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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MN AND FAR NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms are also possible across the coastal Carolinas. ...Northern Great Plains into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes... A rather conditional Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of MN into northern WI and western upper MI, where confidence in storm development within a favorable environment is currently highest. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move eastward across parts of SK/MB during the day on Monday. A weak secondary surface low may develop along a trailing cold front across the eastern Dakotas, while a warm front will move northeastward across MN through the day. The environment will become conditionally favorable for severe thunderstorms through the day, with increasing low-level moisture beneath a stout EML supporting strong buoyancy across the warm sector, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain across the region, due to EML-related capping concerns and generally modest large-scale ascent. There is some potential for early-day convection across ND to spread southeastward through the day with some severe threat. Isolated storm development will also be possible near the cold front from the far eastern Dakotas into west-central/northwest MN. Some increase in elevated convection will be possible Monday night across a larger portion of MN into northern WI, in response to an intensifying low-level jet. Any surface-based storms that develop within this regime could become supercells, with an attendant threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. There will also be some potential for upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS by Monday night, depending on the evolution of convection earlier in the day. A southeastward expansion of greater severe-wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence in the MCS scenario increases. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the surface trough/weak cold front moving across the Dakotas is forecast to reach parts of NE by afternoon. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak midlevel flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. Farther west, high-based convection may also develop from eastern WY into the Black Hills vicinity, which may spread eastward into the early evening with a threat of isolated severe gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MN AND FAR NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms are also possible across the coastal Carolinas. ...Northern Great Plains into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes... A rather conditional Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of MN into northern WI and western upper MI, where confidence in storm development within a favorable environment is currently highest. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move eastward across parts of SK/MB during the day on Monday. A weak secondary surface low may develop along a trailing cold front across the eastern Dakotas, while a warm front will move northeastward across MN through the day. The environment will become conditionally favorable for severe thunderstorms through the day, with increasing low-level moisture beneath a stout EML supporting strong buoyancy across the warm sector, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain across the region, due to EML-related capping concerns and generally modest large-scale ascent. There is some potential for early-day convection across ND to spread southeastward through the day with some severe threat. Isolated storm development will also be possible near the cold front from the far eastern Dakotas into west-central/northwest MN. Some increase in elevated convection will be possible Monday night across a larger portion of MN into northern WI, in response to an intensifying low-level jet. Any surface-based storms that develop within this regime could become supercells, with an attendant threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. There will also be some potential for upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS by Monday night, depending on the evolution of convection earlier in the day. A southeastward expansion of greater severe-wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence in the MCS scenario increases. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the surface trough/weak cold front moving across the Dakotas is forecast to reach parts of NE by afternoon. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak midlevel flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. Farther west, high-based convection may also develop from eastern WY into the Black Hills vicinity, which may spread eastward into the early evening with a threat of isolated severe gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF MN AND FAR NORTHEAST ND INTO NORTHWEST WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday across parts of the northern and central Great Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes. Isolated severe storms are also possible across the coastal Carolinas. ...Northern Great Plains into the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes... A rather conditional Slight Risk has been maintained across parts of MN into northern WI and western upper MI, where confidence in storm development within a favorable environment is currently highest. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are forecast to move eastward across parts of SK/MB during the day on Monday. A weak secondary surface low may develop along a trailing cold front across the eastern Dakotas, while a warm front will move northeastward across MN through the day. The environment will become conditionally favorable for severe thunderstorms through the day, with increasing low-level moisture beneath a stout EML supporting strong buoyancy across the warm sector, in the presence of moderate deep-layer shear. Storm coverage and evolution remain uncertain across the region, due to EML-related capping concerns and generally modest large-scale ascent. There is some potential for early-day convection across ND to spread southeastward through the day with some severe threat. Isolated storm development will also be possible near the cold front from the far eastern Dakotas into west-central/northwest MN. Some increase in elevated convection will be possible Monday night across a larger portion of MN into northern WI, in response to an intensifying low-level jet. Any surface-based storms that develop within this regime could become supercells, with an attendant threat of very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. There will also be some potential for upscale growth into a southeastward-moving MCS by Monday night, depending on the evolution of convection earlier in the day. A southeastward expansion of greater severe-wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence in the MCS scenario increases. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the surface trough/weak cold front moving across the Dakotas is forecast to reach parts of NE by afternoon. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak midlevel flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. Farther west, high-based convection may also develop from eastern WY into the Black Hills vicinity, which may spread eastward into the early evening with a threat of isolated severe gusts. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN valleys, this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is forecast to remain over the northern third of the US as a shortwave trough moves east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. To the east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broader zonal flow aloft over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario is expected to consolidate and strengthen as flow aloft increases over much of New England. A secondary trough over the upper MS River Valley is also expected to amplify as zonal flow aloft becomes southwesterly over the Northeast. Height falls and increasing DPVA will aid in strong surface cyclogenesis over the lower St Lawrence Valley. To the east of the deepening surface cyclone, a warm front will extend eastward across New England to the Atlantic coast, while a cold front and surface trough trails toward the southwest into the OH valley. ...New England to the Mid Atlantic... At the start of the forecast period, scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near the warm front from southern Quebec southeastward to southern New England. Insentropic ascent along the front from a 30-40 kt LLJ will continue to support scattered storms near the frontal zone through the morning hours as rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) are advected northward. In the wake of the early morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Deep-layer shear profiles of 45-60 kt support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Confidence in a corridor of locally greater severe risk remains highest across portions of southern ME, VT, NH and west-central MA. Here, area model soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3, near the climatological maximum for the region. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes appears somewhat higher. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. Across the Mid Atlantic, more isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multi-cell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado or two will remain possible with any sustained supercell. ...Upper OH to the Mid TN Valleys... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Despite veered surface flow west of the surface trough over the Mid Atlantic, rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into MT will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND later into the evening and overnight hours. ...Central Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely over parts of eastern CO, southwest NE and western KS. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist into early evening despite the lack of stronger forcing for ascent. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN valleys, this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is forecast to remain over the northern third of the US as a shortwave trough moves east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. To the east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broader zonal flow aloft over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario is expected to consolidate and strengthen as flow aloft increases over much of New England. A secondary trough over the upper MS River Valley is also expected to amplify as zonal flow aloft becomes southwesterly over the Northeast. Height falls and increasing DPVA will aid in strong surface cyclogenesis over the lower St Lawrence Valley. To the east of the deepening surface cyclone, a warm front will extend eastward across New England to the Atlantic coast, while a cold front and surface trough trails toward the southwest into the OH valley. ...New England to the Mid Atlantic... At the start of the forecast period, scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near the warm front from southern Quebec southeastward to southern New England. Insentropic ascent along the front from a 30-40 kt LLJ will continue to support scattered storms near the frontal zone through the morning hours as rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) are advected northward. In the wake of the early morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Deep-layer shear profiles of 45-60 kt support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Confidence in a corridor of locally greater severe risk remains highest across portions of southern ME, VT, NH and west-central MA. Here, area model soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3, near the climatological maximum for the region. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes appears somewhat higher. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. Across the Mid Atlantic, more isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multi-cell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado or two will remain possible with any sustained supercell. ...Upper OH to the Mid TN Valleys... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Despite veered surface flow west of the surface trough over the Mid Atlantic, rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into MT will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND later into the evening and overnight hours. ...Central Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely over parts of eastern CO, southwest NE and western KS. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist into early evening despite the lack of stronger forcing for ascent. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN valleys, this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is forecast to remain over the northern third of the US as a shortwave trough moves east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. To the east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broader zonal flow aloft over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario is expected to consolidate and strengthen as flow aloft increases over much of New England. A secondary trough over the upper MS River Valley is also expected to amplify as zonal flow aloft becomes southwesterly over the Northeast. Height falls and increasing DPVA will aid in strong surface cyclogenesis over the lower St Lawrence Valley. To the east of the deepening surface cyclone, a warm front will extend eastward across New England to the Atlantic coast, while a cold front and surface trough trails toward the southwest into the OH valley. ...New England to the Mid Atlantic... At the start of the forecast period, scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near the warm front from southern Quebec southeastward to southern New England. Insentropic ascent along the front from a 30-40 kt LLJ will continue to support scattered storms near the frontal zone through the morning hours as rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) are advected northward. In the wake of the early morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Deep-layer shear profiles of 45-60 kt support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Confidence in a corridor of locally greater severe risk remains highest across portions of southern ME, VT, NH and west-central MA. Here, area model soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3, near the climatological maximum for the region. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes appears somewhat higher. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. Across the Mid Atlantic, more isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multi-cell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado or two will remain possible with any sustained supercell. ...Upper OH to the Mid TN Valleys... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Despite veered surface flow west of the surface trough over the Mid Atlantic, rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into MT will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND later into the evening and overnight hours. ...Central Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely over parts of eastern CO, southwest NE and western KS. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist into early evening despite the lack of stronger forcing for ascent. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast into the OH/TN valleys, this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms are also possible over parts of the central and northern Plains. ...Synopsis... Mostly zonal mid-level flow is forecast to remain over the northern third of the US as a shortwave trough moves east across parts of WA and the southern Canadian Rockies. To the east, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within broader zonal flow aloft over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario is expected to consolidate and strengthen as flow aloft increases over much of New England. A secondary trough over the upper MS River Valley is also expected to amplify as zonal flow aloft becomes southwesterly over the Northeast. Height falls and increasing DPVA will aid in strong surface cyclogenesis over the lower St Lawrence Valley. To the east of the deepening surface cyclone, a warm front will extend eastward across New England to the Atlantic coast, while a cold front and surface trough trails toward the southwest into the OH valley. ...New England to the Mid Atlantic... At the start of the forecast period, scattered thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing near the warm front from southern Quebec southeastward to southern New England. Insentropic ascent along the front from a 30-40 kt LLJ will continue to support scattered storms near the frontal zone through the morning hours as rich boundary-layer moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) are advected northward. In the wake of the early morning convection, filtered solar heating will allow for moderate destabilization over much of New England. Most guidance shows 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by early to mid afternoon despite only modest low and mid-level lapse rates. More than sufficient for strong updrafts, scattered storm development is expected first near the warm front and subsequently along the trailing surface trough. Deep-layer shear profiles of 45-60 kt support both supercells and short line segments. With a favorable parameter space for organized storms, damaging winds, isolated hail and a few tornadoes are possible. Confidence in a corridor of locally greater severe risk remains highest across portions of southern ME, VT, NH and west-central MA. Here, area model soundings show large curved hodographs with ESRH of 250-350 m2/s2 and STP values of 1.5-3, near the climatological maximum for the region. With the potential for a mix of supercells and line segments, the risk for tornadoes appears somewhat higher. Eventual upscale growth into a linear cluster may also support a locally greater risk of damaging winds toward the coast later this evening. Additional storms are possible as the cold front moves through later this evening, though multiple rounds of prior convection may limit the severity of any subsequent convection later this evening. Across the Mid Atlantic, more isolated storm coverage is expected with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for organized multi-cell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds, and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado or two will remain possible with any sustained supercell. ...Upper OH to the Mid TN Valleys... Ahead of the trailing cold front, scattered thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon. Despite veered surface flow west of the surface trough over the Mid Atlantic, rich boundary-layer moisture will support a broad plume of moderate instability. Several bands of thunderstorms should track east southeast along the southern periphery of the enhanced flow aloft. Sufficient for some storm organization, 20-30 kt of effective shear should support a few clusters capable of damaging gusts and isolated