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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A threat for all severe hazards is possible this afternoon into evening over portions of the central/northern High Plains. Damaging to severe gusts may occur near a separate front, mainly from the Ozarks to Ohio. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue over much of the northern CONUS from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Great Lakes, with numerous embedded vorticity maxima and shortwaves of varying amplitudes. Of those, the most important for this outlook will be a shortwave trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over northern Rockies. This feature should dig southeastward to southwestern ND, southeastern MT, northwestern WY and southeastern ID by 00Z. By the end of the period (12Z), the trough should extend diagonal across SD, then to southeastern WY and northwestern CO. Subtropical ridging will persist over the Gulf Coast States and portions of southern CA/AZ, with a height weakness in between, over northwestern MX and NM. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across Lake Michigan, northwestern IL, central MO, and southeastern KS, becoming quasistationary across northwestern OK and the TX Panhandle to northeastern NM. By 00Z, the front should move to Lake Huron, northwestern OH, southern IN, southern MO, while drifting southward again to northeastern and west-central OK and the southern Panhandle/northern South Plains region of TX. By 12Z, the front should extend over western parts of NY/PA, eastern/southern KY, and north-central AR, becoming a warm front over north-central/ northwestern OK. Cyclogenesis is forecast late this afternoon through this evening along a lee trough over east-central CO, with a cold front developing from the NE Sandhills into northeastern/ central CO by 06Z. By 12Z, the low should migrate to central NE, with warm front over southern IA, and cold front southwestward across western KS to northeastern NM. ...Central/northern High Plains and vicinity... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain near the Palmer and Cheyenne Ridges and near lee trough, increasing in coverage while moving eastward to southeastward over the High Plains. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and damaging wind (some gusts over 70 mph) are expected over the north-central High Plains, and a couple tornadoes also are possible, mainly in and near western NE where some overlap of favorable moisture and low-level shear is expected. As the mid/upper trough approaches, expect a favorable strengthening of large-scale lift, winds aloft, deep shear, and mass response leading to northward moisture advection/transport, to the north of the southern frontal zone. Optimal moisture return may be precluded by effects of ongoing clouds/precip to reinforce the baroclinic zone over the southern Plains; however, boundary-layer moisture should be sufficient to support development as heating of higher terrain preferentially erodes MLCINH. Steep low/middle-level lapse rates will contribute to development of 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in a corridor from eastern CO and northwestern KS to southwestern SD, decreasing from there westward toward the Bighorns and southward into less-unstable conditions of the Panhandles and northeastern NM. Veering of winds with height east of the lee trough will contribute to favorable vertical shear for supercells and organized/upscale- coalescing multicells, the latter being most commonly progged over parts of eastern CO and northwestern KS (where wind probabilities are relatively maximized). Low-level hodographs should be relatively maximized in size over western NE, and rather elongated over a broader swath of the central High Plains, supporting large to significant hail production. ...Lower Ohio Valley region... Widely scattered to scattered, multicell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and focus mainly near the front and prefrontal outflow/differential-heating boundaries, from northern OK to the Lower Great Lakes. The greatest concentration of convection is still expected over the area from the Ozarks to central OH from late afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings suggest that diurnal heating and rich boundary-layer moisture, represented by upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints, will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to support peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 2500-3500 J/kg range over the Ozarks, to 1000-2000 J/kg in OH. Conversely, low-level and deep-layer shear will be fairly weak overall, and decreasing with southwestward extent. Damaging to severe gusts will be the main concern. A few short- lived convective clusters are possible, with locally maximized potential for severe gusts. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A threat for all severe hazards is possible this afternoon into evening over portions of the central/northern High Plains. Damaging to severe gusts may occur near a separate front, mainly from the Ozarks to Ohio. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue over much of the northern CONUS from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Great Lakes, with numerous embedded vorticity maxima and shortwaves of varying amplitudes. Of those, the most important for this outlook will be a shortwave trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over northern Rockies. This feature should dig southeastward to southwestern ND, southeastern MT, northwestern WY and southeastern ID by 00Z. By the end of the period (12Z), the trough should extend diagonal across SD, then to southeastern WY and northwestern CO. Subtropical ridging will persist over the Gulf Coast States and portions of southern CA/AZ, with a height weakness in between, over northwestern MX and NM. