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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

MD 0745 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226...229... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0745 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0411 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...Far Southeast Alabama...Southern Georgia...Northern Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226...229... Valid 100911Z - 101115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226, 229 continues. SUMMARY...A wind-damage, hail and isolated tornado threat will be likely across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast region this morning. As a severe MCS approaches the eastern edge of WW 229, new weather watch issuance may become necessary. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed severe MCS from the far western Florida Panhandle into far southeast Alabama. This feature will continue to move east-southeastward along a gradient of moderate instability across the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Tallahassee, FL has 0-6 km shear of 55 to 60 knots suggesting that supercells and bowing line segments will be likely within the stronger parts of the MCS. The VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 150 m2/s2 which should be sufficient for an isolated threat for a brief tornado. The severe threat is expected to impact southeast Georgia and the northern Florida Peninsula within a few hours, where weather watch issuance may be needed. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30768144 31338183 31788294 32158390 32308469 32108515 31778546 31378569 31018578 30708576 30368543 30008479 29398325 29188232 29258176 29848139 30768144 Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PFN TO 20 E MAI TO 15 E ABY TO 45 NE ABY. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC017-019-027-071-075-087-131-155-173-185-205-253-275-277-287- 315-321-101140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR GRADY IRWIN LANIER LOWNDES MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS TIFT TURNER WILCOX WORTH Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PFN TO 20 E MAI TO 15 E ABY TO 45 NE ABY. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC017-019-027-071-075-087-131-155-173-185-205-253-275-277-287- 315-321-101140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR GRADY IRWIN LANIER LOWNDES MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS TIFT TURNER WILCOX WORTH Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PFN TO 20 E MAI TO 15 E ABY TO 45 NE ABY. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC017-019-027-071-075-087-131-155-173-185-205-253-275-277-287- 315-321-101140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR GRADY IRWIN LANIER LOWNDES MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS TIFT TURNER WILCOX WORTH Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PFN TO 20 E MAI TO 15 E ABY TO 45 NE ABY. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC017-019-027-071-075-087-131-155-173-185-205-253-275-277-287- 315-321-101140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR GRADY IRWIN LANIER LOWNDES MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS TIFT TURNER WILCOX WORTH Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PFN TO 20 E MAI TO 15 E ABY TO 45 NE ABY. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC017-019-027-071-075-087-131-155-173-185-205-253-275-277-287- 315-321-101140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR GRADY IRWIN LANIER LOWNDES MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS TIFT TURNER WILCOX WORTH Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PFN TO 20 E MAI TO 15 E ABY TO 45 NE ABY. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-029-037-039-045-065-067-073-077-079-123-129-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN DIXIE FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA GAC017-019-027-071-075-087-131-155-173-185-205-253-275-277-287- 315-321-101140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR GRADY IRWIN LANIER LOWNDES MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS TIFT TURNER WILCOX WORTH Read more

WW 229 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 100805Z - 101500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning from 405 AM until 1100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple well-organized squall lines with bowing segments will quickly spread east-southeastward across the region through the early morning hours, with damaging winds being the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Panama City FL to 5 miles east of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 226...WW 227...WW 228... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29045. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-075-083-089-107-109-121- 125-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-179-183-191-209- 229-267-271-279-299-305-309-101140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS GLYNN JEFF DAVIS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY PIERCE TATTNALL TELFAIR Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-047-075-083-089-107-109-121- 125-101140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HAMILTON LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE UNION GAC001-003-005-025-039-049-065-069-101-127-161-179-183-191-209- 229-267-271-279-299-305-309-101140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON CLINCH COFFEE ECHOLS GLYNN JEFF DAVIS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH MONTGOMERY PIERCE TATTNALL TELFAIR Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates. Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too low to outlook any areas. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit overall forecast confidence. From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates. Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too low to outlook any areas. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit overall forecast confidence. From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates. Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too low to outlook any areas. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit overall forecast confidence. From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates. Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too low to outlook any areas. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit overall forecast confidence. From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates. Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too low to outlook any areas. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit overall forecast confidence. From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates. Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too low to outlook any areas. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit overall forecast confidence. From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates. Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too low to outlook any areas. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit overall forecast confidence. From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that a southern-stream shortwave trough will extend from KS into eastern Mexico early D4/Monday morning. This shortwave is then expected to make steady eastward progress, moving across the Mid/Lower MS Valley on D5/Tuesday and TN Valley/Mid-Atlantic on D6/Wednesday. Strong buoyancy and shear will likely be in place from central TX into LA on D4/Monday. However, given the potential for multiple days of antecedent rainfall, there is some uncertainty regarding whether or not the airmass will really be as unstable as guidance indicates. Additionally, differences in frontal timing lead to variance on the location of the best buoyancy and shear. Predictability remains too low to outlook any areas. Some severe potential may materialize across the Southeast and FL on D5/Tuesday, where moderate buoyancy and shear could be in place ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, timing differences within guidance coupled with uncertainty regarding the extent of antecedent precipitation and the location of the warm sector limit overall forecast confidence. From D6/Wednesday into D8/Friday, guidance continues to show notable run-to-run and model-to-model variability as split flow prevails and the southern stream remains active. Given the likely favorable buoyancy, some severe is possible from TX into the Southeast during this time. However, this low-predictability pattern and resulting variability within the guidance precludes outlooking any areas. Read more