hail. ...Northern Plains... Accompanying the wave over southern Canada and the Northwest, a deepening surface cyclone with a cold front trailing southward into MT will serve as a focus for isolated storm development this afternoon and evening. Low-level southeasterly flow will transport a confined plume of modest low-level moisture into parts of east MT, resulting in a corridor of MLCAPE from 500-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for organized convection capable of isolated damaging winds and hail, but large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough may tend to remain north of the international border. Development of a severe storm or two across east MT is possible by early evening, which would then potentially spread into northwest ND later into the evening and overnight hours. ...Central Plains... Very warm temperatures are expected along a lee trough across the central Plains this afternoon. With temperatures near 100 F, scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely over parts of eastern CO, southwest NE and western KS. Deep inverted-v profiles will support a risk for severe gusts with strong downdrafts. Located on the southern periphery of the stronger upper-level flow, these storms may persist into early evening despite the lack of stronger forcing for ascent. ..Lyons/Wendt.. 06/23/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 1381 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 447... FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHWESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1381 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...parts of west central through northern Illinois...southwestern lower Michigan...northwestern Indiana Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447... Valid 230343Z - 230545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447 continues. SUMMARY...An evolving line of storms may pose some further increase in potential for strong to severe surface gusts for another hour or two. But this appears likely to diminish after around 1 or 2 AM CDT, as storms weaken while continuing east-southeastward through the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley vicinity. A new severe weather watch is not anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually consolidating into a line generally coincident with strengthening low-level frontogenetic forcing. This trails a developing surface cyclone now migrating across Lake Michigan into lower Michigan, and will continue to slowly advance east-southeastward across the southern Lake Michigan and northern Illinois vicinity into the overnight hours. Although subtle low-level moisture return is still possible immediately ahead the evolving line, beneath a 30-40 kt west-southwesterly jet around 850 mb, the downstream boundary-layer, in general, is somewhat drier and characterized by increasingly weak potential instability beneath relatively warm mid-level air. So, it appears that ongoing convection could maintain intensity, or perhaps intensify a bit further, with sub-cloud evaporative cooling contributing to downward mixing of momentum and a few strong to severe surface gusts during the next couple of hours. However, beyond 06-07Z, this seems likely to diminish as convection begins to weaken. ..Kerr.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 41419007 41668932 41848824 42018665 42558619 42358539 41258707 40818876 40019060 40789076 41129045 41419007 Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE IRK TO 15 NE BRL TO 30 SE RFD TO 50 SSE RAC. ..KERR..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-037-043-057-063-067-071-089-091-093-095-099-105- 109-123-125-143-155-169-175-179-187-197-203-230540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU DE KALB DUPAGE FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON PEORIA PUTNAM SCHUYLER STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WILL WOODFORD INC089-230540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE IRK TO 15 NE BRL TO 30 SE RFD TO 50 SSE RAC. ..KERR..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-037-043-057-063-067-071-089-091-093-095-099-105- 109-123-125-143-155-169-175-179-187-197-203-230540- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU DE KALB DUPAGE FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LA SALLE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MARSHALL MASON PEORIA PUTNAM SCHUYLER STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WILL WOODFORD INC089-230540- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LAKE Read more

WW 447 SEVERE TSTM IA IL IN MO LM 230035Z - 230600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 447 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 735 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Eastern Iowa Northern and Western Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Northern Missouri Lake Michigan * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 735 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms occurring along and ahead of a cold front should pose some threat for severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph this evening while the move generally eastward. Isolated severe hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter also appears possible. A tornado or two may occur in/near northern Illinois. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of Lamoni IA to 60 miles east northeast of Marseilles IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 446... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE CDJ TO 10 E IRK TO 25 WNW BRL TO 40 WSW RFD TO 20 SSE RAC. ..KERR..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-011-031-037-043-057-063-067-071-073-089-091-093-095- 097-099-103-105-109-111-123-125-131-141-143-155-169-175-179-187- 195-197-203-230440- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN BUREAU COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM SCHUYLER STARK TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WILL WOODFORD INC089-230440- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0447 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW LWD TO 5 S OTM TO 30 NE OTM. ..KERR..06/23/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...LSX...LOT...ILX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 447 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-007-009-011-015-031-037-043-057-063-067-071-073-089-091- 093-095-097-099-103-105-109-111-123-125-131-141-143-155-161-169- 175-177-179-187-195-197-201-203-230340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BOONE BROWN BUREAU CARROLL COOK DE KALB DUPAGE FULTON GRUNDY HANCOCK HENDERSON HENRY KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL KNOX LAKE LA SALLE LEE LIVINGSTON MCDONOUGH MCHENRY MARSHALL MASON MERCER OGLE PEORIA PUTNAM ROCK ISLAND SCHUYLER STARK STEPHENSON TAZEWELL WARREN WHITESIDE WILL WINNEBAGO WOODFORD INC089-230340- IN Read more

