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West Central Texas was warm and humid with rainfall accumulations ranging from 0.5-3 inches. Soil conditions were good with warm-season forages growing and being cut and baled. Increasing pest problems were reported in some areas, with grasshoppers becoming a widespread issue. Cotton planting was completed with earlier planted fields doing well but later planted cotton struggling to emerge in the dry soil and high heat. Grain sorghum was progressing with most plants in the flowering stage. Some corn was impacted by hail but looked to be in fair to good condition overall. Hay season looked promising, and pecan outlooks were optimistic. Pasture conditions ranged from fair to good, but the high temperatures were causing concern for fire. Rangeland conditions were good, and grasses recovered well, but weeds were becoming a concern. Lakes and stock tanks were still rising with some stock tanks reported to be full. Livestock conditions ranged from good to excellent, but sheep and goat producers were dealing with internal parasites. Cattle were in good shape and prices remained strong. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 18, 2024 West Central Texas had from no rain to 5 inches across the district with temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to low 90s. Reports of hail and wind damage included hail impacting wheat progress, with some farms reporting wind damage from storms. Despite storm damage, wheat crops ranged from good to excellent condition. In some parts of the region, wheat and oat pastures continued to mature but most would be grazed or baled for hay. In other areas, the wheat was drying down and harvest will start soon for dryland acres with low yields expected. Grain and forage sorghum planting was ongoing. Corn looked fair but needs more rain to supplement the irrigation. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from poor to good, with some areas improved due to recent rains. Forage, mainly cool season maturing forages, was appearing with producers managing weeds after the recent rains. Cattle continued to look good with body condition looking good on all classes. Sheep and goat producers need an aggressive parasite management program with the recent rains. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 7, 2024

Southwest Texas received rainfall ranging from 0.5-1.25 inches, which helped to replenish soil moisture, but more rainfall was needed. The dry conditions were beginning to take their toll on rangelands, pastures and row crops. Forages, native plants and wildflowers were doing well. Hay harvest was underway, but production was below normal. Crop conditions ranged from poor to good. The hot and humid conditions were reducing feed efficiency in cattle, but body conditions were good. Webworms were beginning to establish themselves in pecan trees, which could potentially pose problems for producers in the future. Livestock benefited from better rangeland conditions, but producers were still supplementing herd diets. Cattle markets were good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 18, 2024 Rainfall in Southwest Texas averaged 3-4 inches with temperatures in the 90s. There were reports of strong winds in most areas that caused minimal damage to trees and row crops. Row crop conditions looked good despite the hot temperatures and lack of moisture. Dryland corn was beginning to stunt, and warm-season grasses were beginning to seed. Bermuda grass hay fields were being cut and baled and pastures were beginning to decline due to the windy and hot temperatures. Backyard gardens were perking up from the small amount of rain and sunshine. Livestock looked good, and whitetail does were having babies and becoming more active. Cattle body conditions looked good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 4, 2024 Extreme storm conditions brought over 2.5 inches of rainfall and hail to some areas. High winds also caused some damage to agricultural operations, including downed trees and limbs. There also was some damage reported to building roofs. There was wind damage reported in corn, sorghum and cotton, particularly on the outer edges of the fields. Range and pasture conditions improved, though deep subsoil moisture remained a concern as many native pecan trees did not leaf out this year. Warmer, drier weather was predicted, and the evapotranspiration rates were expected to rise soon with higher temperatures. Wheat and oat harvests began with higher-than-normal yields reported. Cattle were grazing on pastures. Pastures continued to look good, and hay production was ongoing in some areas. Livestock diets were being supplemented and were in mostly fair condition. Whitetail deer does were starting to drop fawns, and bucks were active. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 21, 2024 Precipitation amounts across Southwest Texas ranged from none to almost 2 inches in isolated pockets. Soil moisture was lacking throughout the region and no runoff water was reported. It was cooler in some areas with overcast, high humidity and a hot week expected. The rain helped allow pasture, forage and range conditions to remain good. Both irrigated and dryland crops were improving, and corn and sorghum continued to grow, having recovered from recent hail damage. Desert termites continued to devastate parts of some areas and a heavy caterpillar presence was noticed in pecans and other trees. The early season hay baling has been noticed. Soils were retaining moisture and stock tanks have filled up to a noticeable amount. Livestock body condition scores averaged from 4-6 and producers were still cutting numbers as the region was not showing real signs of recovery. However, livestock conditions remained good. Deer and other wildlife activity increased, and young bucks were seen more frequently. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 7, 2024

