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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0746 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 229...230... FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Georgia...Northern and Central Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...230... Valid 101217Z - 101445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229, 230 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat are expected with an MCS, as it moves east-southeastward across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat could impact parts of north-central Florida later this morning, and that area will continue to be monitored for additional watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed MCS over southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The MCS will continue to move east-southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast over the next couple of hours. Ahead of the MCS, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the Jacksonville, FL WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots suggesting that the large-scale bowing line segment may remain organized. Wind damage will be possible along the leading edge of the more intense line segments. The VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150 m2/s2 which appears sufficient for an isolated tornado threat with rotating cells embedded in the line. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31968198 31648274 30958334 30328364 29788354 29258329 28698281 28438224 28398165 28538118 28838100 29348096 30538125 31618116 31968198 Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY TO 15 SSW GNV TO 30 E GNV TO 20 S JAX TO 15 W SSI TO 30 N SSI TO 35 E SAV. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC019-031-035-083-089-107-109-101440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS GAC039-127-191-101440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN GLYNN MCINTOSH AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY TO 15 SSW GNV TO 30 E GNV TO 20 S JAX TO 15 W SSI TO 30 N SSI TO 35 E SAV. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC019-031-035-083-089-107-109-101440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS GAC039-127-191-101440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN GLYNN MCINTOSH AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY TO 15 SSW GNV TO 30 E GNV TO 20 S JAX TO 15 W SSI TO 30 N SSI TO 35 E SAV. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC019-031-035-083-089-107-109-101440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS GAC039-127-191-101440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN GLYNN MCINTOSH AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY TO 15 SSW GNV TO 30 E GNV TO 20 S JAX TO 15 W SSI TO 30 N SSI TO 35 E SAV. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC019-031-035-083-089-107-109-101440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS GAC039-127-191-101440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN GLYNN MCINTOSH AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 230 SEVERE TSTM FL GA CW 101005Z - 101600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 605 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Florida Southeast Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning from 605 AM until NOON EDT. * Primary threats include... Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving and well-organized squall line will continue east-southeastward across the region this morning, with potentially widespread damaging winds as the primary impact. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northeast of Waycross GA to 40 miles southeast of Gainesville FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 226...WW 228...WW 229... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29045. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW CTY TO 40 NW GNV TO 30 ESE VLD TO 15 W AYS TO 10 NNW SAV. ..BROYLES..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-019-023-031-035-041-075-083-089-107-109-125- 101340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST LEVY MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS UNION GAC025-039-049-101-127-191-229-299-305-101340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY CAMDEN CHARLTON ECHOLS GLYNN MCINTOSH PIERCE WARE WAYNE AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-101340- Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of primarily damaging winds will continue early today across northern Florida and far south Georgia. A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and hail are also expected across the Carolinas. ...Southern Georgia/northern Florida... A well-organized and fast-moving squall line, which had included embedded bowing segments and periodic mesovortices, will continue east-southeastward this morning, favoring the prior-outflow-reinforced instability gradient near the Georgia/Florida border. Damaging winds, along with some QLCS-related tornado risk, will remain a distinct concern prior to the MCS moving offshore. The most prominent severe risk should be with the early day MCS, but some redevelopment will be possible, immediately on the MCS southwestern flank, as well as into the afternoon with some potential recovery ahead of the cold front. This could occur across southeast Alabama/southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Deep-layer shear will remain conditionally sufficient for organized convection, and a couple stronger cells/clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts. ...Carolinas... With the early-day MCS to the south expected to move quickly offshore during the morning, there will be some opportunity for a corridor of moderate destabilization across part of the Carolinas in advance of the cold front. The favorably timed shortwave trough approaching from the northwest will support thunderstorm development along the front, with rather strong deep-layer flow/shear supportive of storm organization. A couple of supercells and/or small bowing segments will be possible, including risks of large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...South-central Texas/Edwards Plateau... To the north of a stalled front, at least isolated elevated convection may develop this afternoon into early evening, particularly across the Edwards Plateau and in closer proximity to the Rio Grande. The intensity of any such convection remains uncertain, but elevated buoyancy may be sufficient to support a few severe storms with large hail as the most probable risk. ...Upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley... Low-topped convection is expected to develop across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon, in association with the shortwave trough moving southeastward across the region. Instability will be quite weak due to limited moisture, but relatively deep mixing and steep low-level lapse rates could support isolated gusty/damaging winds with the strongest convection this afternoon. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 05/10/2024 Read more