MD 1380 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 446... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1380 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0729 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southern Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 446... Valid 230029Z - 230200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 446 continues. SUMMARY...Tornadoes remain possible with remaining discrete and line-embedded supercells this evening. Local extension in time of WW 446 will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms, with embedded supercells continues eastward through south-central Wisconsin. One embedded supercell produced a radar confirmed tornado just southeast of the town of Marshall. On the Green/Rock County border, a more discrete supercell is also moving east. The KMXK VAD shows large low-level SRH values. The environment just south of the warm front will remain favorable for tornadoes as this activity moves eastward toward Milwaukee this evening. ..Wendt.. 06/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX... LAT...LON 42558965 42788965 42928955 43108937 43288891 43238845 43088780 42708769 42528783 42518840 42558965 Read more

MD 1379 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 1379 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...West-central into northeast Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 222355Z - 230200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in severe threat is expected for western and northern portions of Illinois. Damaging winds are the expected main hazard, but a conditional tornado threat will also exist. A watch is likely this evening. DISCUSSION...Some increase in severe potential can be expected across portions of western into northern Illinois this evening. Activity currently in Wisconsin near the surface low/warm front may eventually congeal and push farther southward into Illinois. Additionally, storms along the cold front may move in from the west. The current expectation is that activity will generally be more linear in terms of storm mode with primarily a threat of damaging winds. While 850 mb winds are expected to modestly increase this evening, the low-level shear vector orientation will not be overly favorable for QLCS circulations. It is possible some discrete elements could develop ahead of the front/convective line which would pose a marginally greater tornado risk. Another uncertainty is the low-level moisture with eastward extent. Current surface observations show a dry pocket in the Chicagoland vicinity. Some higher dewpoints do exist to the southwest and should make some attempt to advect northeastward tonight, but the exact magnitude of moisture return is uncertain. ..Wendt/Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 41878951 42338894 42418810 41938776 41138817 40129011 40179072 40359096 40759096 41409014 41878951 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0803 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening across parts of the Midwest, mainly posing a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated damaging winds are possible over southern New England. ...01z Update Midwest... The primary severe risk through the next several hours across the upper Midwest remains with the cluster of supercells ongoing over southern WI. Strong low-level shear along the modified differential heating zone will continue to support the potential for a few tornadoes, especially with any supercells that are able to remain relatively discrete. Otherwise, ongoing upscale growth is expected to continue and one or more clusters/line segments appears likely to emerge and track southeast across the remainder of southeastern WI and northern IL. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of QLCS tornadoes appear likely into this evening. To the southwest of the WI cluster, additional storm development over central/southern IA, northern MO, and western IL has thus far been slow to organize along a weak cold front. Likely due to poor mid-level lapse rates, convection has slowly increased in coverage and intensity, and may continue to do so, as the front accelerates and outflow consolidates. Given relatively strong mid-level shear profiles (effective shear 40-45 kt) and sufficient buoyancy, one or more clusters of strong to severe storms may evolve and continue through this evening. Damaging gusts appear to be the most likely threat, though some hail and a brief tornado will remain possible. ...Southern New England... A cluster of severe storms has persisted across parts of upstate NY and eastern PA this evening ahead of broad troughing over the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. While buoyancy is expected to continue decreasing with nocturnal stabilization, a few of these storms may persist for a few more hours this evening. Increasing mid-level shear ahead of the consolidating shortwave trough farther west will support organized mutlicells or transient supercells capable of occasional damaging gusts and isolated hail. Additional, likely elevated, storms may develop overnight as low-level warm advection increases over portions of northern New England. ...Dakotas... Very isolated thunderstorms have developed within the post-frontal regime in the wake of the consolidating Great Lakes trough across the Dakotas. While buoyancy remains modest, relatively strong wind profiles suggest a storm or two may remain strong enough to produce isolated hail or damaging gusts into this evening. Have modified the existing MRGL to capture the remaining environment more conducive for hail and wind potential. A summary of remaining changes follows; MRGL was removed across portions of southwest FL and the Four Corners. Storms have decreased in coverage and waning buoyancy suggests the risk for a sustained severe threat is low. An occasional stronger storm may persist in southern CO for another hour or two, but the severe risk should continue to decrease near and after dark. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2024 Read more