Weather conditions in South Texas ranged from hot and dry to mild and humid with very little rainfall. Sorghum fields looked good with most areas reporting seeding and crops turning color. Sesame and watermelon crops looked good and were almost ready for harvest. Many producers were expected to begin sunflower harvest soon. Cotton conditions ranged from fair to good with most areas seeing bolls and early planted cotton in the flowering stages. Whiteflies and chili thrips were in cotton, and aphids were reported on some late-panted grain sorghum fields. Corn fields were in good condition with harvest underway in most areas. Pasture conditions varied from poor to fair with ranchers in some areas already selling calves at lighter weights and supplementing cattle with hay and protein. Livestock and wildlife conditions were good, and cattle prices remained strong in most areas. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 18, 2024 The district received rainfall ranging from zero to 4 inches with hot, humid conditions. The grain sorghum harvest started in many areas. Sudan and Bermuda grass fields were baled. Corn was a few weeks away from harvest. Sesame pods were being set, and fields looked clean of insects. Very few crop fields were being irrigated as most irrigation districts were out of water allotments. Turfgrass was being harvested. Hay was being bailed in many places, with producers in some areas gearing up for their second cutting. Fruit and vegetable producers were harvesting and moving their crop as quickly as possible. Cotton fields were flowering. Pastures were green and lush, and irrigated hay fields were in good condition in some areas with a few areas suffering from the extreme heat and dry conditions. Livestock conditions ranged from poor to good. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued in some areas with many landowners planning to thin their herds to prepare for a dry summer. Cattle prices were strong. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 4, 2024 South Texas reported very warm to hot conditions and rainfall ranging from a trace to 2 inches. There were reports of hail and straight-line winds that damaged irrigation pivots and outbuildings. Corn and grain sorghum fields were expected to be harvested earlier this year. Cotton planting continued, and planted fields were beginning to show growth. Watermelon harvest continued with drip irrigation taking place. Sesame fields were faring well. Oats were harvested, and wheat harvest was good in most areas while some activity halted due to rain. Hay producers were cutting Bermuda grass fields and should bale soon. Hay yields ranged from fair to good in most areas. Range and pasture conditions were poor to good. Livestock and wildlife conditions were poor to good with supplemental feeding occurring in most areas. Cattle were in good condition but needed supplemental feed. Some sale barns reported lower volumes with a slight decrease in feeder cattle prices while others reported strong prices. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 21, 2024 South Texas has seen mild temperatures with humid and windy conditions with rainfall averaging from dry to 2 1/2 inches in some areas. Soil conditions ranged from poor to adequate. Corn and sorghum crops in some areas continued to progress but were showing signs of moisture stress in late morning in some plants. Row crops in some areas were looking good in irrigated areas. In Hidalgo County, flea hopper pressure was reported in untreated cotton and yellow sugarcane aphid pressure was reported in grain sorghum. Citrus was being irrigated, but some orchards were in irrigation districts that were out of water. Irrigation was getting critical for most producers because of extremely low water levels in Falcon Lake. Irrigation districts and some municipalities in Cameron County were continuing to implement water usage restrictions as supplies continued to decline. Strawberries were being harvested with other spring and summer vegetables in some areas. Wheat and oat harvest has begun in most areas and cotton planting will be completed. Peanut planting started in Frio County. Producers were busy harvesting hay in some areas but other fields needed rain to finish growing. Grazer fields were still growing but were showing signs of moisture stress. Coastal Bermuda grass fields were producing good hay bales, and watermelon fields were developing in normal conditions in Maverick County. Pasture and rangeland conditions ranged from poor to fair. Beef cattle producers in most areas continued to take advantage of strong market prices as they continued to cull herds prior to summer. A slight seasonal decrease in feeder cattle was reported this week. Quail were pairing up and notable sightings were being reported. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 7, 2024

MD 1330 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435... FOR OK AND FAR NORTHERN TX PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWEST OK...SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1330 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0924 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...OK and far northern TX Panhandles into northwest OK...southwest/central/eastern KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435... Valid 190224Z - 190400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435 continues. SUMMARY...Some severe wind/hail threat may persist through late evening. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong storms is gradually propagating southward across the central/eastern OK Panhandle, and this trend may continue (with some additional backbuilding) as a strong low-level jet remains focused across the region. While deep-layer flow/shear decreases with southward extent, moderate to strong buoyancy will support a continued risk of isolated hail and strong/severe gusts, which may slowly spread into the far northern TX Panhandle and extreme northwest OK. Farther northeast, a couple of bowing line segments that earlier developed over west-central KS appear to be weakening somewhat, though some threat for isolated severe gusts and perhaps some hail may continue beyond the 03Z expiration time of WW 435. Local watch extension may be considered if short-term trends continue to support maintenance of an organized severe risk. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 36860181 38049933 38479857 39129766 39349623 38849594 37799593 36659948 36340099 36590208 36860181 Read more

