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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...01z Update Western US... An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV. ...Red River Valley Vicinity... Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm development/organization appears probable this evening despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening. ...Southeast US into the Northeast... Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this evening, these clusters have shown organization with self propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Front Range... Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any more persistent clusters. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...01z Update Western US... An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV. ...Red River Valley Vicinity... Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm development/organization appears probable this evening despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening. ...Southeast US into the Northeast... Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this evening, these clusters have shown organization with self propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Front Range... Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any more persistent clusters. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...01z Update Western US... An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV. ...Red River Valley Vicinity... Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm development/organization appears probable this evening despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening. ...Southeast US into the Northeast... Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this evening, these clusters have shown organization with self propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Front Range... Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any more persistent clusters. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...01z Update Western US... An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV. ...Red River Valley Vicinity... Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm development/organization appears probable this evening despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening. ...Southeast US into the Northeast... Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this evening, these clusters have shown organization with self propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Front Range... Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any more persistent clusters. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...01z Update Western US... An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV. ...Red River Valley Vicinity... Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm development/organization appears probable this evening despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening. ...Southeast US into the Northeast... Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this evening, these clusters have shown organization with self propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Front Range... Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any more persistent clusters. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...01z Update Western US... An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV. ...Red River Valley Vicinity... Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm development/organization appears probable this evening despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening. ...Southeast US into the Northeast... Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this evening, these clusters have shown organization with self propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Front Range... Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any more persistent clusters. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...01z Update Western US... An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV. ...Red River Valley Vicinity... Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm development/organization appears probable this evening despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening. ...Southeast US into the Northeast... Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this evening, these clusters have shown organization with self propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Front Range... Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any more persistent clusters. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0809 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHEAST...RED RIVER VALLEY...AND FRONT RANGE... ...SUMMARY... Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind gusts and sporadic hail are possible into tonight from the Ohio Valley into the northern Mid Atlantic, the Red River Vicinity, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains. ...01z Update Western US... An upper trough over the Western US will continue to deepen as it emerges over the Great Basin and southern Rockies while a strong ridge builds over the western High Plains. Ongoing isolated storms over parts of the eastern Great Basin have shown steady organization with a few supercell structures noted. Sufficient buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear will be accompanied by intensifying upper-level support from the trough approaching this evening. With fairly sustained support into the early overnight period, the risk for damaging gusts and sporadic hail may continue for several more hours tonight, even as instability wanes. MRGL level-1 risk has been expanded over parts of ID, WY, UT and NV. ...Red River Valley Vicinity... Vigorous thunderstorm development has been noted along a remnant outflow boundary stretching from the TX Panhandle through the Red River Valley. South of this boundary, an oppressively warm and moist air mass is supporting large buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg) beneath enhanced northerly flow aloft. Sufficient for supercells and organized multicell clusters, (30-35 kt EBWD) additional storm development/organization appears probable this evening despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat, given 20+ degree temperature/dewpoint spreads and dry mid-level air. However, severe hail will also be possible with the stronger updrafts, especially any sustained rotating ones. Some upscale growth into a southward moving cluster is also possible later this evening with a risk for damaging winds into north TX. The level-2 SLGT risk area was expanded west along the Red River Valley to better encompass the threat this evening. ...Southeast US into the Northeast... Several clusters of severe thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the Southeast, OH Valley and into the Northeast CONUS. So far this evening, these clusters have shown organization with self propagating cold pools and linear structures owing to modest, but increasing deep-layer shear beneath a broad trough over the Great Lakes. Several of these more organized clusters are ongoing near the KY/TN border, western PA southern New England. Despite the loss of diurnal heating, residual buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear should remain supportive of strong to severe storms this evening. Damaging gusts appear likely to remain a threat for a few more hours, though sporadic hail and a tornado or two are also possible. ...Front Range... Widely scattered clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing from southern WY to southern CO this evening. Weak forcing for ascent from a subtle impulse rounding the top of a building ridge will gradually decrease in strength this evening. Still, relatively moist surface conditions, dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s, will likely support isolated thunderstorms into tonight. Damaging winds and isolated hail are the most likely threat, especially with any more persistent clusters. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2024 Read more

