being. ..Barnes.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW 4BQ TO 30 SE 4BQ TO 40 SW 2WX TO 20 SSE 2WX TO 35 E 2WX TO 30 N Y22. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-102240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-019-033-047-055-071-081-093-102-103-105-137-102240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER FALL RIVER HAAKON JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE OGLALA LAKOTA PENNINGTON PERKINS ZIEBACH WYC009-011-015-021-027-031-045-102240- WY Read more

MD 1228 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico to western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101916Z - 102145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is underway across southeast New Mexico and far western Texas. Initially discrete cells will likely pose a severe hail/wind risk across southeast New Mexico before gradual upscale growth later this afternoon/evening into western Texas. Convective coverage remains uncertain, but trends will be monitored for the need for watch issuance across portions of west Texas. DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery show early thunderstorm development across far southeast NM into far western TX along a weak/diffuse low-level confluence axis, as well as within upslope flow regime on the eastern side of the Sacramento Mountains. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated through late afternoon as temperatures climb into the low/mid 80s and MLCIN continues to wane. Initial cells will likely be isolated, and may remain fairly weak given more marginal moisture/buoyancy within this initiation zone. However, 30-knot mid-level flow on the southern fringe of a weak mid-level vorticity maximum is elongating hodographs through 5 to 6 km AGL, which may support storm organization with an attendant severe hail/wind risk. Thunderstorms should intensify as they migrate downstream into the southern Permian Basin and northern Edwards Plateau where higher quality low-level moisture is noted in 19 UTC surface observations (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s). Discrete cells that can meander into this air mass may pose a more robust hail threat as they fully realize more substantial effective bulk shear (between 35-40 knots). However, given a somewhat deep (around 2 km), well-mixed boundary layer and weak low-level storm relative winds, storms may have a high probability of becoming outflow dominant within the first couple of hours. Upscale growth into a more organized cluster/line appears possible, but may be conditional on the coverage of initial cells (which remains uncertain). If this scenario occurs, a more focused wind threat may materialize downstream across parts of the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau later this evening. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for watch issuance as storm coverage becomes more apparent. ..Moore/Gleason.. 06/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 31780282 31990321 32200345 32530346 32940332 33250321 33660289 33750270 33740229 33640196 33540176 33350136 32680012 32240005 31750012 31360040 31000095 30880131 31000171 31780282 Read more

WW 0404 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 404 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...BIS...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 404 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC011-102240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-102240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX NDC001-011-102240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOWMAN Read more

WW 0403 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE MCN TO 45 SW AGS. ..LYONS..06/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...CAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC001-005-029-031-033-043-051-069-091-103-107-109-161-165-167- 175-179-183-191-209-251-267-271-279-283-305-309-102140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING BACON BRYAN BULLOCH BURKE CANDLER CHATHAM COFFEE DODGE EFFINGHAM EMANUEL EVANS JEFF DAVIS JENKINS JOHNSON LAURENS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY SCREVEN TATTNALL TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WAYNE WHEELER SCC005-009-011-013-015-019-029-035-049-053-075-102140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLENDALE BAMBERG BARNWELL BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON Read more