WW 0435 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW EHA TO 30 NW MHK. WW 435 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190300Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1330 ..DEAN..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 435 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-009-025-033-047-057-097-113-115-119-145-151-155-159-169- 175-185-190300- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BARTON CLARK COMANCHE EDWARDS FORD KIOWA MCPHERSON MARION MEADE PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE SALINE SEWARD STAFFORD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 435 SEVERE TSTM KS 181940Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kansas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to strengthen along a cold front this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for large to very large hail up to around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and severe wind gusts of 60-80 mph. The threat for severe winds may increase through the evening if one or more bowing clusters develops and spreads eastward into central Kansas. A tornado or two also appears possible, especially if any supercells can persist across southwest Kansas this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles northeast of Russell KS to 35 miles east of Liberal KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 433...WW 434... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 1329 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 433... FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1329 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...central/southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin Concerning...Tornado Watch 433... Valid 190000Z - 190200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 433 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for strong to severe wind continues within WW433. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across Minnesota. Storm mode has largely been linear along an eastward-moving cold front. A few sub-severe clusters continue out ahead of the main line. Ahead of this line, an unstable air mass extends across eastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin with temperatures in the low to mid 80s F and dewpoints in the upper 60s to 70s F. Within this region, surface objective analysis shows MLCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg. Much of the deep-layer shear remains along and on the cool side of the approaching cold front. Downstream severe threat will be dependent on upscale growth and strength of any developing cold pool within the main line. A watch may be needed east of WW433 if trends show potential for storms to develop a deep cold pool, and increased potential for a damaging-wind threat. ..Thornton/Edwards.. 06/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD... LAT...LON 43719534 44529506 45559460 46169441 46929368 47319259 47259205 47199174 46679114 46229113 45669122 45139141 44859153 44279195 44019215 43779259 43529313 43509467 43539488 43719534 Read more

MD 1328 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...435... FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1328 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Areas affected...Southwest into central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...435... Valid 182336Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, 435 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for severe gusts, hail, and a brief tornado may persist into mid evening. DISCUSSION...A frontal band of strong to severe storms from southwest into central KS has been gradually shifting eastward late this afternoon into the early evening. While some consolidation of storms has occurred, multiple embedded cells persist, which will continue to pose a threat of isolated hail. Transient low-level mesocyclones continue to be noted on radar across southwest KS, and some threat for a brief tornado could persist within the vorticity-rich environment near the front. However, a general tendency for strengthening and expanding outflows may result in severe gusts becoming an increasingly prominent hazard across the region, as noted with a recent 60 kt gust in Russell, KS. A continued tendency toward backbuilding and redevelopment may continue through the evening across southwest KS, with a southerly low-level jet expected to remain focused across that region. Farther north, there may be some tendency for gradual weakening with time later this evening from north-central into northeast KS. However, some severe threat could persist beyond the 01Z expiration time of WW 434, potentially necessitating local watch extension or new watch issuance. ..Dean/Edwards.. 06/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37120136 38130013 38749942 39899791 39929740 39859715 39549709 39079736 38009866 37569941 37269986 37030047 37120136 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists across southwest Kansas. ...01z Update... A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery. Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation, for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley, storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with this activity. ..Darrow.. 06/19/2024 Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW OTG TO 20 E RWF TO 15 NE STC TO 40 W DLH TO 20 NNW BFW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329 ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-013-015-017-019-025-033-037-043-047-053-059-063-065-079- 085-091-095-103-115-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171- 190140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MILLE LACS NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW OTG TO 20 E RWF TO 15 NE STC TO 40 W DLH TO 20 NNW BFW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329 ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-013-015-017-019-025-033-037-043-047-053-059-063-065-079- 085-091-095-103-115-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171- 190140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MILLE LACS NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0433 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW OTG TO 20 E RWF TO 15 NE STC TO 40 W DLH TO 20 NNW BFW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1329 ..THORNTON..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 433 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC003-013-015-017-019-025-033-037-043-047-053-059-063-065-079- 085-091-095-103-115-123-131-139-141-143-147-161-163-165-171- 190140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BLUE EARTH BROWN CARLTON CARVER CHISAGO COTTONWOOD DAKOTA FARIBAULT FREEBORN HENNEPIN ISANTI JACKSON KANABEC LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MILLE LACS NICOLLET PINE RAMSEY RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY STEELE WASECA WASHINGTON WATONWAN WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 433 TORNADO MN 181825Z - 190100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 433 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Minnesota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a cold front should pose a threat for a few tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60-70 mph, and large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter as they spread east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Ely MN to 30 miles east southeast of Worthington MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0434 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO 40 ESE HSI TO 15 ENE EAR TO 30 W OLU TO 20 ENE LNK TO 30 NW DNS TO 15 E SLB TO 20 E OTG. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1328 PORTIONS OF WW 434 WILL BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND 01Z. ..DEAN..06/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 434 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC009-025-027-029-033-047-063-071-081-085-091-093-109-129-137- 147-151-155-161-165-187-189-195-197-190140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDUBON CALHOUN CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CRAWFORD EMMET FREMONT HANCOCK HARRISON HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH MILLS MONTGOMERY PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS POTTAWATTAMIE SAC SHELBY WEBSTER WINNEBAGO WORTH WRIGHT KSC027-029-117-123-143-157-201-190140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more