MD 1437 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1437 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0639 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Parts of south-central Oklahoma into Northeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262339Z - 270115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms may be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. The tornado threat is conditional, but present. Depending on convective trends, a watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Strong heating near an outflow boundary has promoted storm development in the last 30 minutes. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/kg) and 45-50 kts of effective shear will promote organized storms. The primary hazards will be large hail (up to 2 inches in diameter in the strongest storms) and severe wind gusts. The tornado risk does appear to be low, but is not zero. A mature storm far enough east into the outflow, where LCLs are lower and winds modestly more backed, could produce a tornado. The risk is quite conditional, however. Storm coverage is a bit uncertain as well given the departing mid-level trough to the east. ..Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 33969711 34429658 34319596 33449530 32759541 32619590 32719646 32869678 33969711 Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 468 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438 ..WENDT..06/27/24 ATTN...WFO...BOI...PIH...MSO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IDC001-005-011-013-015-023-025-027-037-039-045-047-053-059-063- 067-075-077-085-270140- ID . IDAHO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADA BANNOCK BINGHAM BLAINE BOISE BUTTE CAMAS CANYON CUSTER ELMORE GEM GOODING JEROME LEMHI LINCOLN MINIDOKA PAYETTE POWER VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0471 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0471 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1435 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1435 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0543 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...eastern Kentucky across West Virginia into parts of Maryland and Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467... Valid 262243Z - 270045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 continues. SUMMARY...Local severe risk continues across southern portions of WW 467, though weaker instability farther east casts some uncertainty on the potential need for a downstream watch across northern and western Virginia/Maryland. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows generally disorganized/sub-severe convection ongoing across eastern Kentucky and southern/eastern West Virginia at this time, east of the advancing cold front. Local risk for gusty/damaging winds remains, with the strongest cells, but overall severe potential should continue to gradually diminish this evening. Farther east, a less unstable airmass is indicated, per RAP-based objective analysis. As such, storm intensity is not expected to increase substantially. Additionally, modest flow aloft up to roughly 3 to 4 KM AGL also suggests limited potential for severe-caliber gusts. However, with that said, temperatures well into the 90s across the area are indicative of a deeply mixed boundary layer, suggestive that some evaporative cooling potential exists -- enhancing the risk for strong outflow winds locally. At this time, WW issuance appears unlikely to be needed, though if the aforementioned outflow potential could result in organized cold pool growth/expansion, greater wind risk in that scenario could require reconsideration of the need for a WW. ..Goss.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 37278409 38198180 39287951 39677856 39537632 37897713 37577911 36968216 37278409 Read more

MD 1436 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1436 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...Southern Texas Panhandle...South Plains...southwest Oklahoma and western North Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262319Z - 270045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts and isolated marginal hail are possible late this afternoon into early evening. Isolated storm coverage is expected to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along an outflow boundary where temperatures along and near it have risen into the low 100s F. Shear is not overly strong, particularly with western extent, but southerly surface winds and modest northerly mid-level flow has contributed to around 30-35 kts of effective shear. Very steep lapse rates through about 3 km and large temperature-dewpoint spreads will foster some risk of severe wind gusts (via evaporative cooling) as storms intensify and then collapse. If storms can cluster, a locally greater wind threat would exist. Currently this appears possible in southwest Oklahoma into parts of western North Texas. Additionally, some clustering could occur out of convection in the northwest Texas Panhandle and move south/southeast into the greater buoyancy. ..Wendt/Smith.. 06/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34370296 34930287 35310241 35399980 34749835 34329828 33839853 33549943 33730118 33860208 34200277 34370296 Read more

WW 0470 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0470 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UNV TO 10 WSW IPT TO 30 S ELM TO 25 SW BGM TO 25 NE MSV. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC105-262340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN PAC005-015-019-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-109-113-115-119- 127-131-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRADFORD BUTLER COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UNV TO 10 WSW IPT TO 30 S ELM TO 25 SW BGM TO 25 NE MSV. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC105-262340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN PAC005-015-019-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-109-113-115-119- 127-131-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRADFORD BUTLER COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UNV TO 10 WSW IPT TO 30 S ELM TO 25 SW BGM TO 25 NE MSV. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC105-262340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN PAC005-015-019-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-109-113-115-119- 127-131-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRADFORD BUTLER COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UNV TO 10 WSW IPT TO 30 S ELM TO 25 SW BGM TO 25 NE MSV. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC105-262340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN PAC005-015-019-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-109-113-115-119- 127-131-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRADFORD BUTLER COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE UNV TO 10 WSW IPT TO 30 S ELM TO 25 SW BGM TO 25 NE MSV. ..GOSS..06/26/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC105-262340- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SULLIVAN PAC005-015-019-037-069-079-081-093-097-103-107-109-113-115-119- 127-131-262340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BRADFORD BUTLER COLUMBIA LACKAWANNA LUZERNE LYCOMING MONTOUR NORTHUMBERLAND PIKE SCHUYLKILL SNYDER SULLIVAN SUSQUEHANNA UNION WAYNE WYOMING THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 464 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA LE 261710Z - 270100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 464 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 110 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern New York Northeast Ohio Northern Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop along a surface boundary across northern Pennsylvania through the afternoon. The more intense storms will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Youngstown OH to 10 miles east southeast of Monticello NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more