Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220503
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

MD 1370 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NE AND WESTERN/NORTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1370 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE and western/northern IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445... Valid 220338Z - 220445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may continue this evening, but downstream watch issuance is not anticipated at this time. DISCUSSION...The leading cell in a band of loosely organized convection in central/eastern NE recently produced a measured severe wind gust to 50 kt (58 mph) in Merrick County NE. A separate area of thunderstorms also remains over northern IA, along and near a front. Recent VWP trends from KOAX/KDMX have shown a gradual increase in a low-level jet, and related 0-1-km shear. Transient low-level rotation and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible in the short term with updrafts embedded within these broader areas of convection. But, isolated severe/damaging winds up to 60 mph should remain the primary threat in the short term, with around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and a minimum in MLCIN noted in the latest mesoanalysis estimates of instability across eastern NE and western/northern IA. A local extension in area and expiration time of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 remains a possibility across parts of eastern NE and vicinity. But, given current expectations that the overall severe threat will become increasingly isolated with time late this evening, additional/downstream watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Gleason/Edwards.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41149816 41509729 43099607 43459482 43179344 41159592 40789737 41149816 Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW EAR TO 25 S BUB TO 20 WNW OLU TO 15 N OLU TO 20 NNW TQE TO 35 N SUX TO 20 WSW FRM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1370 ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...GID...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-141-149-167-193-220440- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON O'BRIEN PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC019-023-037-077-079-081-093-121-125-141-143-163-175-185- 220440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO BUTLER COLFAX GREELEY HALL HAMILTON HOWARD MERRICK NANCE PLATTE POLK SHERMAN VALLEY YORK Read more

WW 445 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 212030Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 445 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Central and Eastern Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a boundary extending from southwest to northeast Nebraska and into northwest Iowa. A few supercells are possible, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two could also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles southwest of North Platte NE to 25 miles north northeast of Spencer IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442...WW 443...WW 444... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE IML TO 25 WSW SUX TO 20 ESE YKN TO 30 WSW FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369 ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...GID...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-193-220340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC063-105-133-220340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON NOBLES ROCK NEC011-019-041-043-047-051-057-063-073-077-079-081-085-087-093- 111-119-121-125-137-141-143-145-163-167-173-175-179-185- 220340- NE Read more

MD 1369 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 445... FOR PARTS OF NE INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHWEST IA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1369 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0825 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Areas affected...Parts of NE into far southeast SD...northwest IA...and far southwest MN Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445... Valid 220125Z - 220300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 continues. SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail/wind threat continues this evening. DISCUSSION...Training cells are ongoing early this evening across south-central into eastern NE along and south of a front. The downstream 00Z sounding from OAX shows generally poor mid-level lapse rates, with a long/skinny MLCAPE profile. Still, enough low-level and deep-layer shear remains present to support organized convection, including the potential for supercells. Any thunderstorm which can remain at least semi-discrete should have some hail threat, even with the poor lapse rates aloft and associated warm mid-level temperatures. An isolated threat for severe/damaging winds may also continue, especially if thunderstorms can congeal into a small bowing cluster this evening in tandem with a gradually strengthening low-level jet. The overall tornado threat may be tempered by continued messy storm modes, although low-level shear should gradually increase this evening. Depending on convective trends, a local extension in area for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 445 may be warranted across parts of central/eastern NE. ..Gleason.. 06/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40850119 41829868 42139825 42749832 43089800 43539667 43809530 43719471 43079458 42569486 41539634 40529860 40020038 40030113 40310131 40850119 Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W FCL TO 30 NNW CYS TO 30 ENE CDR. WW 443 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 220300Z. ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC069-075-095-115-123-220300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LARIMER LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-220300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W FCL TO 30 NNW CYS TO 30 ENE CDR. WW 443 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 220300Z. ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC069-075-095-115-123-220300- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LARIMER LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220300- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC015-021-220300- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 443 SEVERE TSTM CO MT NE WY 211925Z - 220300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 443 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Colorado South Central Montana Western Nebraska Panhandle Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to intensify this afternoon across eastern Wyoming and adjacent areas, with a few supercell storms possible. Large hail is the main threat, with a few instances of damaging winds also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Sheridan WY to 30 miles south of Cheyenne WY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 441...WW 442... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0443 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW LAR TO 35 NW CDR. ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...BOU...BYZ...CYS...RIW...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 443 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC069-075-095-115-123-220240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LARIMER LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WELD NEC007-013-033-045-105-123-157-165-220240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SIOUX WYC001-015-021-031-220240- WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY GOSHEN LARAMIE Read more

WW 0445 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 445 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1369 ..GLEASON..06/22/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...GID...GLD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 445 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-041-059-119-141-143-149-167-193-220240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY MNC063-105-133-220240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JACKSON NOBLES ROCK NEC003-009-011-015-017-019-027-041-043-047-051-057-063-071-073- 077-079-081-085-087-089-093-107-111-113-115-117-119-121-125-137- 139-141-143-145-149-163-167-171-173-175-179-183-185-220240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MONTANA...EASTERN WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible this evening across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest, and parts of the central Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. ...01Z Update... Downstream of broad, weak mid/upper troughing, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm activity persists across the Rockies, adjacent portions of the Southwest and Great Plains, with additional widely scattered activity focused near the northern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging centered over the Mid South. While convection across most areas already appears in the process of slowly waning, an evolving cluster of storms across parts of central into northeastern Nebraska could still strengthen and organize further this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. The environment across the Missouri Valley, ahead of it, remains potentially unstable, with CAPE on the order of 1500-2000+ J/kg, as a belt of 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly to westerly flow in the 850-500 mb layer noses northeast of the Kansas/Nebraska border toward the Upper Midwest. ..Kerr.. 06/22/2024 Read more