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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Recent high-res ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for elevated fire weather conditions across northwest NV into southern/southeast OR; however, increasing mid/high-level cloud cover should modulate diurnal RH reductions across this region. Thunderstorm development remains probable across the western to central Great Basin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a plume of 1.0+ inch PWAT values (already noted in GOES imagery over southern CA) migrates northward ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. While some dilution of this moisture is expected over the next 24 hours, model solutions and forecast soundings suggest that most thunderstorms should produce wetting rainfall. Consequently, confidence in the dry lightning threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Recent high-res ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for elevated fire weather conditions across northwest NV into southern/southeast OR; however, increasing mid/high-level cloud cover should modulate diurnal RH reductions across this region. Thunderstorm development remains probable across the western to central Great Basin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a plume of 1.0+ inch PWAT values (already noted in GOES imagery over southern CA) migrates northward ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. While some dilution of this moisture is expected over the next 24 hours, model solutions and forecast soundings suggest that most thunderstorms should produce wetting rainfall. Consequently, confidence in the dry lightning threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Recent high-res ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for elevated fire weather conditions across northwest NV into southern/southeast OR; however, increasing mid/high-level cloud cover should modulate diurnal RH reductions across this region. Thunderstorm development remains probable across the western to central Great Basin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a plume of 1.0+ inch PWAT values (already noted in GOES imagery over southern CA) migrates northward ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. While some dilution of this moisture is expected over the next 24 hours, model solutions and forecast soundings suggest that most thunderstorms should produce wetting rainfall. Consequently, confidence in the dry lightning threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Recent high-res ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for elevated fire weather conditions across northwest NV into southern/southeast OR; however, increasing mid/high-level cloud cover should modulate diurnal RH reductions across this region. Thunderstorm development remains probable across the western to central Great Basin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a plume of 1.0+ inch PWAT values (already noted in GOES imagery over southern CA) migrates northward ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. While some dilution of this moisture is expected over the next 24 hours, model solutions and forecast soundings suggest that most thunderstorms should produce wetting rainfall. Consequently, confidence in the dry lightning threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Recent high-res ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for elevated fire weather conditions across northwest NV into southern/southeast OR; however, increasing mid/high-level cloud cover should modulate diurnal RH reductions across this region. Thunderstorm development remains probable across the western to central Great Basin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a plume of 1.0+ inch PWAT values (already noted in GOES imagery over southern CA) migrates northward ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. While some dilution of this moisture is expected over the next 24 hours, model solutions and forecast soundings suggest that most thunderstorms should produce wetting rainfall. Consequently, confidence in the dry lightning threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build into the Great Basin and extend into the Northwest on Tuesday. Overall, mid-level winds will be weaker across these areas than on previous days. There is some potential for subtle shortwave troughs within the flow to enhance winds in parts of northwest Nevada and southeast Oregon. An upper-level trough will approach the Northwest late in the period. The surface pressure pattern will be rather nebulous for much of the day. A surface low will deepen within the Columbia Basin vicinity, but this will primarily occur during the evening/overnight. At this time, only locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected from parts of northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southern Idaho. A plume of mid-level moisture will push farther north and west as well. A weak shortwave trough is expected to promote thunderstorms along the Sierra Front in Nevada. The areas where confidence in storm coverage is highest will see an increase in PWAT values to near/over an inch. Drier storms could occur farther east in an area where mid-level moisture is less, but confidence in coverage is also much lower. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 24 19:21:03 UTC 2024.

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW GSB TO 30 E RWI TO 20 SW ECG TO 80 E ORF. ..BENTLEY..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-019-031-049-055-061-079-095-103-107-117-129-133-137-141- 147-177-187-242040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BRUNSWICK CARTERET CRAVEN DARE DUPLIN GREENE HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231-250-252-242040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER PAMLICO SOUND PAMLICO AND PUNGO RIVERS Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE RWI TO 30 W ECG TO 60 E ORF. ..BENTLEY..06/24/24 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...ILM... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-019-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-095-103-107- 117-129-133-137-139-141-143-147-177-187-241940- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN GATES GREENE HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON AMZ131-135-136-137-150-152-154-156-158-230-231-250-252-ANZ633-658- 241940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ALLIGATOR RIVER Read more

MD 1393 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 1393 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and far southeast Virginia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241640Z - 241815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina. DISCUSSION...Storms have started to develop across southeast Virginia and northeast North Carolina in a hot/unstable airmass featuring temperatures in the low 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. This has yielded 2500 J/kg MLCAPE and an uncapped atmosphere. Initial storms have shown occasional supercellular characteristics with some multicell clustering also apparent. This storm organization can likely be attributed to the 30-35 knot westerly flow aloft apparent on the AKQ VWP. Expect additional storms to form along and ahead of the cold front as it sags south across eastern North Carolina. The modest shear combined with strong instability will permit a continued damaging wind threat through the afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed to cover this threat. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 34957919 36057830 37237640 37257573 36907573 36367562 36017540 35617538 35157548 34927608 34547647 34517665 34617683 34227768 34957919 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the central Great Plains and Midwest, mainly during from late afternoon and evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two may occur. ...Central/southern Great Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... Overall forecast confidence for the most likely outcome tomorrow is low with large spread in potential scenarios remaining evident. How MCS activity evolves later today into tonight will strongly modulate tomorrow's potential risk. Despite the uncertainty, the general trend is for expansion of level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks south/westward in parts of the Great Plains to Mid-MS Valley region where confidence in storm coverage during the late afternoon and evening is relatively higher than across the Great Lakes. An MCS or remnants of one should be ongoing Tuesday morning in the central to southern Great Lakes vicinity. At least an isolated severe threat may accompany this convection, but an overall weakening trend is expected in mid to late morning. Meanwhile, the cold front that moves through the Dakotas/MN today will take on a more west-to-east orientation from parts of central to eastern NE the northern IL vicinity by tomorrow afternoon, with potential for one or more outflow boundaries to the south of this front. Strong to locally extreme buoyancy (with MLCAPE above 4000 J/kg) will likely develop near/south of the front, in areas that are not overly influenced by morning convection. Outside the influence of any MCVs, mid-level west-northwesterly flow will be decreasing with southern extent across the warm-moist sector. It should still be adequate for multicell clustering and upscale growth with south-southeast moving cold pools. It is possible that some areas of ongoing morning convection will intensify around midday into the afternoon. More probable scenario is for widely scattered storm development along the primary front and any remnant outflow boundaries, centered over the Mid-MO to Mid-MS Valleys. Isolated high-based convection may also develop within a hot and well-mixed regime across the higher plains from western KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The favorable thermodynamic environment will support large hail potential with potential for discrete supercells, along the NE/IA portion of the front. Very large hail is most probable along the western flank of this development amid moderate west-northwesterly mid/upper flow. Clustering/upscale growth will probably occur within multiple separate regimes, which should result in two or more corridors of greater damaging-wind potential. Some severe threat could eventually spread into parts of the Ohio Valley, Ozarks, and possibly the southern Plains, though the southern extent of the organized severe risk remains rather uncertain. Further outlook adjustments may be required in later outlook cycles, depending on evolution of D1 convection and potentially greater predictability across guidance. ..Grams.. 06/24/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241710
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 24 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch