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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN IOWA...CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND MUCH OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this evening, and perhaps consolidate into an organizing system with potential to produce swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight across parts of southern Nebraska and northern Kansas through northern and central Missouri. ...01Z Update... A weak surface front/differential heating zone, beneath a suppressed plume of elevated mixed-layer air emanating from the Intermountain West, has become a focus for scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development. This currently extends east-southeast of the Black Hills through north central/northeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa. Near the southern fringe of mid-level height falls associated with a short wave trough, forecast to dig through the northern Great Plains and middle Missouri Valley region overnight, it appears that this boundary will advance through the lower Missouri Valley and adjacent portions of the central Great Plains. Models suggest that the front will be reinforced by strengthening convective outflow associated with a considerable further increase in thunderstorm development, beneath modestly sheared west-northwesterly mid-level flow. South of the front, a seasonably moist and strongly heated boundary layer is still characterized by large CAPE (up to 4000 J/kg), beneath warm thermodynamic profiles with steep mid-level lapse rates. Inflow of this air may support upscale growing and consolidating clusters with potential to become well organized and accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts. This could include one or two developing swaths of strong to severe gusts overnight. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2024 Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S PIA TO 15 SE SPI TO 40 NNW SLO TO 25 N SLO TO 25 SSW BMG TO 20 ESE BMG TO 45 NW LUK. ..BENTLEY..06/25/24 ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC001-009-017-021-051-061-101-117-129-135-137-149-159-167-169- 171-252240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BROWN CASS CHRISTIAN FAYETTE GREENE LAWRENCE MACOUPIN MENARD MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIKE RICHLAND SANGAMON SCHUYLER SCOTT INC005-013-027-031-071-079-083-093-101-252240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTHOLOMEW BROWN DAVIESS DECATUR JACKSON JENNINGS KNOX LAWRENCE MARTIN Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252345
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Residents of Staunton were asked to conserve water voluntarily after the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality issued a drought warning advisory for the city and larger Shenandoah region. “The water level in the Staunton Reservoir, one of the city’s drinking sources, is dropping,” according to Staunton’s engagement and communications manager. “Water stopped overflowing the dam at the end of last week. Groundwater levels have also dropped from low to very low. Hotter temperatures and lack of rainfall have led to higher water usage.” WHSV Online (Harrisonburg, Va.), June 25, 2024

The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, working with the Virginia Drought Monitoring Task Force, issued a drought warning advisory for 12 counties and a drought watch advisory for 95 counties and cities affecting all regions of the Commonwealth. The lack of precipitation and heat led to a “rapid intensification of drought throughout the majority of the Commonwealth with substantial below-normal observations noted within the Northern Virginia and Shenandoah drought evaluation regions,” according to the DEQ. A drought warning advisory, indicating a significant drought is imminent, was in effect for the Shenandoah region, which encompasses Augusta, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Frederick, Page, Warren and Clarke counties, and for the Northern Virginia Region that covers Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Arlington and Fairfax counties. The remainder of the state was in a drought watch advisory, which is meant to help the public prepare for a potential drought. Stream flows and groundwater levels were all at or below the 25th percentile. WDBJ7 (Roanoke, Va.), June 24, 2024

Voluntary water restrictions took effect in Gretna until further notice to conserve water amid the drought. KETV Newswatch 7 (Omaha, Neb.), June 25, 2024

MD 1400 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1400 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...east central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 250150Z - 250345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation appears increasingly probable during the next hour or two, with a substantive further increase and intensification of storms through 10 PM-1 AM CDT. Initial storms may pose a risk for large hail, before the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts increases overnight. DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident within strengthening warm advection across central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin. The warm frontal zone has shifted northward some over the past several hours, but convection has been struggling to overcome inhibition associated with very warm/dry elevated mixed-layer air, despite further low-level moistening. However, as mid/upper flow transitions from broadly anticyclonic to broadly cyclonic, and low-level warm advection strengthens further in response to an intensifying low-level jet, lift appears likely to increasingly overcome inhibition. This probably will allow for a substantive increase in thunderstorm development through the 03-06Z time frame. Initial development may include evolving elevated supercells posing a risk for large hail, before activity gradually consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster with increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts later tonight. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46329383 46389212 45518962 44379066 44759290 45539427 46329383 Read more

MD 1399 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452... FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1399 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Northern Minnesota and far east central North Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452... Valid 250053Z - 250230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threats of large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter and wind gusts near 60-70 mph continue with thunderstorms along a cold front this evening. DISCUSSION...Two supercells are ongoing along and just ahead of a cold front over northern MN. These thunderstorms are within an environment where persistent deep layer shear vectors around 50 kt in magnitude are oriented nearly normal to the cold frontal forcing, suggesting discrete organized updrafts will continue through this evening. An instability axis also extends southwest to northeast along the cold front, with the most recent surface objective analysis indicating around 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Further south along the front, several convective initiation attempts have occurred, but maintenance has been unsuccessful. This may be due to slightly warmer mid to upper-level temperatures and weaker flow aloft being present there. However, attempts are still ongoing and additional thunderstorm development with southward extent cannot be ruled out. In addition to large hail and damaging winds, the tornado threat is non-zero based on the latest RAP forecast curved hodographs through 1 km, although slightly veered surface flow ahead of the front should limit the overall ambient SRH. ..Barnes.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47299748 47669719 48299613 48869520 48989465 48779464 48579381 48659322 48639282 48549261 48069314 46869441 46659669 46649724 47299748 Read more

MD 1398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0701 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas affected...Far southwestern South Dakota and northwestern NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250001Z - 250130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm intensification will be possible over the next couple of hours across portions of far southwestern SD and northwestern NE. Isolated hail up to 1.00 to 1.75" in diameter and severe wind gusts near 60-70 mph will be possible with the more robust updrafts. DISCUSSION...Both recent satellite and radar imagery indicate updraft intensification is occurring with thunderstorms along a surface trough extending northwest to southeast across the higher terrain. This is also where a mid to upper-level thermal trough exits, coincident with stronger flow aloft. Deep layer effective shear around 35-45 kt will continue to support some updraft organization through this evening. In addition, downstream observations/objective surface analysis suggest these thunderstorms will move into a more buoyant air mass, although CINH does quickly increase further east across much of central NE/SD. The main threat through this evening will likely be severe wind gusts, considering large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads/inverted V profiles, especially with merging thunderstorms and deepening cold pools. Given the expected small area of severe weather concern, weak forcing aloft, and loss of diurnal heating, a WW appears unlikely at this time. ..Barnes/Gleason.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43760299 43820314 43700376 43150335 42700273 42010254 41780232 41410187 41390137 41640092 42070093 42970119 43540194 43760299 Read more