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across Lake Michigan, northwestern IL, central MO, and southeastern KS, becoming quasistationary across northwestern OK and the TX Panhandle to northeastern NM. By 00Z, the front should move to Lake Huron, northwestern OH, southern IN, southern MO, while drifting southward again to northeastern and west-central OK and the southern Panhandle/northern South Plains region of TX. By 12Z, the front should extend over western parts of NY/PA, eastern/southern KY, and north-central AR, becoming a warm front over north-central/ northwestern OK. Cyclogenesis is forecast late this afternoon through this evening along a lee trough over east-central CO, with a cold front developing from the NE Sandhills into northeastern/ central CO by 06Z. By 12Z, the low should migrate to central NE, with warm front over southern IA, and cold front southwestward across western KS to northeastern NM. ...Central/northern High Plains and vicinity... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain near the Palmer and Cheyenne Ridges and near lee trough, increasing in coverage while moving eastward to southeastward over the High Plains. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and damaging wind (some gusts over 70 mph) are expected over the north-central High Plains, and a couple tornadoes also are possible, mainly in and near western NE where some overlap of favorable moisture and low-level shear is expected. As the mid/upper trough approaches, expect a favorable strengthening of large-scale lift, winds aloft, deep shear, and mass response leading to northward moisture advection/transport, to the north of the southern frontal zone. Optimal moisture return may be precluded by effects of ongoing clouds/precip to reinforce the baroclinic zone over the southern Plains; however, boundary-layer moisture should be sufficient to support development as heating of higher terrain preferentially erodes MLCINH. Steep low/middle-level lapse rates will contribute to development of 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in a corridor from eastern CO and northwestern KS to southwestern SD, decreasing from there westward toward the Bighorns and southward into less-unstable conditions of the Panhandles and northeastern NM. Veering of winds with height east of the lee trough will contribute to favorable vertical shear for supercells and organized/upscale- coalescing multicells, the latter being most commonly progged over parts of eastern CO and northwestern KS (where wind probabilities are relatively maximized). Low-level hodographs should be relatively maximized in size over western NE, and rather elongated over a broader swath of the central High Plains, supporting large to significant hail production. ...Lower Ohio Valley region... Widely scattered to scattered, multicell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and focus mainly near the front and prefrontal outflow/differential-heating boundaries, from northern OK to the Lower Great Lakes. The greatest concentration of convection is still expected over the area from the Ozarks to central OH from late afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings suggest that diurnal heating and rich boundary-layer moisture, represented by upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints, will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to support peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 2500-3500 J/kg range over the Ozarks, to 1000-2000 J/kg in OH. Conversely, low-level and deep-layer shear will be fairly weak overall, and decreasing with southwestward extent. Damaging to severe gusts will be the main concern. A few short- lived convective clusters are possible, with locally maximized potential for severe gusts. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A threat for all severe hazards is possible this afternoon into evening over portions of the central/northern High Plains. Damaging to severe gusts may occur near a separate front, mainly from the Ozarks to Ohio. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue over much of the northern CONUS from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Great Lakes, with numerous embedded vorticity maxima and shortwaves of varying amplitudes. Of those, the most important for this outlook will be a shortwave trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over northern Rockies. This feature should dig southeastward to southwestern ND, southeastern MT, northwestern WY and southeastern ID by 00Z. By the end of the period (12Z), the trough should extend diagonal across SD, then to southeastern WY and northwestern CO. Subtropical ridging will persist over the Gulf Coast States and portions of southern CA/AZ, with a height weakness in between, over northwestern MX and NM. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across Lake Michigan, northwestern IL, central MO, and southeastern KS, becoming quasistationary across northwestern OK and the TX Panhandle to northeastern NM. By 00Z, the front should move to Lake Huron, northwestern OH, southern IN, southern MO, while drifting southward again to northeastern and west-central OK and the southern Panhandle/northern South Plains region of TX. By 12Z, the front should extend over western parts of NY/PA, eastern/southern KY, and north-central AR, becoming a warm front over north-central/ northwestern OK. Cyclogenesis is forecast late this afternoon through this evening along a lee trough over east-central CO, with a cold front developing from the NE Sandhills into northeastern/ central CO by 06Z. By 12Z, the low should migrate to central NE, with warm front over southern IA, and cold front southwestward across western KS to northeastern NM. ...Central/northern High Plains and vicinity... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain near the Palmer and Cheyenne Ridges and near lee trough, increasing in coverage while moving eastward to southeastward over the High Plains. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and damaging wind (some gusts over 70 mph) are expected over the north-central High Plains, and a couple tornadoes also are possible, mainly in and near western NE where some overlap of favorable moisture and low-level shear is expected. As the mid/upper trough approaches, expect a favorable strengthening of large-scale lift, winds aloft, deep shear, and mass response leading to northward moisture advection/transport, to the north of the southern frontal zone. Optimal moisture return may be precluded by effects of ongoing clouds/precip to reinforce the baroclinic zone over the southern Plains; however, boundary-layer moisture should be sufficient to support development as heating of higher terrain preferentially erodes MLCINH. Steep low/middle-level lapse rates will contribute to development of 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in a corridor from eastern CO and northwestern KS to southwestern SD, decreasing from there westward toward the Bighorns and southward into less-unstable conditions of the Panhandles and northeastern NM. Veering of winds with height east of the lee trough will contribute to favorable vertical shear for supercells and organized/upscale- coalescing multicells, the latter being most commonly progged over parts of eastern CO and northwestern KS (where wind probabilities are relatively maximized). Low-level hodographs should be relatively maximized in size over western NE, and rather elongated over a broader swath of the central High Plains, supporting large to significant hail production. ...Lower Ohio Valley region... Widely scattered to scattered, multicell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and focus mainly near the front and prefrontal outflow/differential-heating boundaries, from northern OK to the Lower Great Lakes. The greatest concentration of convection is still expected over the area from the Ozarks to central OH from late afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings suggest that diurnal heating and rich boundary-layer moisture, represented by upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints, will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to support peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 2500-3500 J/kg range over the Ozarks, to 1000-2000 J/kg in OH. Conversely, low-level and deep-layer shear will be fairly weak overall, and decreasing with southwestward extent. Damaging to severe gusts will be the main concern. A few short- lived convective clusters are possible, with locally maximized potential for severe gusts. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A threat for all severe hazards is possible this afternoon into evening over portions of the central/northern High Plains. Damaging to severe gusts may occur near a separate front, mainly from the Ozarks to Ohio. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, broadly cyclonic flow will continue over much of the northern CONUS from the Pacific Northwest to the Upper Great Lakes, with numerous embedded vorticity maxima and shortwaves of varying amplitudes. Of those, the most important for this outlook will be a shortwave trough now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over northern Rockies. This feature should dig southeastward to southwestern ND, southeastern MT, northwestern WY and southeastern ID by 00Z. By the end of the period (12Z), the trough should extend diagonal across SD, then to southeastern WY and northwestern CO. Subtropical ridging will persist over the Gulf Coast States and portions of southern CA/AZ, with a height weakness in between, over northwestern MX and NM. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front across Lake Michigan, northwestern IL, central MO, and southeastern KS, becoming quasistationary across northwestern OK and the TX Panhandle to northeastern NM. By 00Z, the front should move to Lake Huron, northwestern OH, southern IN, southern MO, while drifting southward again to northeastern and west-central OK and the southern Panhandle/northern South Plains region of TX. By 12Z, the front should extend over western parts of NY/PA, eastern/southern KY, and north-central AR, becoming a warm front over north-central/ northwestern OK. Cyclogenesis is forecast late this afternoon through this evening along a lee trough over east-central CO, with a cold front developing from the NE Sandhills into northeastern/ central CO by 06Z. By 12Z, the low should migrate to central NE, with warm front over southern IA, and cold front southwestward across western KS to northeastern NM. ...Central/northern High Plains and vicinity... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon -- initially over higher terrain near the Palmer and Cheyenne Ridges and near lee trough, increasing in coverage while moving eastward to southeastward over the High Plains. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and damaging wind (some gusts over 70 mph) are expected over the north-central High Plains, and a couple tornadoes also are possible, mainly in and near western NE where some overlap of favorable moisture and low-level shear is expected. As the mid/upper trough approaches, expect a favorable strengthening of large-scale lift, winds aloft, deep shear, and mass response leading to northward moisture advection/transport, to the north of the southern frontal zone. Optimal moisture return may be precluded by effects of ongoing clouds/precip to reinforce the baroclinic zone over the southern Plains; however, boundary-layer moisture should be sufficient to support development as heating of higher terrain preferentially erodes MLCINH. Steep low/middle-level lapse rates will contribute to development of 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE in a corridor from eastern CO and northwestern KS to southwestern SD, decreasing from there westward toward the Bighorns and southward into less-unstable conditions of the Panhandles and northeastern NM. Veering of winds with height east of the lee trough will contribute to favorable vertical shear for supercells and organized/upscale- coalescing multicells, the latter being most commonly progged over parts of eastern CO and northwestern KS (where wind probabilities are relatively maximized). Low-level hodographs should be relatively maximized in size over western NE, and rather elongated over a broader swath of the central High Plains, supporting large to significant hail production. ...Lower Ohio Valley region... Widely scattered to scattered, multicell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and focus mainly near the front and prefrontal outflow/differential-heating boundaries, from northern OK to the Lower Great Lakes. The greatest concentration of convection is still expected over the area from the Ozarks to central OH from late afternoon into early evening. Forecast soundings suggest that diurnal heating and rich boundary-layer moisture, represented by upper 60s to lower 70s surface dewpoints, will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates enough to support peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 2500-3500 J/kg range over the Ozarks, to 1000-2000 J/kg in OH. Conversely, low-level and deep-layer shear will be fairly weak overall, and decreasing with southwestward extent. Damaging to severe gusts will be the main concern. A few short- lived convective clusters are possible, with locally maximized potential for severe gusts. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 07/03/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031128
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP91):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
offshore of the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development of this system, and a short-lived tropical
depression could form within the next day or so while it moves
northward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore of
the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system is forecast to move
over cooler waters on Friday, and thereafter further development is
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium....50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Mid-Atlantic... For Saturday, severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of the Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough moves northeastward through the northern portion of the region. A cold front/surface trough pendant to the surface low in southeastern Canada will be the focus for convection by the afternoon. Models differ in the strength/position of the surface low as well as the degree of destabilization due to cloud cover. ...Central/southern High Plains... With the broad trough to the north, the surface boundary is expected to generally stall within the southern Plains and arc northwest into the central/southern High Plains vicinity. Northwest flow aloft, on Saturday and becoming stronger on Sunday, will promote some potential for severe thunderstorm development. Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at possible MCS development both days, but differ fairly substantially on the details. Sunday would appear to have greater potential given that the upper trough will dig into the southern High Plains. ...South Texas... As TC Beryl continues north-northwestward, an increase in severe weather potential may accompany its circulation as it eventually impacts parts of South Texas. Per latest NHC forecasts, this could occur as soon as this Sunday. However, uncertainty on the exact positioning and strength of this activity is too high at this time for highlights. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures. ...Mid-Atlantic... Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures. ...Mid-Atlantic... Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures. ...Mid-Atlantic... Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms are most likely across parts of the upper Ohio Valley on Friday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to track eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enhanced mid-level winds will extend westward into the central Plains/Rockies. The mid-level jet will approach the upper Ohio Valley by late afternoon. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the Midwest into the Ohio Valley, with the extent of the front trailing southwestward into the southern Plains. A warm front will roughly be positioned from the Great Lakes surface low into the Mid-Atlantic. ...Upper Ohio Valley Vicinity... Despite some concerns over cloud cover and the exact degree of destabilization and low-level lapse rates, some strong to severe storms appear possible ahead of the approaching cold front Friday afternoon into early evening. Given the very moist airmass (dewpoints in the low 70s F), it will not take a significant amount of heating to destabilize. The primary concern will be damaging wind gusts. Temperatures aloft will generally be too warm for severe hail, and storm mode will be multicellular with only occasional supercell structures. ...Mid-Atlantic... Stronger heating of a similarly moist airmass will occur. Shear will be slightly weaker than in the Ohio Valley and forcing will be more nebulous given neutral mid-level heights through the day. Storm development within the Blue Ridge is possible. If more confidence in a cluster developing and moving off the terrain becomes evident, marginal severe probabilities could be needed. ..Wendt.. 07/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest into the central and northern Rockies as a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum pivots around an anticyclone, centered just off of the California coastline tomorrow (Thursday). Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the central California Valley region through the day, promoting Elevated conditions for wildfire spread, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. By afternoon, at least a few hours will exist where 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies will also see widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-15 percent RH) amid negligible rainfall, so fuels should continue to cure. Latest guidance consensus suggests that large-scale surface wind fields are too weak to support Elevated highlights this outlook. However, at least localized wildfire-spread conditions will exist. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest into the central and northern Rockies as a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum pivots around an anticyclone, centered just off of the California coastline tomorrow (Thursday). Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the central California Valley region through the day, promoting Elevated conditions for wildfire spread, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. By afternoon, at least a few hours will exist where 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies will also see widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-15 percent RH) amid negligible rainfall, so fuels should continue to cure. Latest guidance consensus suggests that large-scale surface wind fields are too weak to support Elevated highlights this outlook. However, at least localized wildfire-spread conditions will exist. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest into the central and northern Rockies as a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum pivots around an anticyclone, centered just off of the California coastline tomorrow (Thursday). Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the central California Valley region through the day, promoting Elevated conditions for wildfire spread, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. By afternoon, at least a few hours will exist where 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies will also see widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-15 percent RH) amid negligible rainfall, so fuels should continue to cure. Latest guidance consensus suggests that large-scale surface wind fields are too weak to support Elevated highlights this outlook. However, at least localized wildfire-spread conditions will exist. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... Northwesterly mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest into the central and northern Rockies as a 40-50 kt mid-level jet maximum pivots around an anticyclone, centered just off of the California coastline tomorrow (Thursday). Deep-layer north-northwesterly flow will overspread the central California Valley region through the day, promoting Elevated conditions for wildfire spread, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley. By afternoon, at least a few hours will exist where 15 mph sustained northerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread. Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies will also see widespread dry conditions (i.e. 10-15 percent RH) amid negligible rainfall, so fuels should continue to cure. Latest guidance consensus suggests that large-scale surface wind fields are too weak to support Elevated highlights this outlook. However, at least localized wildfire-spread conditions will exist. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will overspread the northern Rockies while upper ridging prevails across much of the CONUS today. Adequate upper-support associated with the passing mid-level trough will encourage dry and windy conditions across portions of northern California and the northern Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Portions of the Sacramento Valley in California will be the first region impacted by fire weather conditions. 15+ mph sustained northerly surface winds should already be ongoing by the morning hours, with RH decreasing to 15 percent by late morning into early afternoon. Elevated highlights were added to parts of the Sacramento Valley given receptive fuels in the area. 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will also overlap with a large area of RH dropping below 15 percent across parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Fuels are also receptive to wildfire spread in this region, warranting the maintenance of Elevated highlights. Critical highlights have also been maintained across portions of the Snake River Plain in southern Idaho, where westerly surface winds may sustain well above 20 mph for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. ..Squitieri.. 07/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more